Massachusetts Senate Election Winner

Polymarket Elections › Senate Closes Nov 3 · $52.8K traded · $21.5K at stake · prices read 27 min ago

The odds

98%Ed Markey (D)

Ed Markey (D)98%
John Deaton (R)2%

How the odds have moved

Ed Markey (D): 98% on Oct 20, 98% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
Ed Markey (D)	98%		98¢	99¢	$1.01	$38.9K
John Deaton (R)	2%		1¢	2¢	$43.48	$13.9K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Massachusetts Senate

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Massachusetts House passes $2.35B supplemental budget to close out FY26WWLP · 4 days agoBOSTON (WWLP) – The Massachusetts House of Representatives passed a $2.354 billion supplemental budget Wednesday aimed at closing out the 2026 fiscal year. The bill, which passed 152-0, includes $1.524 billion in net spending and addresses…
Massachusetts Senate Passes Bill Requiring Insurance Coverage of Cancer Screenings for FirefightersBoston's ROCK 92.9 · 6 days agoOn Thursday, Oct. 15, the Massachusetts Senate approved legislation requiring no-cost cancer screenings for eligible full-time firefighters. According to a WBUR report, the Senate approved S 3284, advancing it after… According to a WBUR…
Mass. upgraded from least competitive elections in the country to second-worstCommonWealth Beacon · 6 days agoby Chris Lisinski, CommonWealth Beacon October 19, 2026 FOR THE FIRST time since Barack Obama was president, Massachusetts did not land in dead last place in one assessment of electoral competitiveness. It came in second to last. Thanks to…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesNov 3, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$52.8K

This week$2.2K

At stake$21.5K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Massachusetts U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their re

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions