Hawaii Senate winner? (2028)

Kalshi Elections › Senate Closes Nov 7, 2029 · $2.9K traded · $1.3K at stake · prices read 3 h ago

The odds

88%Democratic party

Democratic party88%
Republican party12%

How the odds have moved

Democratic party: 88% on Oct 20, 88% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Democratic party	88%		86¢	90¢	$1.11	2.8K
Republican party	12%		10¢	14¢	$7.14	3.9K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Hawaii Senate

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Hawaii Senate plans hearing on kauhale project after critical auditThe Garden Island · 10 days agoPublished 12:04 am Thursday, October 15, 2026 By Dan Nakaso, Star-Advertiser STAR-ADVERTISER / MAY 27 Kimo Carvalho, chief executive officer of HomeAid Hawaii, said he looks forward to sharing with lawmakers what kauhale has delivered and…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onUnited States Congress

Trading closesNov 7, 2029 10:00 AM ET

Traded$2.9K (6,714 contracts)

This week$2.9K

At stake$1.3K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of Hawaii for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

The race

The candidates, the incumbent, every market on this race and its coverage: the race on 4Search Politics ›

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.