Predictions › Politics › Trump administration
Not enough history yet.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
No recent headlines name this market's subject.
October 31 14% ▼ 5 November 30 55% ▼ 5 December 31 77% ▼ 4
SI / Super Intelligence 84% ▲ 18 Biden / Kamala / Obama 10+ times 82% ▼ 5 Russia / Ukraine 78% ▲ 7 19 more Drag Show 77% ▲ 14 Ass 71% ▲ 6 Transgender 5+ times 65% ▼ 13 America First / Gulf of America 65% ▼ 4 Animal 63% ▲ 2 Hormuz / Blockade 61% ▼ 1 Fertilizer / Rural 54% ▲ 8 Hell 15+ times 53% ▼ 1 Data Center / Electric / Electricity 47% ▲ 7 AI / Artificial Intelligence 39% ▼ 5 Bull / Bullshit 38% ▼ 4 Star 38% ▼ 4 Fentanyl / Deport / Deported 38% ▲ 6 Tax 33+ times 31% ▼ 16 Regulation / Regulatory 28% Gay / Palestine 26% ▲ 5 Maduro 19% ▼ 10 Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency 2% ▲ 1 -No Qualifying Event- 1% ▼ 3 Vladimir Putin 85% ▲ 2 Mohammed bin Salman 77% ▼ 3 Kim Jong Un 13% ▼ 18 11 more Aleksandr Lukashenko 11% King Mohammed VI 11% ▼ 2 Changpeng Zhao 11% Pope Leo XIV 5% ▲ 1 MrBeast 5% iShowSpeed 4% Lai Ching-te 4% Nick Fuentes 3% Yoon Suk Yeol 3% Nicolás Maduro 2% Jair Bolsonaro 2% ▼ 1
38.55% 39.25%
Median 38.58% Middle half 38.6% – 38.77%
Anna Kelly 14% ▲ 3 Scott Jennings 14% ▼ 1 Elizabeth Pipko 6% ▲ 1 57 more Alina Habba 3% Steven Cheung 3% ▲ 2 Danielle Alvarez 3% Margo Martin 3% Kari Lake 2% No new person 2% ▲ 1 Rachel Campos-Duffy 2% Roma Daravi 2% Laura Loomer 2% Tricia McLaughlin 2% Maria Bartiromo 2% ▼ 1 Erin Elmore Scavino 2% Karoline Leavitt 2% Katie Miller 1% ▼ 4 Jason Miller 1% Sage Steele 1% Tucker Carlson 1% Liz Huston 1% Natalie Harp 1% Spencer Pratt 1% Lara Trump 1% Jayme Franklin 1% Erika Kirk 1% Matthew Boyle 1% Taylor Budowich 1% Monica Crowley 1% Kush Desai 1% Ari Fleischer 1% Benny Johnson 1% Matt Walsh 1% Ben Shapiro 1% Jack Posobiec 1% Mike Cernovich 1% Dan Bongino 1% Kayleigh McEnany 1% Harrison Fields 1% Taylor Rogers 1% ▼ 1 Hogan Gidley 1% Katie Pavlich 1% ▼ 1 Lauren Bis 1% Pat Adams 1% Kaelan Dorr 1% Vanessa Broussard 1% Cara Castronuova 1% Mark Levin 1% Logan Paul 1% Jake Paul 1% Eric Daugherty 1% Ben Ferguson 1% Tulsi Gabbard 1% Beni Rae Harmony 1% Peter Doocy 1% Sean Spicer 1% Marco Rubio 1% Kat Timpf 1% Kaylee McGhee White 1% George Santos 1% Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 7 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Trading closes Dec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET
Traded $86.2K
Today $733
This week $86.2K
At stake $15K
In the news 50 headlines today, 351 this week
Followed here since Oct 19, 2026
The rules This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly endorses, or announces that he will vote for, JD Vance for the 2028 United States presidential election or the Republican primary for that election, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". If Donald Trump announces that he will vote for another candidate or endorses another candidate for the 2028 United States presidential election or the Republican primary for that election, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Trump's endorsement
The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket .
A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.
For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use .