Fed Decision in October?
94%No change
- No change94%▼ 1
- 25 bps increase6%▲ 2
- 50+ bps increase<1%
2 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
- 25 bps decrease<1%
Install
Hike 25 bps flips No change for October Fed by October 27?
The odds
1%chance
How the odds have moved
Yes: 10% on Oct 20, 1% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 21, 7 PM ET10% → 3%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 0¢ | 2¢ | $52.63 | $3.8K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Federal Reserve, Fed, FOMC
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Jeff Sica discusses tech AI spending and Federal Reserve rate expectationsCircle Squared Alternative Investments founder Jeff Sica discusses high-stakes AI spending from Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon during a busy earnings week on 'Varney & Co.' Sica warns that tech companies must deliver on artificial… -
Federal Reserve to announce its latest interest rate move this week. Here's what economists expect.October 26, 2026 / 4:10 PM EDT / CBS News The Federal Reserve is scheduled to meet this week, when U.S. central bankers will decide whether to raise interest rates for the second time this year in a bid to subdue inflation. Most economists… -
Federal Reserve is likely to hold interest rates steady in October. Here's what that means for consumersThe Federal Reserve is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its upcoming October meeting — even as higher energy costs complicate the inflation outlook and put additional pressure on household budgets. The consumer price index, a… -
Federal Reserve expected to tap brakes on rate hikesThe Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged Wednesday before raising them again in December. The decision would represent a win for the Trump administration, whose allies have urged the central bank against… -
5 things to watch from the Federal Reserve's next meetingWASHINGTON – Federal Reserve policymakers are likely to keep their key interest rate unchanged Wednesday when they finish what may seem like an uneventful meeting. But investors and economists will be looking between the lines of the… -
Here's Exactly What Investors Should Look for From the Federal Reserve's October MeetingIt's almost here. On Wednesday afternoon, the Federal Reserve will announce its decision on the federal funds rate, which serves as the basis for other interest rates, such as loan rates and bond yields. That's why so many people are… -
Five things to watch from the Federal Reserve’s next meetingThe Fed’s Oct. 27-28 meeting will be the fourth of Chairman Kevin Warsh’s tenure, which has been marked by questions regarding his independence from President Donald Trump, who appointed him earlier this year. It also comes just six days… -
Bitfinex: Bitcoin Tests $79,250 Support As Upcoming Federal Reserve Rate Decision LoomsHome > Bitcoin News > Bitfinex: Bitcoin Tests $79,250 Support As Upcoming Federal Reserve Rate Decision Looms Bitcoin fell to $79,250 last week, recording a 9.3% correction, its steepest pullback since the lows reached in July, according… -
Federal Reserve Rate Decision Leads Packed Economic Calendar Impacting Crypto MarketsHome > Markets > Federal Reserve Rate Decision Leads Packed Economic Calendar Impacting Crypto Markets The crypto market faces a week packed with major economic announcements, led by the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision… -
4 Investments That Could Make Sense If the Federal Reserve Raises Interest RatesAfter the Federal Reserve recently decided to raise interest rates to cool an uptick in inflation, much of Wall Street and Main Street are trying to understand what its next move will be. According to a recent CNBC article, the chances of… -
Gold eases on firmer dollar ahead of Fed decisionGold slipped on Tuesday, weighed down by a firmer U.S. dollar, while investors looked ahead to the Federal Reserve's policy meeting for fresh guidance on the outlook for interest rates. Spot gold eased 0.2% to $4,007.29 per ounce by 0321… -
The Federal Reserve is set to hold rates this week: Why a December hike is virtually fully priced anywayThe US Dollar (USD) maintains a well-supported stance across global FX markets as traders anticipate the Federal Reserve will keep the Fed funds rate steady at 3.75–4.00% at its upcoming policy meeting on Wednesday. The US Dollar (USD)…
Related markets
All the fed ›How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
96%0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps)96%
- 1 (25 bps)2%
- 3 (75 bps)<1%
10 more
- 2 (50 bps)<1%
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
- 6 (150 bps)<1%
- 7 (175 bps)<1%
- 5 (125 bps)<1%
- 8 (200 bps)<1%
- 9 (225 bps)<1%
- 10 (250 bps)<1%
- 11 (275 bps)<1%
- 12+ (300+ bps)<1%
Fed Decision in December?
74%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase74%▼ 2
- No change21%▲ 1
- 50+ bps increase3%
2 more
- 50+ bps decrease1%
- 25 bps decrease1%
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
75%2 (50 bps)
- 2 (50 bps)75%▲ 4
- 1 (25 bps)22%▼ 1
- 3 (75 bps)3%▼ 2
2 more
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
- 5+ (125+ bps)<1%
Fed funds rate after Dec 2026 meeting?
4.11%median
2.5%5.5%
Median 4.11%Middle half 4.03% – 4.2%
SOFR for October 26, 2026
3.91%median
3.85%3.92%
Median 3.91%Middle half 3.91% – 3.91%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions