Texas Senate winner? (2026)
65%James Talarico
- James Talarico65%
- Ken Paxton35%▼ 1
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Next US Senate Minority Leader?
The odds
51%John Thune
- John Thune51%
- Chuck Schumer37%▼ 1
- John Barrasso4%▲ 1
- Tom Cotton4%▲ 4
- Rick Scott4%
- Mark Kelly3%
- Patty Murray1%
- Brian Schatz<1%
- Cory Booker<1%
How the odds have moved
John Thune: 46% on Oct 20, 51% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Thune | 51% | 51¢ | 54¢ | $1.85 | $4.7K | |
| Chuck Schumer | 37% | ▼ 1 | 37¢ | 41¢ | $2.44 | $5.9K |
| John Barrasso | 4% | ▲ 1 | 1¢ | 9¢ | $11.49 | $396 |
| Tom Cotton | 4% | ▲ 4 | 1¢ | 8¢ | $12.20 | $319 |
| Rick Scott | 4% | 1¢ | 7¢ | $13.70 | $355 | |
| Mark Kelly | 3% | 2¢ | 5¢ | $21.28 | $472 | |
| Patty Murray | 1% | 0¢ | 2¢ | $52.63 | $489 | |
| Brian Schatz | <1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $350 | ||
| Cory Booker | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | $628 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Senate Minority Leader, John Thune, Chuck Schumer
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John Barrasso to campaign with Ken Paxton - Live Updates - POLITICOHe’s the most senior Senate Republican to hit the trail with the embattled Texas candidate. Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso will campaign with Ken Paxton next week in Texas as Republicans work overtime to try to hold onto the endangered… -
Joe Manchin rips Chuck Schumer for working against ‘dear friend’ Susan Collins: ‘he’s crazy’Former Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin took a swipe at Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer Wednesday for working to oust his “dear friend” Sen. Susan Collins — calling him “crazy” for targeting the Maine Republican. Manchin, who left the… -
Chuck Schumer Goes FULL 'Quiet Part Out Loud' With Post Blasting Trump's Election Integrity EffortsThis year it's been discovered that not only do non-citizens manage to be registered to vote, but many of them actually cast ballots, which cancel out the votes of citizens. Yes indeed, the thing that we've been assured never happens… -
John Barrasso to Campaign with Ken Paxton"Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso will campaign with Ken Paxton next week in Texas as Republicans work overtime to try to hold onto the endangered seat," Politico reports. Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 192 “Senate Majority Whip John… -
Chuck Schumer PAC spends $1.2 million for Scott Colom as pundits say Hyde-Smith lead is waningBy Michael Goldberg | Originally published by Mississippi Today A top Democratic super PAC focused on U.S. Senate races announced Tuesday that it will spend $1.2 million on an ad campaign in Mississippi for Scott Colom. The ad, paid for by… -
Republican group places seven-figure ad buy in MississippiThe top Senate Republican super PAC is spending more than $1 million in Mississippi’s Senate race to defend GOP Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith and stave off an upset bid from Democratic candidate Scott Colom, according to details shared with… -
Indian-American Ro Khanna says he is ‘not a Chuck Schumer Democrat’Home » International » Indian-American Ro Khanna says he is ‘not a Chuck Schumer Democrat’ Posted By: Gopi October 21, 2026 United Nations, Oct 22 (SocialNews.XYZ) Indian-American Congressman Ro Khanna has declared himself “a New Deal… -
Funeral held for Charles Rangel, longtime N.Y. congressman and son of HarlemUpdated on: June 13, 2025 / 6:04 PM EDT / CBS New York Former Rep. Charles Rangel was laid to rest Friday with a funeral at St. Patrick's Cathedral in Manhattan. The longtime New York congressman died last month at the age of 94. A… -
Senate Republicans Training Their Own Election Observers to Match Democrats’ EffortSenate Republicans are training their own election observers to send to battleground states ahead of the Nov. 3 midterms, a spokesperson for Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) told The Epoch Times, the first direct confirmation… -
Ro Khanna Breaks With Chuck Schumer, Demands a New Direction for DemocratsKhanna shared his message on X on Wednesday, along with a 57-second video. He said the Democratic Party needed more leaders like Nixon and fewer leaders like Schumer to move forward. Khanna argued that the party should not be controlled by… -
Recommended StoriesWashington Examiner is a news organization based in Washington, D.C., covering Congress, the White House, national security, the courts and elections, with breaking news, investigative reporting and conservative analysis. It publishes a… -
Roger Marshall and Adam Hamilton face off in fiery final Kansas Senate debateRepublican Sen. Roger Marshall and Democrat Adam Hamilton went head to head in a contentious debate Wednesday night as polls show a toss-up in ruby-red Kansas with less than two weeks until Election Day. Marshall and Hamilton traded…
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All senate ›Texas Senate Election Winner
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Which party will win the U.S. Senate? (2026)
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South Carolina Senate winner? (2026)
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions