Anthropic announces bankruptcy by...?
24%December 31, 2029
- December 31, 202710%
- December 31, 202817%▼ 2
- December 31, 202924%
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Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of November?
The odds
73%Anthropic
- Anthropic73%▼ 5
- OpenAI6%▲ 1
- Meituan6%
- Google5%▲ 1
- Meta1%
- MiniMax1%
- SpaceXAI1%
- Tencent1%
- StepFun1%
- Moonshot1%
- Xiaomi1%
- Thinky1%
9 more
- Mistral1%
- Alibaba1%
- Baidu1%
- Z.ai1%
- DeepSeek1%
- Amazon1%
- ByteDance1%
- Nvidia1%
- Microsoft<1%
How the odds have moved
Not enough history yet.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | 73% | ▼ 5 | 73¢ | 74¢ | $1.35 | $4.2K |
| OpenAI | 6% | ▲ 1 | 1¢ | 11¢ | $9.17 | $276 |
| Meituan | 6% | 0¢ | 12¢ | $8.40 | $326 | |
| 5% | ▲ 1 | 1¢ | 10¢ | $10.10 | $2.1K | |
| Meta | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $83.33 | $277 | |
| MiniMax | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $83.33 | $256 | |
| SpaceXAI | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $100.00 | $236 | |
| Tencent | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $100.00 | $236 | |
| StepFun | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $100.00 | $236 | |
| Moonshot | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $100.00 | $236 | |
| Xiaomi | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $100.00 | $242 | |
| Thinky | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $100.00 | $236 | |
| Mistral | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $100.00 | $236 | |
| Alibaba | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | $226 | ||
| Baidu | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | $209 | ||
| Z.ai | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | $209 | ||
| DeepSeek | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $236 | ||
| Amazon | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $236 | ||
| ByteDance | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | $211 | ||
| Nvidia | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | $211 | ||
| Microsoft | <1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $280 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: AI model, artificial intelligence, LiveBench
Search ›No recent headlines name this market's subject.
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21.6%29%
Median 26.6%Middle half 25.54% – 27.52%
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?
Oct 26, 2026even chance by
- October 2122%▼ 18
- October 2236%▼ 23
- October 2441%▼ 38
2 more
- October 3178%▼ 7
- December 3198%
Which company has the best AI model end of October?
75%Google
- Google75%▲ 4
- Anthropic24%▼ 6
- OpenAI1%
18 more
- Meta<1%
- Alibaba<1%
- Moonshot<1%
- Baidu<1%
- Z.ai<1%
- Xiaomi<1%
- SpaceXAI<1%
- DeepSeek<1%
- Amazon<1%
- ByteDance<1%
- Nvidia<1%
- Thinky<1%
- MiniMax<1%
- Mistral<1%
- Meituan<1%
- Tencent<1%
- StepFun<1%
- Microsoft<1%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
$2.1Thigh with an even chance
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $2.1T.
- Reaches $1.5T91%
- Reaches $1.75T69%
- Falls to $800B4%
- Falls to $700B4%
Already reached: ↑$1.25T, ↑$1.1T, ↑$1.0T
Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...?
27%December 31, 2028
- December 31, 20262%▲ 1
- June 30, 202710%
- December 31, 202714%▲ 1
1 more
- December 31, 202827%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.