Which bills will become law in 2026?

Polymarket Politics › Trump administration Closes Dec 31 · $39 today · $187K traded · $44K at stake · prices read 34 min ago

The odds

31%Export-control chip security
  • Export-control chip security31%
  • FISA Section 702 reauthorization18%▼ 1
  • AI-chip export licensing17%▼ 6
  • Data center utility cost protection17%
  • Credit-card routing competition16%
  • Film/TV production expensing12%▼ 1
  • NO FAKES Act9%▼ 2
  • Critical-minerals stockpile8%
  • DEFIANCE Act8%▲ 2
  • $2.50 Coin8%▲ 1
  • Smithsonian Women’s History Museum6%
  • SHOWER Act4%▲ 1
2 more
  • SELF DRIVE Act4%
  • Trump Airport2%▼ 1

How the odds have moved

Not enough history yet.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Traded
✓ Housing for the 21st Century Act >99% 100¢ 100¢ $46K
Export-control chip security 31% 30¢ 31¢ $3.23 $4.4K
FISA Section 702 reauthorization 18% ▼ 1 15¢ 20¢ $5.00 $111K
AI-chip export licensing 17% ▼ 6 15¢ 19¢ $5.26 $6.2K
Data center utility cost protection 17% 15¢ 19¢ $5.26 $3.4K
Credit-card routing competition 16% 14¢ 17¢ $5.75 $1.3K
Film/TV production expensing 12% ▼ 1 12¢ 12¢ $8.06 $3.6K
NO FAKES Act 9% ▼ 2 6¢ 12¢ $8.33 $785
Critical-minerals stockpile 8% 7¢ 9¢ $11.11 $1.7K
DEFIANCE Act 8% ▲ 2 3¢ 13¢ $7.58 $966
$2.50 Coin 8% ▲ 1 6¢ 9¢ $11.11 $697
Smithsonian Women’s History Museum 6% 5¢ 7¢ $13.51 $4.3K
SHOWER Act 4% ▲ 1 2¢ 7¢ $14.49 $696
SELF DRIVE Act 4% 2¢ 6¢ $17.54 $446
Trump Airport 2% ▼ 1 0¢ 3¢ $29.41 $1.9K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news

No recent headlines name this market's subject.

What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Kansas?

>99%Transgender 5+ times
  • Transgender 5+ times>99%▲ 22
  • SI / Super Intelligence>99%▲ 33
  • Star>99%▲ 59
19 more
  • Gay / Palestine>99%▲ 79
  • Biden / Kamala / Obama 10+ times>99%▲ 13
  • Regulation / Regulatory100%▲ 72
  • Ass1%▼ 64
  • Bull / Bullshit1%▼ 40
  • Fertilizer / Rural1%▼ 47
  • Animal1%▼ 62
  • Drag Show1%▼ 64
  • Maduro1%▼ 26
  • Data Center / Electric / Electricity1%▼ 38
  • Russia / Ukraine1%▼ 72
  • Hormuz / Blockade1%▼ 58
  • Fentanyl / Deport / Deported1%▼ 31
  • America First / Gulf of America1%▼ 62
  • Hell 15+ times<1%▼ 54
  • Tax 33+ times<1%▼ 45
  • AI / Artificial Intelligence<1%▼ 45
  • Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency<1%▼ 2
  • -No Qualifying Event-<1%▼ 3

Who will Trump meet with in 2026?

86%Vladimir Putin
  • Vladimir Putin86%▼ 2
  • Mohammed bin Salman78%▼ 2
  • Kim Jong Un19%▼ 11
11 more
  • Aleksandr Lukashenko11%▼ 3
  • Changpeng Zhao11%
  • King Mohammed VI9%▼ 3
  • iShowSpeed8%▲ 4
  • Lai Ching-te7%▲ 3
  • Pope Leo XIV5%
  • MrBeast5%
  • Nick Fuentes3%
  • Yoon Suk Yeol3%
  • Nicolás Maduro2%
  • Jair Bolsonaro2%▼ 1

Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary? (Before Jan 20, 2029)

14%Anna Kelly
  • Anna Kelly14%▼ 1
  • Scott Jennings14%▼ 1
  • Elizabeth Pipko6%▲ 1
57 more
  • Alina Habba3%
  • Danielle Alvarez3%
  • Margo Martin3%
  • Steven Cheung2%
  • Kari Lake2%▼ 1
  • No new person2%▲ 1
  • Roma Daravi2%
  • Laura Loomer2%▲ 1
  • Monica Crowley2%▲ 1
  • Tricia McLaughlin2%
  • Maria Bartiromo2%
  • Karoline Leavitt2%▲ 1
  • Jason Miller1%
  • Sage Steele1%
  • Tucker Carlson1%
  • Liz Huston1%
  • Natalie Harp1%
  • Rachel Campos-Duffy1%▼ 1
  • Spencer Pratt1%
  • Lara Trump1%
  • Jayme Franklin1%
  • Erika Kirk1%
  • Matthew Boyle1%
  • Taylor Budowich1%
  • Katie Miller1%▼ 1
  • Kush Desai1%
  • Ari Fleischer1%
  • Benny Johnson1%
  • Matt Walsh1%
  • Ben Shapiro1%
  • Jack Posobiec1%
  • Mike Cernovich1%
  • Dan Bongino1%
  • Kayleigh McEnany1%
  • Harrison Fields1%
  • Taylor Rogers1%▼ 1
  • Hogan Gidley1%
  • Katie Pavlich1%▼ 1
  • Lauren Bis1%
  • Pat Adams1%
  • Kaelan Dorr1%
  • Vanessa Broussard1%
  • Cara Castronuova1%
  • Mark Levin1%
  • Logan Paul1%
  • Jake Paul1%
  • Eric Daugherty1%
  • Ben Ferguson1%
  • Erin Elmore Scavino1%▼ 1
  • Tulsi Gabbard1%
  • Beni Rae Harmony1%
  • Peter Doocy1%
  • Sean Spicer1%
  • Marco Rubio1%
  • Kat Timpf1%
  • Kaylee McGhee White1%
  • George Santos1%
KalshiCloses Jan 27, 2029 · $17.4K today

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.