Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
28.68%median
14%34%
Median 28.68%Middle half 26.33% – 31.08%
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Idaho Senate election: Natalie Fleming vote percent
The odds
2.81%median
0%8%
Median 2.81%Middle half 1.39% – 5.63%
How the odds have moved
Median: 2.77% on Oct 20, 2.81% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 1% | 83% | ▲ 2 | 79¢ | 87¢ | $1.15 | 917 |
| At least 2% | 63% | ▲ 4 | 58¢ | 67¢ | $1.49 | 1.5K |
| At least 3% | 47% | ▲ 5 | 42¢ | 52¢ | $1.92 | 210 |
| At least 4% | 38% | ▲ 7 | 33¢ | 43¢ | $2.33 | 451 |
| At least 5% | 33% | ▲ 9 | 29¢ | 36¢ | $2.78 | 1.0K |
| At least 6% | 21% | ▲ 3 | 19¢ | 22¢ | $4.55 | 611 |
| At least 7% | 15% | ▲ 2 | 14¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 | 1.2K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Idaho Senate, Natalie Fleming
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What’s up with the Idaho Senate race?IDAHO - It’s a trend that’s taken on new life the election cycle, independent candidates running against establishment backed big names. Orion Donovan Smith, who's from Washington and writes for the The Spokesman-Review via the Report for… -
Idaho senate candidates lay out prioritiesOct. 22—Idaho Sen. Jim Risch is seeking a fourth six-year term as issues surrounding affordability and persistent international conflict have risen to the fore alongside candidates looking to upend the state's decades-long streak of… -
Democrat Ron Taylor seeks another term in Idaho Senate District 26People attended the District 26 Democrats: Affordability Town Hall event Tuesday to hear from three candidates about their campaigns and solutions in Jerome. Candidate Kevin Marsh, running for Idaho House Seat A, left, listens during an… -
Senate candidates lay out priorities with affordability a shared concernIdaho’s three-term Republican U.S. Senator Jim Risch, center, is facing two Independent candidates for this year’s race in Todd Achilles, left, and Natalie Fleming, right. Also running is Libertarian candidate Matt Loesby (not pictured)… -
Valley County Election Preview: Brian Beckley vs. Jared Dawson for Idaho LegislatureTwo candidates are competing in the Nov. 3 General Election for one of two seats representing Valley County in the Idaho House of Representatives. Brian Beckley, a Republican who defeated incumbent Rep. Faye Thompson, R-McCall, in the May… -
Candidate forum set for todaySANDPOINT — If you're looking to get to know local and state candidates, Tuesday's candidate forum is just the spot to do just that. Bonner County media and the Selkirk Association of Realtors are teaming up to help area voters do just… -
Idaho Senate candidates take the stageBryan Hyde, R-Jerome, answers a question during Pizza & Politics on Wednesday. Seated to the right are Shaila Tate, I-Carey, center, and Ron Taylor, D-Hailey. Candidates for Idaho’s District 26 Senate seat gathered in the Mountain Humane… -
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Letters for Sunday, Oct. 18While working side-by-side as volunteers, I learned Karen and I share much in common. Over our lifetimes, we either experienced or saw various inequities and understood everyone deserves dignity, respect and a safe and healthy life… -
This Married Lesbian Couple Is Running to Unseat Idaho’s Top Conservative LawmakersA married lesbian couple is running for the Idaho state legislature as a team, one for the state’s House and one for its Senate. The two moms are running as Democrats in November’s election. Amanda Easley is running against Idaho House… -
Jim Risch calls for Iran war to end as rising costs take center stage in Idaho Senate raceU.S. Sen. Jim Risch, R-Idaho, stands on the steps of the Idaho State Capitol Building on May 30. U.S. Sen. Jim Risch speaks at a lying in state service for former Idaho Gov. Dirk Kempthorne at the Idaho State Capitol on May 15, 2026… -
Conflict in Iran looms large as Risch faces Achilles in race for U.S. Senate‘There’s no path to win’ Independent candidate Todd Achilles is challenging Risch in the race for U.S. Senate. The candidates also responded to questions about the top concerns facing Idahoans today.“Two things – Congress isn't working… -
Regional candidates’ fundraising varies widelyThe Idaho House of Representatives meets for a special session at the Statehouse in Boise in 2022. Funding raised and spent by candidates vying to represent Blaine County in the Legislature has varied widely. Candidates for elected office…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions