Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
27.54%median
14%34%
Median 27.54%Middle half 25.28% – 29.95%
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IL-04 House election: Lupe Castillo vote percent
The odds
25.49%median
18%40%
Median 25.49%Middle half 23% – 28%
How the odds have moved
Median: 30.28% on Oct 19, 25.49% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 20% | 95% | ▼ 3 | 90¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | |
| At least 22% | 84% | ▼ 12 | 79¢ | 89¢ | $1.12 | |
| At least 24% | 66% | ▼ 18 | 61¢ | 71¢ | $1.41 | 605 |
| At least 26% | 45% | ▼ 24 | 40¢ | 49¢ | $2.04 | 544 |
| At least 28% | 25% | ▼ 21 | 21¢ | 29¢ | $3.45 | 501 |
| At least 30% | 13% | ▼ 11 | 9¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 | 410 |
| At least 32% | 5% | ▼ 5 | 2¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | 5.00 |
| At least 34% | 3% | ▼ 1 | 6¢ | $16.67 | 5.00 | |
| At least 36% | 3% | 5¢ | $20.00 | |||
| At least 38% | 3% | 5¢ | $20.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: IL- House, Lupe Castillo
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4 candidates make their case to voters in Illinois' 4th Congressional District raceBERWYN, Ill. (WLS) -- The four candidates seeking to represent Illinois' 4th Congressional District presented their competing visions to voters during a debate Tuesday night at Berwyn City Hall, less than two weeks before Election Day… -
Illinois 4th District race: Chuy García’s handpicked successor Patty García defends path to CongressPatty García’s path to Congress was paved long before Election Day. The challenge now for the first-time candidate: Shaping how the voters she wants to represent see her. Her pitch was clear as she spoke to campaign volunteers in Chicago’s… -
Illinois' 4th Congressional District candidates make case to votersIllinois' 4th Congressional District candidates Patty Garcia, Chris Getty, Lupe Castillo and Ed Hershey made their case to voters for the election. Bukangi the shark became an unlikely sensation after it was spotted in a canal in Busan… -
2026 Illinois Midterm Elections Voter GuideRaces on your ballot, explained — so you're not guessing at the polls. Free thanks to the generous support of our members Deadlines and voting dates for the 2026 Illinois general election. Selection of races we're covering in the Chicago… -
Lyons Mayor Rakes In $400K For Congress Race, Almost Reaching Democrat Hopeful's HaulLYONS, IL – Few doubt the campaign fundraising prowess of Lyons Mayor Christopher Getty. For years, Getty, also Lyons Township's elected supervisor, has raised hundreds of thousands for his local campaign accounts, despite facing no… -
Race for Congress: Patty Garcia vs. Lupe Castillo in Illinois' 4th DistrictCBS News Race for Congress: Patty Garcia vs. Lupe Castillo in Illinois' 4th District 3 things learned at Halas Hall: William's update, no starter announced for Falcons, player injuries Prisco's Family Market in Aurora celebrates 100 years… -
Full interview with Lupe Castillo, candidate for Illinois 4th Congressional DistrictCBS News Full interview with Lupe Castillo, candidate for Illinois 4th Congressional District St. Sabina asking public for help to keep social service center running Cook County State's Attorney Eileen Burke says county's electronic… -
4th District race in Illinois pits Democrat Patty Garcia against Republican Lupe CastilloOctober 14, 2026 / 5:43 PM CDT / CBS Chicago U.S. Rep. Jesus "Chuy" Garcia is retiring at the end of his term, and four candidates have lined up to run for his seat in Illinois' 4th Congressional District in the upcoming November election… -
Archeologists find what’s believed to be world’s oldest shipwreckCBS News Archeologists find what’s believed to be world’s oldest shipwreck 3 things learned at Halas Hall: William's update, no starter announced for Falcons, player injuries Prisco's Family Market in Aurora celebrates 100 years of service… -
Roseland family's life insurance payout held up after CyberattackCBS News Roseland family's life insurance payout held up after Cyberattack 3 things learned at Halas Hall: William's update, no starter announced for Falcons, player injuries Prisco's Family Market in Aurora celebrates 100 years of service… -
City Council approves $260 million settlement in 17 wrongful murder convictionsCBS News City Council approves $260 million settlement in 17 wrongful murder convictions 3 things learned at Halas Hall: William's update, no starter announced for Falcons, player injuries Prisco's Family Market in Aurora celebrates 100… -
Families shocked as Evanston-Skokie District 65 announces plans to close 2 schoolsCBS News Families shocked as Evanston-Skokie District 65 announces plans to close 2 schools 3 things learned at Halas Hall: William's update, no starter announced for Falcons, player injuries Prisco's Family Market in Aurora celebrates 100…
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All house ›Alaska Governor election: Dave Bronson vote percent (1st Round)
15.57%median
8%28%
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Alaska Governor election: Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins vote percent (1st Round)
45.85%median
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Alaska Governor election: Treg Taylor vote percent (1st Round)
10.37%median
0%16%
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Montana Senate election: Alani Bankhead vote percent
13.94%median
7%40%
Median 13.94%Middle half 10.88% – 17.63%
Montana Senate election: Kurt Alme vote percent
45.5%median
30%65%
Median 45.5%Middle half 42.33% – 48.36%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions