US imports Russian diesel by...?

Polymarket Finance › Commodities Closes Nov 30 · $38.2K today · $584K traded · $79.7K at stake · prices read 9 min ago

The odds

Nov 17, 2026even chance by

October 314%▲ 2
November 3088%▲ 5
December 3192%▲ 7

How the odds have moved

October 31: 3% on Oct 20, 4% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
October 31	4%	▲ 2	4¢	5¢	$20.41	$355K
November 30	88%	▲ 5	87¢	88¢	$1.14	$168K
December 31	92%	▲ 7	91¢	92¢	$1.09	$60.5K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news

No recent headlines name this market's subject.

Related markets

All commodities ›

Finance › Commodities

What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in October 2026?

$105.56high with an even chance

Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $105.56.

Reaches $100>99%
Reaches $10555%

Falls to $9517%
Falls to $905%

Already reached: ↑ $90, ↑ $95, ↓ $90, ↓ $90, ↓ $90, ↑ $90

Finance › Commodities

Oil Price (WTI) on Oct 27, 2026?

$102.26median

$90.99$106.49

Median $102.26Middle half $101.17 – $103.42

Finance › Commodities

US gas prices this week (Nov 2, 2026)

$4.22median

$4.08$4.52

Median $4.22Middle half $4.19 – $4.25

Finance › Commodities

Gas prices in the US in Oct 2026?

$4.25median

$2.40$5.10

Median $4.25Middle half $4.21 – $4.28

Finance › Commodities

Alaska diesel prices in Oct 2026

$6.44median

$5.90$7.40

Median $6.44Middle half $6.15 – $6.49

Finance › Commodities

What will Silver (XAGUSD) hit in October 2026?

$59.03high with an even chance

Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $59.03 and as low as $51.53.

Reaches $58>99%
Reaches $603%

Falls to $56>99%
Falls to $54>99%

Already reached: ↓ $62, ↓ $60, ↓ $58, ↓ $56, ↓ $60, ↑ $62

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesNov 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$584K

Today$38.2K

This week$158K

At stake$79.7K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

On October 9, 2026, Donald Trump announced an agreement with Vladimir Putin to import Russian diesel fuel, and the United States Treasury issued General License 135 authorizing the importation of Russian-origin diesel fuel into the United States through April 7, 2027 (see: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/117412435306815143 & https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/20261009_33). This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russian diesel fuel is imported to the United States between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Russian diesel fuel refers to diesel fuel of Russian production origin. Imported to the United States re

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions