Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
28.14%median
14%34%
Median 28.14%Middle half 25.94% – 30.67%
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WA-05 House election: Carmela Conroy vote percent
The odds
45.02%median
34%54%
Median 45.02%Middle half 42.39% – 47.82%
How the odds have moved
Median: 45.77% on Oct 19, 45.02% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 36% | 97% | 95¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | ||
| At least 38% | 96% | 93¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | ||
| At least 40% | 91% | 86¢ | 95¢ | $1.05 | ||
| At least 42% | 79% | 74¢ | 83¢ | $1.20 | ||
| At least 44% | 61% | 56¢ | 65¢ | $1.54 | ||
| At least 46% | 40% | 36¢ | 44¢ | $2.27 | 5.00 | |
| At least 48% | 24% | 19¢ | 28¢ | $3.57 | ||
| At least 50% | 10% | 6¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | 29.00 | |
| At least 52% | 5% | 2¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: WA- House, Carmela Conroy
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Carmela Conroy thinks she can beat Baumgartner this time. Who is she?The challenger wants to be the first Democrat since ’92 to be elected to the 5th Congressional District seat. The person in charge of the US embassy in the city was a diplomat from Eastern Washington named Carmela Conroy. “I got a call… -
In tight WA House race, sparks fly over safety at challenger’s businessWASHINGTON, D.C. â John Braun often points to his credentials as the president of his family's manufacturing company in his campaign to unseat U.S. Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez. Javascript is required to use this website. Washington… -
Congressional candidates Baumgartner and Conroy answer Inlander reader questionsCarmela Conroy and Michael Baumgartner at the NAACP debate on Oct. 14 at the Spokane Central Library. Earlier this year, we spoke with the team over at Bellingham’s Cascadia Daily News to learn about their “Civic Agenda,” a huge project… -
Baumgartner, Conroy burn through campaign cash as election loomsThere are less than two weeks before the November election, and both Republican Congressman Michael Baumgartner and Democratic challenger Carmela Conroy are burning through their campaign cash faster than they can get it in a final attempt… - In tight WA House race, sparks fly over safety at challenger’s business - The Seattle TimesIn tight WA House race, sparks fly over safety at challenger’s business The Seattle Times
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Is a vote for Michael Baumgartner a vote for Trump?District 5's Congressman isn't full-on MAGA — but you have to be paying close attention to notice US Rep. Michael Baumgartner, very clearly, is not a member of the anti-Trump resistance. Just ask President Donald Trump. "Michael has my… -
Amid potential blue wave, Spokane Republican vies to stay in CongressU.S. Rep. Michael Baumgartner, R-Spokane, at the Hotel Davenport in Spokane in September. (Karen Ducey / The Seattle Times) Democratic candidate Carmela Conroy at Riverfront Park in Spokane in September. (Karen Ducey / The Seattle Times)… -
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Letters for Friday, Oct. 16Living in Michael Baumgartner’s legacy I just don’t know who to vote for so I’m not going to vote at all. Taking this easy way out is one of the reasons we currently have the most corrupt and potentially deadly presidential administration… -
Baumgartner, Conroy meet twice in two days as election approachesCongressman Michael Baumgartner and Democratic challenger Carmela Conroy faced off twice in the last two days, in a forum hosted by the NAACP on Wednesday and a debate hosted by the Rotary on Thursday– one of their last chances to… -
Baumgartner and Conroy clash over affordability in 5th District debateSPOKANE COUNTY, Wash. — Ahead of the midterm elections, two candidates vying for Washington's 5th Congressional District seat debated in downtown Spokane on affordability, trade policy and global affairs. Congressman Michael Baumgartner… -
Vote Conroy for CongressCarmela Conroy has all the values, experience and diplomacy needed to pass legislation that will correct the shameful voting record of congressional Republican incumbent Michael Baumgarnter in the Nov. 3 election. From his first day in… - Letters for Thursday, Oct. 15Vote Baumgartner! Have you forgotten what the Biden administration put this country through? Carmela Conroy, Mayor Lisa Brown and Gov. Ferguson all come from this same school of thought, as do most of Spokane’s City Council. We need to…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions