Texas Senate winner? (2026)
66%James Talarico
- James Talarico66%▲ 1
- Ken Paxton35%▼ 1
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Republicans win the Senate pending oil above or below $80?
The odds
35%Oil ≥ $80; R Senate
- Oil ≥ $80; R Senate35%▲ 1
- Oil < $80; R Senate1%
How the odds have moved
Oil ≥ $80; R Senate: 35% on Oct 20, 35% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oil ≥ $80; R Senate | 35% | ▲ 1 | 33¢ | 37¢ | $2.70 | $12.3K |
| Oil < $80; R Senate | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $52.63 | $46.1K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Senate
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The Data Dive: Steve Kornacki on the state that changes the Senate majority math for RepublicansThe Senate map overall favors the GOP, so the party is on offense in just a handful of states critical to control. Michigan offers the rare Democratic-held seat that Republicans h ... -
Megachurch pastor threatens to end Republicans' nearly century-long Senate winning streak in KansasSen. Roger Marshall, R-Kan., knows he running for his political life, and his only way to win in Kansas against Adam Hamilton is by getting Trump's loyal voters. But experts say his relationship with Trump could be his biggest weakness… -
Republicans Could Still Keep the Senate. Here’s HowOct 26, 2026 at 05:00 AM EDT Certain preelection forecasts have Democrats riding a blue wave to majorities in both the House and the Senate, but there are a few ways for the GOP to keep its grasp on the upper chamber for the remainder of… -
Dems have controlled Michigan's U.S. Senate seats for over 30 years. Who was the last Republican elected?October 26, 2026 / 10:36 AM EDT / CBS Detroit Michigan's U.S. Senate race is one of the most-watched in the country, with Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers competing for the most votes. If El-Sayed wins, Democrats will… -
Inside a Senate aide’s quiet business dealsDelivered daily, Influence gives you a comprehensive rundown and analysis of all lobby hires and news on K Street. By DANIEL LIPPMAN and JACOB WENDLER 10/26/2026 06:00 PM EDT FIRST IN PI — Brent Robertson, chief of staff for Sen. Roger… -
Chinese-funded institutes on U.S. college campuses condemned in Senate reportA scathing Senate report released Wednesday says that without major changes, so-called Confucius Institutes paid for by the Chinese government and operating on dozens of American college campuses should shut down. Republicans have long… -
Dems make play to flip deep-red Mississippi Senate seatFlorida Democratic Senate candidate Angie Nixon calls out Trump’s ‘harmful rhetoric’ after right-wing activist Laura Loomer verbally attacks her. Republican Byron Donalds tells Laura he’ll be a Governor for the people who will not tolerate… -
Midterm Sprint: Bret Baier breaks down competitive Senate races'Special Report' executive editor Bret Baier hosts a countdown to the 2026 midterm elections, analyzing key matchups that could decide the balance of power. Midterm Sprint: Bret Baier breaks down competitive Senate races 'Special Report'… -
Kellyanne Conway declares Michigan Senate race the 'hottest' in the countryFox News contributor Kellyanne Conway analyzes the highly competitive Michigan Senate race between Republican Mike Rogers and Democrat Abdul El Sayed on 'The Story.' ... Kellyanne Conway declares Michigan Senate race the 'hottest' in the… -
Trump blasts Senate for not making daylight saving permanent, jokes clock changes makes him latePresident Trump blasted senators for not passing a bill that would make daylight saving time permanent – joking that the exercise of changing the clocks makes him late. The commander-in-chief told supporters in Corinth, Mississippi, on… -
Over 4 million votes cast as Texas Senate race tightensFox News correspondent Brooke Taylor has the latest on the highly anticipated Texas Senate race between Ken Paxton and James Talarico. Over 4 million votes cast as Texas Senate race tightens Fox News correspondent Brooke Taylor has the… -
John Thune's balancing act: Inside the GOP leader's push to save his Senate majorityOctober 27, 2026 / 5:00 AM EDT / CBS News Sioux City, Iowa — Less than 24 hours after President Trump held a raucous rally inside an airplane hangar in this western Iowa town, Senate Majority Leader John Thune stood alongside Rep. Ashley…
Related markets
All senate ›Texas Senate Election Winner
68%James Talarico (D)
- James Talarico (D)68%▲ 3
- Ken Paxton (R)32%▼ 4
2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
63%Democrats sweep
- Democrats sweep63%
- D-House, R-Senate28%
- Republicans sweep9%▼ 1
1 more
- R-House, D-Senate1%
Which party will win the U.S. Senate? (2026)
64%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party64%▲ 1
- Republican Party36%
Michigan Senate winner? (2026)
69%Abdul El-Sayed
- Abdul El-Sayed69%▲ 3
- Mike Rogers32%▼ 3
Maine Senate Election Winner
63%Troy Jackson (D)
- Troy Jackson (D)63%▲ 4
- Susan Collins (R)37%▼ 5
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions