UT-04 House election: Jonny Larsen vote percent

Kalshi Elections › House Closes Nov 3, 2027 · $75 traded · $75 at stake · prices read 5 h ago

The odds

33.62%median

22%46%

Median 33.62%Middle half 29.5% – 38.13%

How the odds have moved

Median: 33.1% on Oct 19, 33.62% now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
At least 24%	95%	91¢	99¢	$1.01
At least 26%	91%	86¢	95¢	$1.05
At least 28%	83%	78¢	87¢	$1.15
At least 30%	73%	68¢	77¢	$1.30
At least 32%	61%	56¢	65¢	$1.54
At least 34%	48%	43¢	52¢	$1.92
At least 36%	36%	31¢	40¢	$2.50	210
At least 38%	26%	21¢	30¢	$3.33
At least 40%	18%	13¢	22¢	$4.55
At least 42%	11%	6¢	15¢	$6.67
At least 44%	7%	2¢	11¢	$9.09

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: UT- House, Jonny Larsen

Search ›

Livestream: Amendment B, new legislative race ratings and moreUtah Political Watch · 6 days agoJoin our livestream, "What the Heck is Happening in Utah Politics?" Tuesday night at 7:30 pm Former Salt Lake County Mayor Peter Corroon plans to run for Salt Lake City Mayor next year, adding his name to a field that is filling up even…
Ten Utah House seats shift toward Democrats in latest ratings updateUtah Political Watch · 12 days agoRepublicans are still favored to keep their supermajority, but the path to breaking it just got shorter Every change in Utah Political Watch’s latest House race ratings points the same way: toward Democrats. Ten of the 75 districts shifted…
Utah Senate race ratings Update: 4 races shift toward DemocratsUtah Political Watch · 13 days agoEvery rating change in Utah Political Watch’s latest update of the 2026 state Senate map moves toward Democrats. For the first time since we began publishing ratings, one race is a genuine toss-up. Four of the 15 seats on the November…
Livestream: Utah 2nd Congressional District debateUtah Political Watch · 14 days agoJoin our livestream of the 2nd Congressional District debate between Republican incumbent Blake Moore and Democrat Peter Crosby. Utah Political Watch's Bryan Schott will offer live commentary. The attorneys defending the man accused of…
Out of the picture: Trevor Lee's mother removes him from her campaign websiteUtah Political Watch · 18 days agoSusan Lee did not respond to questions or a request for comment. "To me, the action speaks for itself," Milburn said. Milburn served three terms on the Davis County Commission from 2007 to 2018. The Utah Attorney General’s Office charged…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onElections Office, Office of the Lieutenant Governor, Salt Lake City, UT

Trading closesNov 3, 2027 10:00 AM ET

Traded$75 (210 contracts)

At stake$75

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Jonny Larsen in the 2026 UT-04 House election is 24% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions