Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of December?

Polymarket Tech › AI Closes Dec 31 · $793 today · $15.2K traded · $1.2K at stake · prices read 34 min ago

The odds

60%OpenAI

OpenAI60%▲ 1
Anthropic26%▲ 1
Alibaba6%
Google6%▲ 1
DeepSeek5%▲ 1
Meta5%
Moonshot5%
Xiaomi4%
SpaceXAI4%
MiniMax4%
ByteDance3%
Z.ai2%

4 more

Tencent2%
Poolside1%
Thinky1%
Mistral1%

How the odds have moved

Not enough history yet.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
OpenAI	60%	▲ 1	58¢	62¢	$1.61	$5.2K
Anthropic	26%	▲ 1	25¢	26¢	$3.85	$7.4K
Alibaba	6%		1¢	11¢	$9.01	$177
Google	6%	▲ 1	2¢	11¢	$9.35	$308
DeepSeek	5%	▲ 1	0¢	11¢	$9.52	$169
Meta	5%		1¢	9¢	$10.87	$157
Moonshot	5%		1¢	9¢	$10.64	$219
Xiaomi	4%		0¢	8¢	$12.35	$157
SpaceXAI	4%		1¢	7¢	$14.49	$285
MiniMax	4%		0¢	7¢	$14.93	$157
ByteDance	3%		0¢	7¢	$15.38	$157
Z.ai	2%		1¢	4¢	$27.78	$177
Tencent	2%		1¢	3¢	$29.41	$157
Poolside	1%		0¢	2¢	$52.63	$179
Thinky	1%		0¢	1¢		$171
Mistral	1%		0¢	1¢		$157

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab

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Tech › AI

Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of October?

83%OpenAI

OpenAI83%▼ 1
Meta6%▲ 4
Anthropic5%

13 more

Z.ai2%▲ 1
Google1%
Alibaba1%
SpaceXAI1%
Moonshot<1%
Xiaomi<1%
ByteDance<1%
Poolside<1%
DeepSeek<1%
Tencent<1%
MiniMax<1%
Thinky<1%
Mistral<1%

Tech › AI

Anthropic announces bankruptcy by...?

24%December 31, 2029

December 31, 202710%
December 31, 202817%▼ 2
December 31, 202924%

Tech › AI

DeepSeek market share this week (DeepSeek market share - Oct 19, 2026)

26.86%median

21.6%29%

Median 26.86%

Tech › AI

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?

Oct 26, 2026even chance by

October 2122%▼ 18
October 2237%▼ 23
October 2441%▼ 38

2 more

October 3176%▼ 9
December 3198%

Tech › AI

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

75%Google

Google75%▲ 4
Anthropic24%▼ 6
OpenAI1%

18 more

Meta<1%
Alibaba<1%
Moonshot<1%
Baidu<1%
Z.ai<1%
Xiaomi<1%
SpaceXAI<1%
DeepSeek<1%
Amazon<1%
ByteDance<1%
Nvidia<1%
Thinky<1%
MiniMax<1%
Mistral<1%
Meituan<1%
Tencent<1%
StepFun<1%
Microsoft<1%

Tech › AI

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

$2.1Thigh with an even chance

Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $2.1T.

Reaches $1.5T91%
Reaches $1.75T69%

Falls to $800B4%
Falls to $700B4%

Already reached: ↑$1.25T, ↑$1.1T, ↑$1.0T

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesDec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$15.2K

Today$793

This week$15.2K

At stake$1.2K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ran

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Prices it is about

Alibaba Group Holding LimitedBABA · about the company108.57−0.49%
Alphabet Inc.GOOGL · about the company344.18+1.05%
Meta Platforms, Inc.META · about the company705.44−0.55%

From 4Search Finance. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.