FL-02 House election: Austin Rogers vote percent

Kalshi Elections › House Closes Nov 3, 2027 · prices read 6 h ago

The odds

54.65%median

48%66%

Median 54.65%Middle half 51.93% – 57.35%

How the odds have moved

Median: 54.6% on Oct 24, 54.65% now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays
At least 50%	89%	▲ 1	84¢	93¢	$1.08
At least 52%	75%	▲ 1	70¢	79¢	$1.27
At least 54%	56%	▲ 1	52¢	61¢	$1.64
At least 56%	37%	▲ 1	32¢	41¢	$2.44
At least 58%	20%		15¢	24¢	$4.17
At least 60%	9%		4¢	13¢	$7.69
At least 62%	4%			7¢	$14.29
At least 64%	3%			5¢	$20.00

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: FL- House, Austin Rogers

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FL House & GOP Pulling FundingFOX 9 Minneapolis-St. Paul · 5 days agoFOX 9 Minneapolis-St. Paul A look at Florida's congressional races and top GOP groups pulling funding from first-term incumbents.
Amanda Green, Austin Rogers to face off in only Tallahassee forumMiami Herald · 8 days agoRepublican Austin Rogers and Democrat Amanda Green, who are contending to replace outgoing U.S. Rep. Neal Dunn in Congress, will meet in their only Leon County candidate forum, on Oct. 27. The luncheon and forum is hosted by the Network of…
Blue Dogs rush in for Amanda Marie Green in CD 2@Fla_Pol · 12 days agoThe fiscal hawks in the House Democratic Caucus are sweeping into the Panhandle to help Amanda Marie Green. The Blue Dog PAC, a moderate group focused on electing fiscally conservative and national security-focused Democrats, endorsed the…
Blue Dog PAC Endorses Seven New Battleground CandidatesBlue Dog PAC · 12 days agoRep. Adam Gray, Blue Dog PAC Chair, said: “These candidates have flown helicopters and led soldiers, run ranches and family farms, managed city budgets, and found ways to save taxpayers money. They’ve spent their careers making tough…
Principles Over Party: Why I’m Supporting Austin Rogers for CongressMedium · 13 days agoWhy constitutional liberty, faith, family, fiscal responsibility, and the willingness to find common ground matter more than agreeing on everything. There is something I think we have lost in American politics: the ability to support a…
“Sodagate” Shows Republican Desperation and Rat F***King at its worst.Daily Kos · 13 days agoPolls and early turnout have made Republicans so desperate they are rolling out vicious and absurd dirty tricks to tar Democrats. We saw that yesterday on the Senate level with the bogus story that James Talarico had checked into an Ohio…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onDivision of Elections, Office of the Secretary of State, Tallahassee, FL

Trading closesNov 3, 2027 10:00 AM ET

Traded$0 (0 contracts)

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Austin Rogers in the 2026 FL-02 House election is 50% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions