IL-16 House election: Paul Nolley vote percent

Kalshi Elections › House Closes Nov 3, 2027 · $33 today · $41 traded · $40 at stake · prices read 9 h ago

The odds

40.93%median
32%52%
Median 40.93%Middle half 38.29% – 43.53%

How the odds have moved

Median: 40.58% on Oct 19, 40.93% now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
At least 34% 96% 92¢ $1.04 2.00
At least 36% 91% ▲ 1 86¢ 95¢ $1.05
At least 38% 78% ▲ 1 73¢ 82¢ $1.22
At least 40% 61% ▲ 2 56¢ 65¢ $1.54 54.00
At least 42% 38% ▲ 1 33¢ 43¢ $2.33
At least 44% 21% ▲ 1 16¢ 26¢ $3.85
At least 46% 10% 5¢ 14¢ $7.14 67.00
At least 48% 4% 8¢ $12.50
At least 50% 3% 5¢ $20.00

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: IL- House, Paul Nolley

Search ›
  • 2026 Election Questionnaire: Paul Nolley, U.S. House of Representatives, 16th DistrictShaw Local · 4 days agoWhat office are you seeking: U.S. Representative for Illinois’ 16th Congressional District What is your political party? Democratic What is your current age? 37 Occupation and employer: Executive Director, Project First Rate What offices…
  • Pritzker reports over $9M in tax returns, not including blind trustpantagraph.com · 6 days agoSPRINGFIELD — Gov. JB Pritzker and First Lady MK Pritzker made more than $9 million in adjusted gross income in 2025, according to tax summaries released by his campaign Thursday. Rivian launches new EV model in Illinois, Governor praises…
  • Illinois considering new state holiday for Ulysses S. Grantpantagraph.com · 6 days agoIllinois House Minority Leader Tony McCombie is seeking to establish an annual Ulysses S. Grant Day to recognize the former president’s ties to Illinois and his role in American history. Visitors got the chance to meet the 16th president…
  • ‘Partial win for customers’: ICC approves $82 million rate hike for Nicorpantagraph.com · 7 days agoCHICAGO — The Illinois Commerce Commission approved an $82 million rate hike on Thursday. The amount was negotiated between Nicor Gas and the attorney general’s office as part of a settlement that reduced the company’s original request by…
  • Central Illinois speaks up: Letters to the editor for the week of Oct. 16, 2026pantagraph.com · 11 days agoOur weekly round-up of letters published in the Pantagraph. On November 3, voters in the 16th Congressional District have a choice to elect Paul Nolley, someone who will actually work for all of his constituents, in contrast to the…
  • Election 2026: Bloomington-Normal voter guide, races and resultspantagraph.com · 11 days agoFrom local ballot questions to congressional and statewide contests, The Pantagraph is following the races and issues that matter to voters in Bloomington-Normal and McLean County ahead of the Nov. 3, 2026, general election. Follow The…
  • Letter: Paul Nolley would represent all constituents in 16th Districtpantagraph.com · 13 days agoOn November 3, voters in the 16th Congressional District have a choice to elect Paul Nolley, someone who will actually work for all of his constituents, in contrast to the incumbent, Darin LaHood. David Armes supports Kathy Michael for…
  • Letter: Paul Nolley offers a vision focused on those in needpantagraph.com · 13 days agoDuring these days of reflection and decision, consider the words of 1 John 3:16-17, which remind us that Jesus laid down his life for us and that we should show that same love to others. The passage asks how God's love can remain in…
  • LaHood, Nolley offer competing plans to address rising costs in 16th District racepantagraph.com · 12 days agoRepublican incumbent Darin LaHood and Democrat Paul Nolley identify the cost of living as a top concern but offer different approaches to health care, infrastructure, tariffs, taxes and federal debt. Javascript is required to use this…
  • Letter: Voter sees hope in Paul Nolley's congressional campaignpantagraph.com · 13 days agoDoes this campaign season offer a glimmer of hope? Letter writer Joe Denman argues that The Pantagraph should give differing political viewpoints a fair hearing and let readers draw their own c… David Armes supports Kathy Michael for…
  • Peoria weighs allowing drive-thru cannabis salespantagraph.com · 13 days agoPEORIA — City officials are set to look into a measure that could allow drive-thru cannabis sales in Peoria. Bailey has shifted his strategy by softening his tone, enlisting a Cook County running mate, and focusing more on the Chicago area…
  • Letter: Vote Nolley for CongressShaw Local · 13 days agoSauk Valley Letters to the Editor I wonder why President Trump is so sure that there is election fraud in this country when he won the last election. Now, he is doing everything he can to keep voters from voting on Nov. 3. Maybe he is…

Related markets

All house ›

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions