Which states will use new congressional maps in the midterms?

Polymarket Elections › Around the world Closes Nov 3 · $261 today · $442K traded · $61.2K at stake · prices read 3 min ago

The odds

99%Florida

Florida99%
North Carolina98%
Texas98%
Ohio97%▲ 1
Louisiana97%▲ 1
California96%
Utah96%▲ 1
Alabama53%▼ 4
New York5%
South Carolina4%▲ 1
Wisconsin3%
Missouri3%

10 more

Indiana3%
Washington3%
Georgia3%
New Jersey3%▼ 1
Kansas3%
Nebraska3%▼ 1
Minnesota3%▼ 1
Maryland3%
Illinois2%
Virginia2%▼ 1

How the odds have moved

Florida: 99% on Oct 20, 99% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
Florida	99%		97¢	100¢		$7.4K
North Carolina	98%		97¢	99¢		$15.7K
Texas	98%		97¢	98¢	$1.02	$21.6K
Ohio	97%	▲ 1	96¢	98¢	$1.02	$8.3K
Louisiana	97%	▲ 1	96¢	97¢	$1.03	$24.1K
California	96%		94¢	98¢	$1.02	$17.8K
Utah	96%	▲ 1	95¢	96¢	$1.04	$96.7K
Alabama	53%	▼ 4	24¢	81¢	$1.23	$20.2K
New York	5%		4¢	5¢	$18.87	$22.2K
South Carolina	4%	▲ 1	4¢	4¢	$23.81	$29.4K
Wisconsin	3%		3¢	4¢	$27.03	$24.2K
Missouri	3%		1¢	5¢	$21.74	$15.9K
Indiana	3%		2¢	4¢	$27.03	$36.1K
Washington	3%		2¢	4¢	$27.03	$11.9K
Georgia	3%		3¢	3¢	$33.33	$9.1K
New Jersey	3%	▼ 1	2¢	4¢	$26.32	$6.5K
Kansas	3%		1¢	4¢	$22.73	$9.1K
Nebraska	3%	▼ 1	2¢	4¢	$27.78	$7.9K
Minnesota	3%	▼ 1	2¢	3¢	$32.26	$17K
Maryland	3%		1¢	4¢	$25.00	$16.6K
Illinois	2%		2¢	3¢	$34.48	$12.3K
Virginia	2%	▼ 1	0¢	3¢	$29.41	$12.8K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: North Carolina

Search ›

10 Noncitizens Arrested for Illegal Voting in North CarolinaThe Epoch Times · 2 days agoTen noncitizens have been arrested and charged for allegedly casting votes illegally in various elections in North Carolina. Three people were from Germany, two from Jamaica, and one each from El Salvador, Haiti, Canada, Panama, and…
The Senate Race in North Carolina: Our Nation Needs Michael Whatleytownhall.com · 3 days agoEighteen months ago, I had the good fortune of attending a presentation by Michael Whatley, back then the national GOP chair and currently a candidate for the U.S. Senate, running against Democrat Roy Cooper. The evening with Mr. Whatley…
Donald Trump’s egregious extortion of North Carolina | OpinionRaleigh News & Observer · 3 days agoThe Trump Administration’s extortion of North Carolina through the withholding of federal funding has been one of the most egregious actions that any president has done to an American state. Recently, it has shown a continual pattern of…
Roy Cooper speaks with voters in Greensboro with one week of early voting left in North CarolinaWXII · 3 days agoDemocrat and former governor Roy Cooper spoke with voters at an early voting site in Greensboro Saturday morning as he and Republican opponent Michael Whatley drove affordability messages and attacks in the final stretch of the midterm…
North Carolina joins 25 states in urging Congress for AI regulationThe Daily Tar Heel · 3 days agoBREAKING: Miguel Salguero Olivares found guilty of first-degree murder and rape of Faith Hedgepeth The DTH extends Community Advisory Board application deadline to Oct. 28 On Sept. 23, N.C. Attorney General Jeff Jackson joined a bipartisan…
Unpacking early voting trends in North Carolina and FloridaCBS News · 4 days agoCBS News is a trusted source for the latest in politics, U.S. and world news. The network is home to award-winning broadcasts CBS Mornings, CBS Evening News, 60 Minutes, CBS Sunday Morning, 48 Hours and Face the Nation. Early voting trends…
WATCH LIVE: Roy Cooper headlines Get Out the Vote concert in North CarolinaFox News · 4 days agoDemocratic Senate nominee Roy Cooper speaks to supporters and hosts a Get Out the Vote concert in Carrboro, North Carolina. WATCH LIVE: Roy Cooper headlines Get Out the Vote concert in North Carolina Democratic Senate nominee Roy Cooper…
‘If You Have to Cheat to Win, You Don’t Deserve the Victory’: North Carolina Ballot Rejections Fuel Outrage Over New Envelope RuleThe Nerd Stash · 3 days agoDylan is an Editor at The Nerd Stash and has been writing about video games, TV, and movies for over a decade now. He typically covers horror, RPGs, shooters, Roblox, indie titles, and movies. He loves reading, pizza and skateboarding…
Transcript: Sen. Thom Tillis on "Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan," Oct. 25, 2026CBS News · 2 days agoOctober 25, 2026 / 12:34 PM EDT / CBS News The following is the transcript of the interview with Sen. Thom Tillis, Republican of North Carolina, that aired on "Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan" on Oct. 25, 2026. MARGARET BRENNAN: We…
Oct. 25 — Sen. Adam Schiff, Mike Rogers, Gov. Gretchen WhitmerNBC News · 2 days agoKristen Welker has exclusive interviews with Sen. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), Michigan Senate candidate and former Rep. Mike Rogers (R), and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer (D) nine days out from the midterm elections. Garrett Haake, former…
AG Todd Blanche says DOJ is "doing our own research under the law" with Alaska Senate challengeCBS News · 2 days agoOctober 25, 2026 / 1:38 PM EDT / CBS News Washington — Attorney General Todd Blanche said Sunday that the Justice Department was looking to "put guardrails in place" with its move to prevent the Alaska Senate election from being certified…
Meet the Press – October 25, 2026NBC News · 2 days agoThis Sunday. Final push. PRES. DONALD TRUMP:If we lose, you get nothing. KRISTEN WELKER:With just nine days until the midterms, the final sprint for control of Congress. JAMES TALARICO: We are building a movement to take back our state and…

Related markets

All around the world ›

Elections › Around the world

Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner

>99%Student List – Students Win

Student List – Students Win>99%▲ 73
Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia<1%▼ 74
Ivica Dačić – Factor of Stability!<1%

7 more

Rasim Ljajić – Humane (SDP – CDP)<1%
Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians – Dr Bálint Pásztor<1%
Usame Zukorlić Movement for Unification<1%
Russian Party – Serbia in BRICS – Slobodan Nikolić<1%
Authentic Right – Dr Miloš Jovanović<1%
European Serbia – Marinika Tepić, Zdravko Ponoš<1%
SDA of Sandžak – Guardians of Sandžak<1%

Elections › Around the world

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

>99%Lula da Silva <4%

Lula da Silva <4%>99%▲ 82
Flávio Bolsonaro 12%+<1%▼ 1
Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12%<1%▼ 5

5 more

Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8%<1%▼ 36
Flávio Bolsonaro <4%<1%▼ 38
Lula da Silva 4-8%<1%▼ 1
Lula da Silva 8-12%<1%
Lula da Silva 12%+<1%

Elections › Around the world

Israeli Legislative Election Winner

72%Yashar

Yashar72%▲ 2
Likud27%▼ 2
Together<1%

3 more

Shas<1%
The Democrats<1%
Otzma Yehudit<1%

Elections › Around the world

Israel Election: Likud # of seats?

21.6median

1639

Median 21.6Middle half 19.2 – 23.6

Elections › Around the world

Next French Presidential Election

45%Marine Le Pen

Marine Le Pen45%▲ 1
Édouard Philippe18%▲ 1
David Lisnard14%▼ 1

42 more

Jean-Luc Mélenchon11%
Raphaël Glucksmann3%▼ 1
François Hollande3%▼ 1
Bruno Retailleau1%
Éric Zemmour1%
Jordan Bardella1%
Gabriel Attal1%
Dominique de Villepin1%
Sarah Knafo1%
Christine Lagarde<1%
Xavier Bertrand<1%
Sébastien Lecornu<1%
Marion Maréchal<1%
François Ruffin<1%
Ségolène Royal<1%
François Asselineau<1%
Jean Castex<1%
Natacha Polony<1%
Laurent Wauquiez<1%
Marine Tondelier<1%
Fabien Roussel<1%
Olivier Faure<1%
Clémentine Autain<1%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan<1%
Michel Barnier<1%
Valérie Pécresse<1%
François Bayrou<1%
Élisabeth Borne<1%
Yaël Braun-Pivet<1%
Gérald Darmanin<1%
Carole Delga<1%
Bernard Cazeneuve<1%
Manuel Bompard<1%
Mathilde Panot<1%
Juan Branco<1%
Clémence Guetté<1%
Karim Bouamrane<1%
Lucie Castets<1%
Yannick Jadot<1%
François Baroin<1%
Anasse Kazib<1%
Sylvain Durif<1%

Elections › Around the world

Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election?

46%Gadi Eizenkot

Gadi Eizenkot46%▼ 10
Benjamin Netanyahu17%▼ 8
Naftali Bennett2%▼ 9

15 more

Avigdor Lieberman1%▼ 2
Yair Lapid1%
Benny Gantz1%
Yariv Levin1%
Yair Golan1%
Itamar Ben Gvir1%▼ 1
Yossi Cohen1%
Israel Katz1%
Gideon Sa'ar1%
Ayelet Shaked1%
Amir Ohana1%
Moshe Feiglin1%
Yoaz Hendel1%
Nir Barkat1%
Yuli Edelstein1%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesNov 3, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$442K

Today$261

This week$4.7K

At stake$61.2K

In the news13 headlines today, 238 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed US state uses a new congressional district map for the 2026 United States midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. To qualify, after the 2024 United States congressional elections, the listed state must have adopted a new congressional district map that is: - Formally adopted and enacted into law by the appropriate legislative or redistricting authority; - Not enjoined, vacated or otherwise fully struck down prior to the 2026 United States Midterm elections; and - In effect for use in the 2026 United States midterm elections. Maps that are temporarily stayed pending appeal but later upheld will qualify if they are in ef

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions