Brazil Presidential Election
66%Flávio Bolsonaro
- Flávio Bolsonaro66%▼ 17
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva34%▲ 17
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Welsh Local Elections winner? (2027)
The odds
44%Plaid Cymru
- Plaid Cymru44%▲ 1
- Labour32%▲ 1
- Reform UK21%▲ 1
How the odds have moved
Plaid Cymru: 44% on Oct 19, 44% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plaid Cymru | 44% | ▲ 1 | 40¢ | 48¢ | $2.08 | |
| Labour | 32% | ▲ 1 | 28¢ | 36¢ | $2.78 | |
| Reform UK | 21% | ▲ 1 | 17¢ | 25¢ | $4.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Welsh Local, Plaid Cymru, Reform UK
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Plaid Cymru leads Reform by three points in Senedd pollPlaid Cymru holds a three-point lead over Reform UK in voting intentions for a Senedd election, according to a Beaufort Research poll for Nation.Cymru. The results showed neither a big boost for Labour nor a downturn for Reform. As always… -
Plaid Cymru gains Labour seat in council by-electionPlaid Cymru has gained a council seat from Labour after Nicholas Davies won a by-election prompted by the death of a longstanding councillor. Mr Davies was elected to Carmarthenshire County Council’s Saron ward on Thursday, October 22… -
Reform UK Wales slated for 'shameful' Aberfan videoThere has been an outpouring of anger after Reform UK Wales posted an Aberfan ‘tribute’ video described as ‘opportunistic’ and ‘shameful’. The clip opens with Jenner mentioning Aberfan but as the video progresses she begins to promote… -
Labour must honour its manifesto and replace House of Lords – Plaid Cymru peerLabour must follow through on its manifesto pledge and scrap the House of Lords, a Plaid Cymru peer said as she presented her private member’s Bill to the upper chamber. Baroness Smith of Llanfaes called for the Government to “honour its… -
Reform UK's £40billion plan of 'emergency cuts' to save 'broke Britain'Mr Jenrick is calling on the Chancellor to use £18billion of savings to hike the tax-free personal allowance to £15,000. He argues this would “leave the average household £1,000 better off”. He said: “We can’t go on like this. Britain is… -
Labour surge to their largest poll lead since the general election - with Tories ahead of Reform UK as Kemi Badenoch's popularity growsLabour has surged to its largest poll lead since the 2024 general election as the party continues to enjoy a 'bounce' under Andy Burnham's leadership. The latest Ipsos survey puts Labour on 32 per cent support, which is up five percentage… -
Reform UK's Suella Braverman claims massive taxpayer-funded water bill at home equal to 18 baths a dayReform MP Suella Braverman ran up a huge taxpayer-funded water bill at her family home – equivalent to 18 bathfuls a day. The former Home Secretary’s family got through 1,504 litres of water daily at her £1.2million four-bedroom pad in a… - Reform UK’s support collapses in major boost for Burnham, new poll showsThe latest Ipsos poll would give Andy Burnham a majority for Labour in a general election Support for Nigel Farage’s Reform UK has collapsed, giving Kemi Badenoch’s Tories their biggest lead over them since the general election in 2024 and…
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Reform UK fined for failing to declare it was publisher of campaigns materialParty given additional penalty by Electoral Commission for not paying original fine on time Reform UK has been fined more than £2,000 for failing to declare it was the publisher of campaign material seen by voters – including an additional… -
Reform UK Donor’s Former Business Links to Iranian Foundation Revealed in French Court DocumentsA French arbitration judgment has revealed that a British businessman who has become a financial supporter of Nigel Farage previously invested in an Iranian telecommunications venture partly owned by a religious foundation subsequently… -
Reform UK donor had ties to Iran supreme leader-linked foundation - GuardianA billionaire donor to Britain’s Reform UK party was previously involved in a business venture with Astan Quds Razavi, a powerful Iranian religious foundation under the authority of the country’s supreme leader, the Guardian reported… -
Plaid Cymru Minister announces Wales-specific Covid reviewThe Welsh Government has confirmed that an independent Wales-specific review of the previous Labour administration’s handling of the Covid-19 pandemic will be held. A decision notice issued by the government on October 21 said: “The…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions