Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
28.65%median
14%34%
Median 28.65%Middle half 26.29% – 31.08%
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Alaska Senate election: Dan S. Sullivan vote percent (1st Round)
The odds
45.68%median
34%56%
Median 45.68%Middle half 44.1% – 47.38%
How the odds have moved
Median: 43.28% on Oct 19, 45.68% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 36% | 97% | 95¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | ||
| At least 38% | 97% | 95¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | ||
| At least 40% | 97% | ▲ 1 | 95¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | |
| At least 42% | 95% | ▲ 3 | 90¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 1.3K |
| At least 44% | 77% | ▲ 6 | 72¢ | 81¢ | $1.23 | 25.00 |
| At least 46% | 45% | ▲ 6 | 40¢ | 50¢ | $2.00 | |
| At least 48% | 16% | ▲ 2 | 11¢ | 21¢ | $4.76 | |
| At least 50% | 5% | ▲ 1 | 2¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | |
| At least 52% | 3% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | ||
| At least 54% | 3% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Dan S. Sullivan, Alaska Senate, Incumbent
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Democrats ask judge to dismiss Trump administration’s challenge to Alaska Senate raceAttorneys for Alaska’s Democratic Senate candidate Mary Peltola and Senate Democrats filed a motion Friday urging a federal judge to drop the Trump administration’s lawsuit that seeks to block the results of the upcoming election if… -
DoJ sues to block certification of Alaska Senate results if Republican incumbent losesTrump justice department claims there could be ‘confusion’ about two Republicans on the ballot named Dan Sullivan The US Department of Justice on Thursday filed a pre-emptive lawsuit in federal court to block the certification of Alaska’s… -
Trump Attacks Murkowski As Alaska Senate Fight Escalates: ‘Worst Senator’Oct 25, 2026 at 07:59 AM EDT Oct 25, 2026 at 08:09 AM EDT President Donald Trump has escalated his criticism of Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski as a high-stakes Alaska Senate race intensifies, branding the longtime senator one of the… -
Trump claims midterm momentum in tarmac gaggle, attacks Dem rivals in Michigan and Alaska Senate racesSpeaking before departing for Michigan, President Donald Trump argued his campaign blitz has "turned the whole thing around," for the GOP. Trump claims midterm momentum in tarmac gaggle, attacks Dem rivals in Michigan and Alaska Senate… -
It's 'insulting Alaskan voters': Sen. Booker on the DOJ lawsuit to block Alaska Senate results if Republican incumbent losesSen. Cory Booker joins Kasie Hunt to discuss the DOJ filing a lawsuit to block Alaska US Senate results if Republican incumbent loses. It’s ‘insulting Alaskan voters’: Sen. Booker on the DOJ lawsuit to block Alaska Senate results if… - DOJ seeks to block Alaska Senate result if Republican incumbent narrowly losesBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. The Justice Department…
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AG Todd Blanche says DOJ is "doing our own research under the law" with Alaska Senate challengeOctober 25, 2026 / 1:38 PM EDT / CBS News Washington — Attorney General Todd Blanche said Sunday that the Justice Department was looking to "put guardrails in place" with its move to prevent the Alaska Senate election from being certified… -
Sen. Kim: Lawsuit to block Alaska Senate result makes "clear who's calling the shots" at DOJSenator Andy Kim (D-NJ) talks to Kaitlan Collins about President Trump saying he ordered the Department of Justice to try to block the certification of Alaska's Senate election if the Republican candidate loses. Sen. Kim: Lawsuit to block… -
Justice Department attempts to block certification of Alaska Senate race if Republican losesPresident Trump is calling into question the integrity of the upcoming Alaska Senate vote, asking the Justice Department to block future certification over possible confusion around the identities of two candidates who share the same name… -
Blanche defends Trump-ordered lawsuit over Alaska Senate election certificationThe lawsuit, filed last week, cites what it argues is likely voter confusion over the name Daniel J. Sullivan, a retired teacher also on the ballot. The DOJ said confusion over the two Sullivans could help former Alaska Democratic Rep… -
Justice Department sues to block Alaska Senate race results if Republican losesAt President Trump's direction, the Justice Department sued Friday to block the certification of the Alaska Senate race if Republican incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan loses, citing the presence of another candidate on the ballot bearing the… -
Alaska Senate candidate Mary Peltola delays campaign stops after car crashPeltola and her family sustained minor injuries after a driver struck the car transporting group to campaign stop Mary Peltola, a Democrat who is running for Alaska’s lone US Senate seat, and her family suffered minor injuries in a car…
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13.88%median
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions