Will Russia capture Orikhiv by...?

Polymarket World › Russia & Ukraine Closes Dec 31 · $1.9K today · $517K traded · $72.7K at stake · prices read 23 min ago

The odds

32%December 31

March 31, 202727%▲ 1
June 30, 202732%
December 3132%▼ 2

How the odds have moved

March 31, 2027: 36% on Oct 20, 27% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
March 31, 2027	27%	▲ 1	26¢	28¢	$3.57	$91.3K
June 30, 2027	32%		55¢	57¢	$1.75	$12.9K
September 30	<1%			0¢		$214K
December 31	32%	▼ 2	7¢	8¢	$12.50	$199K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Ukraine, Russia, Zelensky

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Zelensky Reveals Massive Russian Barrage Amid Musk’s Starshield RestrictionNewsweek · 6 h agoOct 25, 2026 at 02:19 PM EDT Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia had launched thousands of attacks this past week before Elon Musk’s SpaceX restored its Starlink and Starshield satellite internet service in the country…
How Trump’s Hero Winston Churchill Would Handle Putin and UkraineNewsweek · 8 h agoOct 25, 2026 at 12:00 PM EDT When Donald Trump wanted to cut Keir Starmer down to size in March, he reached for his hero. "This is not Winston Churchill," the president said in the Oval Office, after Britain initially refused to let U.S…
Ukrainian President Zelensky confirms access to Starshield has been restoredcnn.com · 40 h agoAfter a week of slow Starlink speeds hindering Ukrainian military operations, the Ukrainian defense ministry announced on Saturday that full access to the military grade internet service has been restored. Voter turnout is already high in…
Russia given first championships since Ukraine invasionBBC Sport · 14 h agoWeightlifting was first included as an Olympic sport in the 1896 Games in Athens Moscow will host the 2030 World Weightlifting Championships - the first time an Olympic federation has chosen to stage a global event in Russia since the…
Melania Trump's advisor reveals how she bridged Putin, Zelenskyy to broker frontline Ukraine truceFox News · 32 h agoMarc Beckman, a senior advisor to Melania Trump, joins 'Fox & Friends Weekend' to discuss first lady Melania Trump's humanitarian efforts in Ukraine. Beckman details how the first lady successfully brokered a ceasefire in Oleshky, allowing…
Trump lauds Melania over Russia-Ukraine localised ceasefire dealAl Jazeera · 25 h agoAl Jazeera Trump lauds Melania over Russia-Ukraine localised ceasefire deal US President Donald Trump praised First Lady Melania Trump, saying she was ‘better than our professionals’ following her diplomatic efforts towards a localised…
Ukraine war briefing: Trilateral peace talks with Russia to restart, says Zelenskyythe Guardian · 3 h agoUkraine will not discuss limits to its armed forces or enforced neutrality at November meeting, president says. What we know on day 1,706A trilateral meeting between Kyiv, Washington and Moscow will take place in November aiming to restart…
First Russian diesel tanker heads to New York after Trump's deal with Putin to lower fuel pricesFox Business · 30 h agoRetired Marine Corps Maj. Gen. Arnold Punaro discusses President Donald Trump's diesel deal with Russia as a tanker heads to the US on 'America Reports.' The first tanker with 40,000 tons of diesel left for New York from Russia earlier…
Zelensky celebrates as Ukraine hits Putin's war factory with British missile and Starlink returnsThe Mirror · 21 h agoUkrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is toasting a successful victory after his forceslanded a direct hit on Putin’s war factory using British missiles, according to reports. Video shared from the battlefield appears to show a major…
Putin, citing genetics, claims Ukrainian land ‘is not their territory’The Washington Post · 3 days agoA first-time mother of the bride writes to our advice columnists: If she’s contributing money to her daughter’s upcoming nuptials … does she get any influence over whom they invite? Not much has been said about the wedding plans, the…
Massive Ukrainian drone attack hits shopping center in Russia's Belgorod Oblast, locals sayThe Kyiv Independent · 28 h agoHelp us keep bringing the truth to light, even when Russia turns the lights out. A massive swarm of Ukrainian drones attacked the Russian border region of Belgorod overnight on Oct. 25, according to local officials and eyewitness footage…
Russia Launches Deadly Missile Barrage on Ukraine Hours After Putin-US TalksNewsweek · 4 days agoOct 22, 2026 at 05:28 AM EDT Russia launched a major missile and drone attack on Ukraine just hours after U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff called President Vladimir Putin a "humanitarian" in a face-to-face meeting. Ukraine's Air Force said…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesDec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$517K

Today$1.9K

This week$23.3K

At stake$72.7K

In the news473 headlines today, 5,000 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the train station in Orikhiv (47.559860° N, 35.786219° E), Zaporizhzhia Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The train station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next final

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions