Nevada Senate winner? (2028)

Kalshi Elections › Senate Closes Nov 7, 2029 · $1.5K traded · $688 at stake · prices read 47 min ago

The odds

59%Democratic party

Democratic party59%
Republican party40%

How the odds have moved

Democratic party: 60% on Oct 20, 59% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Democratic party	59%		57¢	61¢	$1.64	2.0K
Republican party	40%		38¢	41¢	$2.44	852

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Nevada Senate

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Republican Rafael Arroyo-Montalvo running for District 12 seat in Nevada SenateAOL.com · 7 days agoLAS VEGAS (KLAS) — As a small businessman, Rafael Arroyo-Montalvo had to learn how to use the law to stay in business. Now, the Republican is running to be a lawmaker in Nevada Senate District 12. He will be up against incumbent Democrat…
2026 General Election: Nevada Senate District 17Nevada Appeal · 11 days agoOccupation: Retired IT Legislative Analyst from the LCB (Legislative Counsel Bureau) Leadership positions in RPEN (Representing Public Employees of Nevada), HSDV (Historical Society of Dayton Valley), Friends of the Dayton Valley Library…
Got a Minute? Nicole Cannizzaro talks public safety, voting rights and affordability in attorney general race@fox5vegas · 10 days agoLAS VEGAS (FOX5) — Nevada Senate Majority Leader Nicole Cannizzaro sat down with FOX5 to discuss her campaign for Nevada attorney general, addressing public safety, voting rights, federal overreach, artificial intelligence and…
Nevada families deserve a congressman who stands with them | OpinionTacoma News Tribune · 11 days agoAs a physician who has spent my career caring for families in rural Nevada, and as a mother and grandmother, I know what matters most to the people of this state: safe communities, strong schools, and leaders who put Nevada families first…
Texas - Page 23 of 23 - Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee@dlcc · 12 days agoTexas is one of the most important power-building opportunities in the country — and one of the clearest examples of why state legislative elections matter. The DLCC knows exactly where the most competitive state legislative districts in…
Michigan Sen. Elissa Slotkin stumps for Washoe Dems, touts polling safety legislation barring feds from sites@KOLO8 · 16 days agoRENO, Nev. (KOLO) - Michigan Sen. Elissa Slotkin campaigned for Washoe County Democrats Wednesday night, bringing a message of support for Democrats in northern Nevada and promoting a bill she is authoring to protect voters at polling…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onUnited States Congress

Trading closesNov 7, 2029 10:00 AM ET

Traded$1.5K (2,857 contracts)

This week$1.5K

At stake$688

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of Nevada for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

The race

The candidates, the incumbent, every market on this race and its coverage: the race on 4Search Politics ›

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.