#3 AI Lab end of November? (Style Control On)

Polymarket Tech › AI Closes Nov 30 · $599 today · $38.8K traded · $3K at stake · prices read 28 min ago

The odds

40%Meta

Meta40%▲ 11
Anthropic19%▼ 1
OpenAI17%▼ 1
Google15%
Moonshot4%▼ 1
Meituan3%
Z.ai2%
Alibaba2%▼ 1
Tencent1%
Xiaomi1%
SpaceXAI<1%
DeepSeek<1%

9 more

Baidu<1%
Mistral<1%
Amazon<1%
ByteDance<1%
MiniMax<1%
Thinky<1%
Microsoft<1%
Nvidia<1%
StepFun<1%

How the odds have moved

Not enough history yet.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
Meta	40%	▲ 11	40¢	44¢	$2.27	$8.6K
Anthropic	19%	▼ 1	19¢	22¢	$4.55	$3.6K
OpenAI	17%	▼ 1	17¢	21¢	$4.76	$6.3K
Google	15%		15¢	19¢	$5.32	$7.6K
Moonshot	4%	▼ 1	1¢	8¢	$12.35	$915
Meituan	3%		0¢	6¢	$16.13	$1.2K
Z.ai	2%		1¢	4¢	$26.32	$647
Alibaba	2%	▼ 1	1¢	3¢	$33.33	$1.5K
Tencent	1%		0¢	3¢	$34.48	$1.4K
Xiaomi	1%		0¢	2¢	$66.67	$796
SpaceXAI	<1%		0¢	1¢	$100.00	$726
DeepSeek	<1%		0¢	1¢	$100.00	$714
Baidu	<1%		0¢	1¢		$520
Mistral	<1%		0¢	1¢		$734
Amazon	<1%			1¢	$100.00	$683
ByteDance	<1%		0¢	1¢		$520
MiniMax	<1%		0¢	0¢		$464
Thinky	<1%		0¢	0¢		$705
Microsoft	<1%			0¢		$342
Nvidia	<1%			0¢		$425
StepFun	<1%			0¢		$494

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: AI Lab

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No recent headlines name this market's subject.

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Tech › AI

#3 AI Lab end of October? (Style Control On)

65%Meta

Meta65%▲ 10
Anthropic23%▲ 2
Alibaba3%

18 more

Google2%
Z.ai1%
Moonshot1%
OpenAI1%
SpaceXAI1%
Baidu1%
Xiaomi1%
DeepSeek1%
Tencent<1%
MiniMax<1%
Nvidia<1%
Microsoft<1%
Meituan<1%
Mistral<1%
ByteDance<1%
Thinky<1%
Amazon<1%
StepFun<1%

Tech › AI

#3 AI Lab end of December? (Style Control On)

35%Meta

Meta35%▲ 12
Anthropic23%▲ 1
Google17%▲ 1

18 more

Meituan10%▼ 9
OpenAI7%▼ 3
StepFun6%
Nvidia6%▼ 1
Moonshot6%
Tencent5%▼ 1
DeepSeek4%
ByteDance4%
Mistral4%
Alibaba4%
Z.ai4%
Microsoft3%
Xiaomi3%
Baidu3%
Thinky2%
SpaceXAI1%
MiniMax1%
Amazon1%

Tech › AI

Anthropic announces bankruptcy by...?

24%December 31, 2029

December 31, 202710%
December 31, 202817%▼ 2
December 31, 202924%

Tech › AI

DeepSeek market share this week (DeepSeek market share - Oct 19, 2026)

26.87%median

21.6%29%

Median 26.87%

Tech › AI

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?

Oct 26, 2026even chance by

October 2123%▼ 18
October 2238%▼ 22
October 2441%▼ 38

2 more

October 3175%▼ 11
December 3198%

Tech › AI

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

74%Google

Google74%▲ 3
Anthropic24%▼ 6
OpenAI1%

18 more

Meta<1%
Alibaba<1%
Moonshot<1%
Baidu<1%
Z.ai<1%
Xiaomi<1%
SpaceXAI<1%
DeepSeek<1%
Amazon<1%
ByteDance<1%
Nvidia<1%
Thinky<1%
MiniMax<1%
Mistral<1%
Meituan<1%
Tencent<1%
StepFun<1%
Microsoft<1%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesNov 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$38.8K

Today$599

This week$38.8K

At stake$3K

In the news5 headlines today, 51 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the ma

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Prices it is about

Amazon.com, Inc.AMZN · about the company262.45+4.98%
Alibaba Group Holding LimitedBABA · about the company108.57−0.49%
Baidu, Inc.BIDU · about the company79.78−0.45%
GOOGLGOOGL · about the company
Meta Platforms, Inc.META · about the company705.44−0.55%
Microsoft CorporationMSFT · about the company533.52+0.84%
NVIDIA CorporationNVDA · about the company217.09+1.38%

From 4Search Finance. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.