Texas Governor winner? (2026)
69%Greg Abbott
- Greg Abbott69%▲ 1
- Gina Hinojosa32%▼ 2
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California Governor Election Winner
The odds
96%Xavier Becerra
- Xavier Becerra96%
- Steve Hilton3%
- Rick Caruso<1%
- Alex Padilla<1%
- Katie Porter<1%
- Antonio Villaraigosa<1%
- Stephen Cloobeck<1%
- Butch Ware<1%
- Betty Yee<1%
- Toni Atkins<1%
- Kyle Langford<1%
- Chad Bianco<1%
11 more
- Eleni Kounalakis<1%
- Daniel Mercuri<1%
- Tony Thurmond<1%
- Michael Younger<1%
- Leo Zacky<1%
- Nicole Shanahan<1%
- Eric Swalwell<1%
- Tom Steyer<1%
- Kamala Harris<1%
- Matt Mahan<1%
- Elaine Culotti<1%
How the odds have moved
Xavier Becerra: 95% on Oct 20, 96% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier Becerra | 96% | 96¢ | 97¢ | $1.03 | $2.5M | |
| Steve Hilton | 3% | 3¢ | 3¢ | $30.30 | $3.8M | |
| Rick Caruso | <1% | 0¢ | $1.8M | |||
| Alex Padilla | <1% | 0¢ | $2M | |||
| Katie Porter | <1% | 0¢ | $1.8M | |||
| Antonio Villaraigosa | <1% | 0¢ | $1.6M | |||
| Stephen Cloobeck | <1% | 0¢ | $1.6M | |||
| Butch Ware | <1% | 0¢ | $1.3M | |||
| Betty Yee | <1% | 0¢ | $1.7M | |||
| Toni Atkins | <1% | 0¢ | $1.6M | |||
| Kyle Langford | <1% | 0¢ | $1.8M | |||
| Chad Bianco | <1% | 0¢ | $2M | |||
| Eleni Kounalakis | <1% | 0¢ | $1.4M | |||
| Daniel Mercuri | <1% | 0¢ | $1.4M | |||
| Tony Thurmond | <1% | 0¢ | $1.4M | |||
| Michael Younger | <1% | 0¢ | $1.5M | |||
| Leo Zacky | <1% | 0¢ | $1.1M | |||
| Nicole Shanahan | <1% | 0¢ | $1.8M | |||
| Eric Swalwell | <1% | 0¢ | $1.5M | |||
| Tom Steyer | <1% | 0¢ | $4.9M | |||
| Kamala Harris | <1% | 0¢ | $1.6M | |||
| Matt Mahan | <1% | 0¢ | $1.4M | |||
| Elaine Culotti | <1% | 0¢ | $1.3M |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: California Governor, Xavier Becerra, Steve Hilton
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Steve Hilton unveils his vision for California bullet trainCalifornia gubernatorial candidate Steve Hilton is pitching a dramatic end to the state’s troubled high-speed rail project — imagining a future where the multibillion-dollar undertaking is transformed into a monument to government failure… -
Steve Hilton hits Dem governor's 2028 pitch by calling out Newsom's rail recordSteve Hilton questioned California's unfinished high-speed rail project after Andy Beshear touted Democratic governors' accomplishments on HBO's 'Real Time with Bill Maher,' prompting Maher to agree. Republican California gubernatorial… -
Watch Steve Hilton's Latest Campaign Ad Masterpiece: Monument of Government FailuresBut the best part has to be Hilton's proposed solution for the disaster that is the California high speed railway: Closing down the project and labeling it the "Government Failures National Monument." That, right there, is great stuff… -
Steve Hilton discusses the CA Governor's raceRepublican candidate for California Governor Steve Hilton discusses his campaign in the final days before the midterm elections. Steve Hilton discusses the CA Governor’s race Republican candidate for California Governor Steve Hilton… -
Republican Governor Candidate Steve Hilton Gets Applause From Bill Maher’s Liberal Audience for Saying He’ll Clean Up the Streets of California (VIDEO)Steve Hilton, the Republican gubernatorial candidate for California, appeared on the Bill Maher show on Friday night, and managed to get a round of applause from Maher’s liberal audience when he vowed to clean up the streets in the state… -
Final stretch to Election Day as California’s political heavyweights deliver last pitch to votersCalifornia’s political heavyweights hit the campaign trail Saturday as early voting opened, with candidates scrambling to lock down support before Election Day and pitching voters sharply different answers to the state’s affordability and… -
Xavier Becerra Meets Black L.A. Leaders, Outlines Plans for CaliforniaHe also pledged to defend diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) programs against federal opposition and tie state homelessness funding to results. Los Angeles County Supervisor Holly Mitchell introduced Becerra, citing his service in the… -
Hilton Says He’ll Make the High-Speed-Rail-That-Isn't a Government Failures MonumentGubernatorial hopeful Steve Hilton has a satirical new ad promising to turn the few bits of California high-speed rail that are all there is to show for more than $14 billion into a national monument to government failures. Related… -
How would Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton manage California’s most precious resource, water?This story was originally published by CalMatters. California’s next governor must reckon with a state of extremes — where weather swings from drought to deluge, and water divides the land of backyard swimming pools from places where… -
Bombshell poll finds California voters say state is heading in the wrong direction — but election numbers tell a different storyDemocrat Xavier Becerra has opened up a commanding lead over Republican Steve Hilton in the race for California governor – despite Californians being so fed up with the direction of the Golden State that nearly half have seriously… -
2026 General Election: Meet the Gubernatorial and Mayoral candidatesXavier Becerra, former U.S. Health Secretary and former State Attorney General, is the Democratic candidate. Becerra wants to build more affordable homes and reduce construction costs. He wants to: Becerra aims to build toward a universal… -
California Post poll has signs of hope — except for third-place Gavin NewsomSteve Hilton is doing better than expected. That’s the key takeaway from the statewide poll conducted by The California Post among 800 likely voters from Oct. 17 to 20. The Republican candidate has run an energetic campaign, focused on…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions