Predictions › Politics › Trump administration
Not enough history yet.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
No recent headlines name this market's subject.
October 31 14% ▼ 5 November 30 55% ▼ 5 December 31 77% ▼ 4
Transgender 5+ times >99% ▲ 22 Biden / Kamala / Obama 10+ times >99% ▲ 13 SI / Super Intelligence 79% ▲ 13 19 more Animal 78% ▲ 16 Russia / Ukraine 78% ▲ 7 Hormuz / Blockade 71% ▲ 12 Data Center / Electric / Electricity 62% ▲ 23 America First / Gulf of America 61% ▼ 2 AI / Artificial Intelligence 54% ▲ 9 Gay / Palestine 54% ▲ 33 Bull / Bullshit 51% ▲ 10 Fentanyl / Deport / Deported 51% ▲ 20 Ass 48% ▼ 17 Hell 15+ times 45% ▼ 9 Fertilizer / Rural 42% ▼ 17 Drag Show 32% ▼ 32 Star 28% ▼ 14 Tax 33+ times 25% ▼ 21 Maduro 23% ▼ 5 Regulation / Regulatory 21% ▼ 7 Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency 5% ▲ 3 -No Qualifying Event- 1% ▼ 5 Vladimir Putin 86% ▼ 2 Mohammed bin Salman 77% ▼ 3 Kim Jong Un 14% ▼ 17 11 more Aleksandr Lukashenko 11% ▼ 2 King Mohammed VI 11% ▼ 2 Changpeng Zhao 11% iShowSpeed 8% ▲ 4 Lai Ching-te 7% ▲ 3 Pope Leo XIV 5% MrBeast 5% Nick Fuentes 3% Yoon Suk Yeol 3% Nicolás Maduro 2% Jair Bolsonaro 2% ▼ 1
38.55% 39.25%
Median 38.58% Middle half 38.61% – 38.75%
Anna Kelly 14% ▲ 2 Scott Jennings 14% ▼ 1 Elizabeth Pipko 6% ▲ 1 57 more Alina Habba 3% Danielle Alvarez 3% Margo Martin 3% Steven Cheung 2% ▲ 1 Kari Lake 2% ▲ 1 No new person 2% ▲ 1 Roma Daravi 2% Laura Loomer 2% ▲ 1 Monica Crowley 2% ▲ 1 Tricia McLaughlin 2% Maria Bartiromo 2% Karoline Leavitt 2% Jason Miller 1% Sage Steele 1% Tucker Carlson 1% Liz Huston 1% Natalie Harp 1% Rachel Campos-Duffy 1% ▼ 1 Spencer Pratt 1% Lara Trump 1% Jayme Franklin 1% Erika Kirk 1% Matthew Boyle 1% Taylor Budowich 1% Katie Miller 1% ▼ 1 Kush Desai 1% Ari Fleischer 1% Benny Johnson 1% Matt Walsh 1% Ben Shapiro 1% Jack Posobiec 1% Mike Cernovich 1% Dan Bongino 1% Kayleigh McEnany 1% Harrison Fields 1% Taylor Rogers 1% ▼ 1 Hogan Gidley 1% Katie Pavlich 1% ▼ 1 Lauren Bis 1% Pat Adams 1% Kaelan Dorr 1% Vanessa Broussard 1% Cara Castronuova 1% Mark Levin 1% Logan Paul 1% Jake Paul 1% Eric Daugherty 1% Ben Ferguson 1% Erin Elmore Scavino 1% ▼ 1 Tulsi Gabbard 1% Beni Rae Harmony 1% Peter Doocy 1% Sean Spicer 1% Marco Rubio 1% Kat Timpf 1% Kaylee McGhee White 1% George Santos 1% Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Trading closes Dec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET
Traded $19.2K
Today $153
This week $19.2K
At stake $3.2K
In the news 86 headlines today, 920 this week
Followed here since Oct 19, 2026
The rules This market will resolve to “Yes” if JD Vance announces that he will not run for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential election between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying announcement must definitively indicate that Vance will not run for President in 2028, or will never run for President. Statements that Vance has not made a decision on whether to run will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from JD Vance or his official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket .
A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.
For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.
Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use .