Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
28.42%median
14%34%
Median 28.42%Middle half 26.14% – 30.91%
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SD-AL House election: Nikki Gronli vote percent
The odds
38.25%median
28%50%
Median 38.25%Middle half 35.53% – 40.94%
How the odds have moved
Median: 38.09% on Oct 19, 38.25% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 30% | 97% | 94¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | ||
| At least 32% | 96% | 91¢ | $1.05 | 200 | ||
| At least 34% | 87% | 82¢ | 91¢ | $1.10 | 200 | |
| At least 36% | 72% | 67¢ | 76¢ | $1.32 | 201 | |
| At least 38% | 53% | 48¢ | 57¢ | $1.75 | 208 | |
| At least 40% | 33% | 28¢ | 37¢ | $2.70 | ||
| At least 42% | 17% | 12¢ | 21¢ | $4.76 | ||
| At least 44% | 7% | 2¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | ||
| At least 46% | 4% | 7¢ | $14.29 | |||
| At least 48% | 3% | 5¢ | $20.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: SD-AL House, Nikki Gronli
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Poll: Sen. Rounds leads challenger Bengs 56-37%(South Dakota News Watch) - Republican Sen. Mike Rounds leads Independent challenger Brian Bengs 56% to 37%, according to the latest South Dakota Poll sponsored by News Watch and the Chiesman Center for Democracy at the University of South… -
Poll: Rounds Leads Bengs In S. Dakota Senate RaceRepublican Sen. Mike Rounds leads Independent challenger Brian Bengs 56% to 37%, according to the latest South Dakota Poll sponsored by News Watch and the Chiesman Center for Democracy at the University of South Dakota. The Oct. 12-14… -
Poll: Jackley leads Gronli 60-32% for U.S. HouseRepublican Attorney General Marty Jackley leads Democrat Nikki Gronli 60% to 32%, according to the latest South Dakota Poll sponsored by News Watch and the Chiesman Center for Democracy at the University of South Dakota. The Oct. 12-14… -
Poll: Jackley Has Big Lead In South Dakota House RaceRepublican Attorney General Marty Jackley leads Democrat Nikki Gronli 60% to 32%, according to the latest South Dakota Poll sponsored by News Watch and the Chiesman Center for Democracy at the University of South Dakota. The Oct. 12-14… -
Jackley Raises Bengs-Level Cash, Far More Than GronliHere’s quirky little data point: in the third quarter, independent Brian Bengs raised more money ($892K) for his U.S. Senate campaign than his opponent Mike Rounds ($433K) and both people running for U.S. House, Republican Marty Jackley… -
U.S. House candidatesBlack Hills Pioneer Nikki Gronli and Marty Jackley respectively. Pioneer graphic Voters in South Dakota will head to the polls Nov. 3 to vote on the vacant U.S. House seat. Two people are running for 1 open position which is a 2-year term… -
For US House, Jackley has funding lead over GronliPIERRE, S.D. (KELO) -- If campaign donations were the only measure, Republicans look highly likely to hold onto South Dakota's seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. Federal campaign reports show that the Republican nominee, Marty… -
Gronli Says She will Cross Aisles to Get Things Donemykxlg.com Democratic candidate Nikki Gronli of Dell Rapids says statewide outreach convinced her to enter the race. Following a series of town hall events, Gronli said residents across the state encouraged her to launch a campaign, and if… -
Ex-Biden appointee faces attorney general in US House race with differences on tariffs, immigrationPIERRE, S.D. (South Dakota Searchlight) – Nikki Gronli would love to have her old job back. During a debate earlier this month with Attorney General Marty Jackley, her Republican opponent in the race for the state’s lone seat in the U.S… -
Ep. 39: Why South Dakota’s Republican attorney general wants to be a member of the US HouseJackley faces Democrat Nikki Gronli on the Nov. 3 general election ballot. To learn more about Gronli, check out her interview with Searchlight Report. Jackley and Gronli are competing for a seat that will be vacated by U.S. Rep. Dusty… -
Hear from Calabrese, Howard at candidate forum Oct. 21Voters in South Dakota Senate District 34 can hear from the candidates seeking to represent them during a candidate forum in Rapid City. Scenes from the 8th annual Remembering the Children Walk on Monday, Oct. 12, in Rapid City. Nikki…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions