Fed Decision in October?
94%No change
- No change94%▼ 1
- 25 bps increase6%▲ 1
- 50+ bps increase<1%
2 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
- 25 bps decrease<1%
Install
What will Kevin Warsh say during October Press Conference?
The odds
95%Good Day
- Good Day95%▲ 3
- Good Question87%▼ 6
- Conflict / Middle East73%▲ 6
- Oil / Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas67%▼ 8
- Price 30+ times57%▼ 17
- Pressure / Stagflation57%▲ 7
- President / Trump56%▼ 8
- CapEx / Capital Expenditure52%▼ 20
- Inflation 20+ times50%▼ 2
- AI / Artificial Intelligence 3+ times47%▲ 2
- Payroll39%
- SI / Super Intelligence29%▲ 2
8 more
- Pandemic / Recession28%▲ 1
- Unchanged / Dissent28%▼ 16
- Soft / Softening25%▼ 3
- Oversight25%▲ 1
- Software12%▼ 4
- Gold / Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency8%▼ 4
- Good Afternoon5%▼ 1
- -No Qualifying Event-1%
How the odds have moved
Good Day: 94% on Oct 20, 95% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Good Day | 95% | ▲ 3 | 94¢ | 96¢ | $1.04 | $618 |
| Good Question | 87% | ▼ 6 | 81¢ | 93¢ | $1.08 | $161 |
| Conflict / Middle East | 73% | ▲ 6 | 70¢ | 76¢ | $1.32 | $597 |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas | 67% | ▼ 8 | 64¢ | 69¢ | $1.45 | $180 |
| Price 30+ times | 57% | ▼ 17 | 54¢ | 61¢ | $1.64 | $244 |
| Pressure / Stagflation | 57% | ▲ 7 | 54¢ | 60¢ | $1.67 | $98 |
| President / Trump | 56% | ▼ 8 | 53¢ | 59¢ | $1.69 | $236 |
| CapEx / Capital Expenditure | 52% | ▼ 20 | 50¢ | 54¢ | $1.85 | $133 |
| Inflation 20+ times | 50% | ▼ 2 | 48¢ | 52¢ | $1.92 | $68 |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence 3+ times | 47% | ▲ 2 | 44¢ | 50¢ | $2.00 | $887 |
| Payroll | 39% | 31¢ | 47¢ | $2.13 | $445 | |
| SI / Super Intelligence | 29% | ▲ 2 | 26¢ | 32¢ | $3.13 | $3.5K |
| Pandemic / Recession | 28% | ▲ 1 | 14¢ | 41¢ | $2.44 | $65 |
| Unchanged / Dissent | 28% | ▼ 16 | 25¢ | 30¢ | $3.33 | $35 |
| Soft / Softening | 25% | ▼ 3 | 22¢ | 28¢ | $3.57 | $2 |
| Oversight | 25% | ▲ 1 | 13¢ | 36¢ | $2.78 | $48 |
| Software | 12% | ▼ 4 | 9¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | |
| Gold / Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency | 8% | ▼ 4 | 5¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | |
| Good Afternoon | 5% | ▼ 1 | 4¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | $224 |
| -No Qualifying Event- | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $459 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Kevin Warsh, Press Conference, Good Day
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Hegemony Sports, 8am - Good Day at your Game!A local organization is helping make sports mode accessible for families from all backgrounds. Hegemony Sports, 8am - Good Day at your Game! Taste testing the new Pepsi Vanilla & Cream flavors! 8am From Scratch with Love Catering, 8am… - 10/24/26: Rays Press ConferenceThe Rays speak to the media | 10/24/2026 MLB.com 10/24/26: Rays Press Conference Watch as Kevin Cash, Freddy Peralta and Taylor Walls speak to the media prior to Game 2 of the World Series
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WATCH: Postgame Press Conferences vs. OklahomaMississippi State WATCH: Postgame Press Conferences vs. Oklahoma October 24, 2026 | Football Head Coach Jeff Lebby Edge Amaree Williams & Center Canon Boone -
Will Stein Post-Vanderbilt Press ConferenceWill Stein Post-Vanderbilt Press Conference -
Good Day Garage Doors Maryville Introduces Guidance for Homeowners Selecting Residential Garage DoorsNEW YORK, Oct. 24, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- MARYVILLE, TN - October 25, 2026 - PRESSADVANTAGE - For households that use the garage as a primary entry point, daily wear becomes an important consideration. Frequent use places added demand on… -
VIDEO: Dayton basketball: Amael L’Etang, Aiden Derkack press conferenceDayton Daily News VIDEO: Dayton basketball: Amael LâEtang, Aiden Derkack press conference after Morehead State game on Oct. 24, 2026 Dayton basketball: Flyers show depth in dominant performance vs. Morehead State Dayton Flyers forward… - 2018 judges’ press conference was an ‘earthquake’ that exposed fault lines in judiciary: Justice SK KaulDescribing the January 12, 2018 press conference by four senior-most judges of the Supreme Court as an “earthquake”, former Supreme Court judge Sanjay Kishan Kaul has said that it did not serve any purpose, exposed fault lines in the…
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United States Grand Prix Qualifying Top Three Press ConferenceTranscript from the FIA-hosted top three press conference after Qualifying for the United States Grand Prix, Round 18 of 2026 FIA Formula 1 World Championship, at COTA. United States Grand Prix Qualifying Top Three Press Conference Full… -
Stanford Women's Basketball: Pacific Postgame Press Conference (10/24/26)Stanford Cardinal Stanford Women's Basketball: Pacific Postgame Press Conference (10/24/26) -
Video replay: UFC 333 post-fight press conferenceDana White, DWCS 89 post-fight interview ABU DHABI – UFC 333 takes place Saturday at Etihad Arena, and you can watch a live video stream of the post-event news conference here on MMA Junkie. Expected to take part in the press conference… -
Formula 1 News: 2026 United States GP Post-Qualifying Press ConferenceHighlights from the F1 2026 United States GP Post-Qualifying Press Conference at the Circuit of the Americas. DRIVERS 1 – Kimi ANTONELLI (Mercedes) 2 – Max VERSTAPPEN (Red Bull Racing) 3 – Isack HADJAR (Red Bull Racing) PARC FERMÉ… - Ilhan Omar SKIPS Press Conference As BOMBSHELL Marriage Certificate EXPOSES FRAUD Marriage!This video from Black Conservative Perspective examines allegations of immigration and financial fraud leveled against Congresswoman Ilhan Omar (0:00 - 20:53). Marital Allegations: The host discusses claims that Omar allegedly married her…
Related markets
All the fed ›How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
96%0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps)96%
- 1 (25 bps)2%
- 3 (75 bps)<1%
10 more
- 2 (50 bps)<1%
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
- 6 (150 bps)<1%
- 7 (175 bps)<1%
- 5 (125 bps)<1%
- 8 (200 bps)<1%
- 9 (225 bps)<1%
- 10 (250 bps)<1%
- 11 (275 bps)<1%
- 12+ (300+ bps)<1%
Fed Decision in December?
75%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase75%
- No change21%▲ 1
- 50+ bps increase3%
2 more
- 50+ bps decrease1%
- 25 bps decrease1%
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
75%2 (50 bps)
- 2 (50 bps)75%▲ 3
- 1 (25 bps)21%▼ 2
- 3 (75 bps)3%▼ 1
2 more
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
- 5+ (125+ bps)<1%
Fed funds rate after Dec 2026 meeting?
4.12%median
2.5%5.5%
Median 4.12%Middle half 4.03% – 4.2%
Number of rate cuts in 2026?
0.04median
-0.5020.5
Median 0.04Middle half -0.23 – 0.31
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions