Moonshot AI share of spend on Oct 28, 2026 (Vercel)
7.82%median
3.3%15.7%
Median 7.82%Middle half 4.96% – 10.97%
Install
Moonshot AI share of spend on Oct 26, 2026 (Vercel)
The odds
67%Above 7.2%
0.6%10.5%
How the odds have moved
Above 3.9%: 87% on Oct 24, 94% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Why it moved
- Oct 25, 6 PM ETAbove 3.9%: 77% → 94%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3.9% | 94% | ▲ 1 | 92¢ | 96¢ | $1.04 | 4.9K |
| Above 7.2% | 67% | ▲ 3 | 55¢ | 68¢ | $1.47 | 24.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Moonshot AI, Vercel
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Moonshot AI reports Kim K3.1 Pro tops rivals with 64.4 on finance testMoonshot AI’s Kim K3.1 Pro is challenging Claude Opus 5.5 and GPT-6 Astra in financial analysis, while trailing both on a 3D modeling benchmark. Launched on October 23, 2026, the upgraded large language model has 3 trillion parameters and… - Moonshot AI Scales Back Cyberattack Capabilities in New Chinese AI ModelThe Beijing-based company announced the safeguards on Saturday while unveiling Kimi K3.1 Pro, which it describes as its most capable model in the three-trillion-parameter class of open-weight artificial intelligence systems. Moonshot plans…
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Moonshot AI curbs hacking ability in Kimi K3.1 Pro modelThe Chinese startup filtered cyber-related training data out of its newest model, trading some exploit capability for a safer open-weight release Moonshot AI just did something unusual for an AI lab: it made its newest model deliberately… -
Moonshot AI Cuts Hacking Skills from its New Kimi ModelChinese AI startup Moonshot AI has weakened the hacking skills of its new model, Kimi K3.1 Pro. The Beijing company announced the change on October 24. It plans to release the model's weights on November 4, 2026. Fears are growing that AI… -
Moonshot AI launches Kimi K3.1 Pro with better coding skills, reduced cyber risksMoonshot AI, the Beijing-based artificial intelligence startup, has introduced Kimi K3.1 Pro, its first major model upgrade since K3 gained global attention in July 2026. The new model, which will be announced on Saturday, October 24, is… -
Moonshot AI launches Kimi K3.1 Pro as it eyes a Hong Kong debutMoonshot AI introduced Kimi K3.1 Pro, kicking off a new series aimed squarely at tasks investors care about, notably financial analysis and software development. The company also flagged stronger 3D modeling, which it says makes the model… -
Moonshot AI releases Kimi K3.1 Pro open weights with 1M contextMoonshot AI's 3T-parameter model pairs scaled RL with a 1M-token context window, matching proprietary frontier models on agentic coding benchmarks. - Block Block releases Dessa, a full-duplex speech model trained without… - Moonshot… -
Kimi K3.1 Pro can build games, create 3D models and handle financial researchChinese AI firm Moonshot AI is back with Kimi K3.1 Pro. According to the company, it is built to do complex tasks such as building games, designing 3D models and preparing a financial research report without needing a separate tool. The… -
Moonshot AI releases Kimi K3.1 Pro open weight model to rival ClaudeJudith Murphy is a financial journalist and market analyst covering AI, technology stocks, and emerging market trends. She has contributed to multiple financial publications and brings a data-driven approach to her coverage of the… -
The Nov 4 Promise Arrives With a License Nobody Has ReadMoonshot AI has pledged to release model weights by November 4, but the repository does not exist yet on Hugging Face. Builders are left waiting for the license, which may mirror the $20 million revenue gate established for the company's… -
The next MacBook Air could arrive early next year, but OLED will have to waitApple may be about to give the MacBook Pro one of its biggest upgrades in years, but the MacBook Air apparently has to wait a little longer for its turn. According to Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman, Apple is planning to refresh the MacBook Air in… -
Moonshot AI launches Kimi K3.1 Pro, closing in on Claude Opus 5.5 in coding performanceThe new model scored 65.7% on Terminal Bench 4.0, approaching Claude Opus 5.5 while introducing a one million token context window and expanded agent capabilities. Chinese AI startup Moonshot AI has launched Kimi K3.1 Pro, its latest AI…
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions