Next Premier of New South Wales

Polymarket Elections › Around the world Closes Mar 27, 2027 · $945 today · $10.6K traded · $1.5K at stake · prices read 7 min ago

The odds

64%Chris Minns

Chris Minns64%▲ 8
Rose Jackson15%▲ 1
Kellie Sloane13%
Ryan Park2%▼ 2
Gurmesh Singh2%▼ 1
Mark Speakman2%▼ 12
Prue Car1%
Daniel Mookhey1%▼ 1
Mike Newman1%
Alister Henskens<1%
Penny Sharpe<1%

How the odds have moved

Chris Minns: 54% on Oct 20, 64% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

Oct 27, 2 PM ETChris Minns: 57% → 64%

No headline about it in the hours around this move.
Oct 23, 9 PM ETChris Minns: 50% → 59%

No headline about it in the hours around this move.

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
Chris Minns	64%	▲ 8	64¢	77¢	$1.30	$3.6K
Rose Jackson	15%	▲ 1	10¢	24¢	$4.13	$1.1K
Kellie Sloane	13%		10¢	19¢	$5.26	$2.3K
Ryan Park	2%	▼ 2	1¢	5¢	$20.83	$415
Gurmesh Singh	2%	▼ 1	0¢	5¢	$20.41	$461
Mark Speakman	2%	▼ 12	2¢	2¢	$58.82	$1.3K
Prue Car	1%		0¢	3¢	$34.48	$290
Daniel Mookhey	1%	▼ 1	0¢	2¢	$47.62	$345
Mike Newman	1%		0¢	1¢	$83.33	$312
Alister Henskens	<1%		0¢	1¢		$283
Penny Sharpe	<1%		0¢	0¢		$283

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Premier of New South Wales, Chris Minns, Rose Jackson

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In allowing coal expansion in the Hunter, Chris Minns is pouring fuel on the climate fire. His decision will come back to hurt us allthe Guardian · 5 days agoThe high court found NSW is responsible for emissions from burning exported coal. What message does it send when the government can step in and bypass the law? As someone who lost their home in the black summer bushfires, I was buoyed by…
NSW government backtracks on gender-neutral breastfeeding policy after Kellie Sloane criticismWomen's Agenda · 5 days agoby Women's Agenda | 3 hours ago NSW Premier Chris Minns has reversed gender-neutral language changes made to NSW parliament’s employee breastfeeding policy, after Opposition Leader Kellie Sloane said the government was “robbing females” of…
MACH Energy is misleading the Government and Chris Minns has fallen for itThe National Tribune · 7 days agoThe announcement by Premier Chris Minns, that special laws would be written for MACH Energy, has caused former Supreme Court Judge Anthony Whealy to call for an independent investigation into the Government decision over public integrity…
NSW breastfeeding kerfuffleBinary · 5 days agoNSW politicians have read the writing on the wall, and surprise, surprise they have taken heed. Opposition Leader Kellie Sloane took to social media in an embarrassment to the Minns government revealing a new document had replaced words…
Public backlash sparks backflip on Sydney train timetablesThe Sydney Morning Herald · 4 days agoUpdated October 24, 2026 — 3:46pm,first published 11:24am An unpopular train timetable shake-up that would have affected hundreds of thousands of Sydney train commuters has been abandoned following public backlash. NSW Premier Chris Minns…
A week of wins for firearm owners in gun-law battleSporting Shooter · 5 days agoComment & Analysis, Gun Law The past week has been extraordinary for gun owners, topped by two particular breakthroughs in NSW: Opposition leader Kellie Sloane said publicly we should not hand in our firearms in the buyback, and parliament…
Minns and Sloane See Sense on Mothers, Must Do Same for NSW KidsMirage News · 6 days agoNSW Premier Chris Minns' decision to restore the words "women" and "mothers" to Parliament's breastfeeding policy after Opposition Leader Kellie Sloane called out the gender-neutral nonsense is welcome, Family First Legislative Council…
Minns and Sloane finally see common sense on mothers — now do the same for kids in NSW schoolsThe National Tribune · 6 days agoNSW Premier Chris Minns’ decision to restore the words “women” and “mothers” to Parliament’s breastfeeding policy after Opposition Leader Kellie Sloane called out the gender-neutral nonsense is welcome, Family First Legislative Council…
Emails to The Daily Telegraph reveal Labor official urging Minns to get funding@mediaweekau · 6 days agoDavid Dobson told The DT he “forwarded an email about a publicly advertised grant.” The Daily Telegraph has reported that emails mistakenly sent to their offices by the Labor Party, ALP Assistant General Secretary David Dobson “repeatedly…
Dee Bocking Will Fight For GosfordMirage News · 5 days agoAged care specialist and disability support worker, small business owner and former Gosford City Councillor, Dee Bocking is the Liberal candidate for Gosford. Having spent years supporting local residents, Dee brings a wealth of practical…
Minns’ $6.8 billion election promise for key passenger train lineThe Sydney Morning Herald · 44 h agoOctober 26, 2026 — 9:38am About $6.8 billion will be funnelled into removing bottlenecks on the passenger train line from Sydney to the South Coast and electrifying it all the way to Bomaderry as part of a re-election pledge by the Minns…
Lyle Shelton welcomes NSW Liberal leader’s awakening to LGBTQIA+ ideologycairnsnews.org · 5 days agoBy LYLE SHELTON,of FAMILY FIRST NSW You marched as a “Sloane Ranger” in the Mardi Gras, Kellie. What did you expect? NSW Liberal Leader Kellie Sloane has discovered that LGBTQIA+ political ideology has consequences. This week she labelled…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Settles onnsw.gov.au

Trading closesMar 27, 2027 11:59 PM ET

Traded$10.6K

Today$945

This week$4.4K

At stake$1.5K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

The 2027 New South Wales state election is currently scheduled to be held on 27 March 2027 to elect members of the 59th Parliament of New South Wales. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of New South Wales as a result of the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn-in as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Premier is appointed by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions