Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
27.54%median
14%34%
Median 27.54%Middle half 25.28% – 29.95%
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IA-04 House election: Dave Dawson vote percent
The odds
38.67%median
28%48%
Median 38.67%Middle half 35.86% – 41.93%
How the odds have moved
Median: 37.71% on Oct 19, 38.67% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 30% | 98% | ▲ 1 | 95¢ | $1.03 | ||
| At least 32% | 96% | 91¢ | $1.05 | |||
| At least 34% | 88% | ▲ 1 | 83¢ | 93¢ | $1.08 | |
| At least 36% | 74% | ▲ 3 | 69¢ | 79¢ | $1.27 | |
| At least 38% | 56% | ▲ 5 | 51¢ | 61¢ | $1.64 | |
| At least 40% | 38% | ▲ 7 | 33¢ | 43¢ | $2.33 | 11.00 |
| At least 42% | 25% | ▲ 8 | 20¢ | 29¢ | $3.45 | 1.2K |
| At least 44% | 9% | ▲ 3 | 4¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | 1.2K |
| At least 46% | 4% | ▲ 1 | 8¢ | $12.50 | 39.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: IA- House, Dave Dawson
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Iowa voter guide 2026: Key races, deadlines and voting locations for the 2026 electionIowa voters will head to the polls Tuesday, Nov. 3, to decide races for U.S. Senate, governor, Congress and local offices. Here's what voters in Scott, Muscatine and Clinton counties need to know before casting their ballots. From… -
Beyond the Podium: Dave Dawson discusses raising minimum wage, farm bill and immigrationDES MOINES, Iowa — The seat is open in Iowa's Fourth Congressional District after Representative Randy Feenstra launched an unsuccessful bid for Iowa governor. It's the most conservative district in Iowa, with political forecasters rating… -
Meet the Candidates: Chris Jones(Lansing) -- KMA News continues its "Meet the Candidates" series, featuring the candidate running in key races in the November general election. Today, we turn our attention to the race for Iowa's agriculture secretary, with a report on… -
Fundraising tight in Iowa’s competitive U.S. House racesDemocrat Christina Bohannan (left) speaks Oct. 21, 2024, during a debate with Republican U.S. Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks hosted by Iowa PBS in Johnston. The two are candidates again for the U.S. House seat in Iowa’s 1st Congressional… -
Wide open race for Iowa’s 4th congressional district pits Dave Dawson against Chris McGowanIt's a wide-open race for the northwestern Iowa seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. On Nov. 3, Iowans in congressional district 4 will cast their vote for who they want representing them in Congress. Randy Feenstra left the seat to… -
Iowa’s 4th District is a Republican stronghold where turnout could shape statewide racesRepublican Chris McGowan is favored to win the race in Iowa’s 4th Congressional District — the state’s most conservative House seat. But Democrat Dave Dawson is trying take the district in a different direction. A strong showing for either… -
Letter: Dawson best choice for U.S. HouseTo The N'West Iowa REVIEW: Dave Dawson is the best choice to represent Iowa’s 4th District in the U.S. House of Representatives. Dave is a proven public servant who has worked as a prosecutor in the Woodbury County Attorney’s Office for… -
Beyond the Podium: Chris McGowan talks national debt, Iran war and immigrationDES MOINES, Iowa — Iowa’s 4th Congressional District is an open seat this year after U.S. Rep. Randy Feenstra launched an unsuccessful campaign for governor. Republican Chris McGowan and Democrat Dave Dawson are running for the seat… -
Iowa Democrats hold cash edge as US House races enter final stretchRep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks shakes hands with supporters as she exits her Scott County Rally Oct. 9, 2026 in Davenport, Iowa. Democrat Christina Bohannan, a candidate in Iowa's 1st Congressional District, speaks to Joe Stutler at the… -
President Donald Trump to rally in Sioux City on Oct. 22 before the midtermsDES MOINES — President Donald Trump will headline a campaign rally in Sioux City on Thursday, Oct. 22 for Republican candidates in Iowa in advance of the midterm election. U.S. Speaker of the House Mike Johnson accompanied Joe Mitchell… -
Iowa 4th District candidates both disagree with Trump’s Russian diesel dealRepublican Chris McGowan and Democrat Dave Dawson, candidates in Iowa's 4th Congressional District, outlined their potential policy plans and decisions in foreign relationships, agriculture and technology during an "Iowa Press" debate Oct… -
Iowa House 4 hopefuls find common groundDemocrat Dave Dawson (left) and Republican Chris McGowan, candidates for the U.S. House in Iowa’s 4th Congressional District, take questions during a Wednesday evening debate in Iowa PBS studios in Johnston. JOHNSTON — Republican Chris…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions