US x Russia military clash by...?

Polymarket World › Russia & Ukraine Closes Dec 31 · $40 today · $1.8M traded · $12.5K at stake · prices read 4 min ago

The odds

4%December 31, 2026

December 31, 20264%

How the odds have moved

December 31, 2026: 3% on Oct 20, 4% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
June 30, 2026	<1%		0¢		$2K
December 31, 2026	4%	2¢	5¢	$21.28	$1.1M
January 31	<1%		0¢		$106K
December 31	<1%	0¢	1¢		$417K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Ukraine, Russia, Zelensky

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Zelensky Adviser Slams Musk Over Claims Ukraine Violated Starlink TermsNewsweek · 16 h agoOct 26, 2026 at 09:20 AM EDT A top Ukrainian official has hit back at claims from SpaceX chief Elon Musk that Kyiv's military used the commercial Starlink satellite network for offensive drone strikes against Russian forces. Ukraine said…
Zelensky Reveals Massive Russian Barrage Amid Musk’s Starshield RestrictionNewsweek · 35 h agoOct 25, 2026 at 02:19 PM EDT Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia had launched thousands of attacks this past week before Elon Musk’s SpaceX restored its Starlink and Starshield satellite internet service in the country…
How Trump’s Hero Winston Churchill Would Handle Putin and UkraineNewsweek · 38 h agoOct 25, 2026 at 12:00 PM EDT When Donald Trump wanted to cut Keir Starmer down to size in March, he reached for his hero. "This is not Winston Churchill," the president said in the Oval Office, after Britain initially refused to let U.S…
Russia, Ukraine begin Oleshky ceasefire but keep up strikes elsewhereNew York Post · 2 h agoRussia and Ukraine have begun a regional ceasefire to allow the start of a humanitarian effort in the Russian-occupied town of Oleshky, both sides said on Tuesday, ‌but they continue strikes elsewhere, including the Ukrainian capital of…
Map shows Ukraine's battlefield advances threatening key Russian supply linesNewsweek · 13 h agoOct 26, 2026 at 12:54 PM EDT Ukrainian forces are making slow battlefield gains that might threaten Russia's ability to supply its troops, it has been reported, as a map shows the state of part of the front line. One Ukrainian military…
Russia says it will open humanitarian corridor to Ukrainian townNPR · 25 h agoRussia says it will open a humanitarian corridor to the occupied Ukrainian town of Oleshky, where people have been eating weeds and pickles to survive while trapped by minefields, shelling and drones. Russia says it will open humanitarian…
Melania Trump-brokered one-city ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine takes effectCNN · 5 h agoA localized ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine in the occupied city of Oleshky that First Lady Melania Trump helped to broker has now gone into effect, officials on both sides said Tuesday. Dmytro Lubinets, Ukraine’s parliament…
Localized Russia-Ukraine ceasefire takes effect in Oleshky in deal brokered by Melania TrumpThe Washington Post · 8 h agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. MYKOLAIV, Ukraine — A…
UN panel: Russia is committing crimes against humanity by targeting civilians in UkraineCNN · 20 h agoRussia is committing war crimes and crimes against humanity by intentionally attacking civilian infrastructure – including vital energy systems – in Ukraine, an independent UN investigations panel said on Monday. Russian forces have been…
Zelensky Rules Out Land Swap With Russia, Says Lifting Sanctions Before Putin Talks Would Weaken UkrainePatrika News · 31 h agoSanctions relief before talks would weaken Ukraine's hand Zelensky opposed lifting sanctions on Russia ahead of a possible trilateral meeting involving the leaders of Russia, Ukraine and the United States. He said the sanctions were…
Ukraine war briefing: Russia strikes Kyiv hours before truce begins in war-ravaged city Oleshkythe Guardian · 8 h agoZelenskyy says ballistic missiles hit crowded areas with no military facilities nearby; truce comes amid reports of growing humanitarian crisis. What we know on day 1,707Russian strikes on Kyiv killed one person and wounded eight, with…
Russia given first championships since Ukraine invasionBBC Sport · 43 h agoWeightlifting was first included as an Olympic sport in the 1896 Games in Athens Moscow will host the 2030 World Weightlifting Championships - the first time an Olympic federation has chosen to stage a global event in Russia since the…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesDec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$1.8M

Today$40

This week$553

At stake$12.5K

In the news593 headlines today, 5,000 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Russia between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between U.S. and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify. Intentional physical collisions, including aerial

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions