Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
28.42%median
14%34%
Median 28.42%Middle half 26.14% – 30.91%
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CA-33 House election: Pete Aguilar vote percent
The odds
62.15%median
52%74%
Median 62.15%Middle half 59.27% – 64.87%
How the odds have moved
Median: 60.51% on Oct 19, 62.15% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 54% | 96% | 93¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | ||
| At least 56% | 94% | 90¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | ||
| At least 58% | 85% | 80¢ | 89¢ | $1.12 | 200 | |
| At least 60% | 70% | 65¢ | 74¢ | $1.35 | ||
| At least 62% | 52% | 47¢ | 56¢ | $1.79 | 400 | |
| At least 64% | 32% | 27¢ | 36¢ | $2.78 | ||
| At least 66% | 17% | 12¢ | 21¢ | $4.76 | ||
| At least 68% | 7% | 2¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | ||
| At least 70% | 3% | 6¢ | $16.67 | |||
| At least 72% | 3% | 5¢ | $20.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: CA- House, Pete Aguilar
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California leaders rebuke Trump administration’s push over alleged noncitizen votingCalifornia’s top leaders have rebuked the Trump administration’s efforts to quash alleged noncitizen voting. Less than two weeks before the midterms, federal prosecutors called upon California election officials to verify within 48 hours a… -
California blasts Trump team’s 48-hour ballot sweepCalifornia’s political leadership is pushing back hard against a Justice Department effort to flag tens of thousands of ballots in the final stretch before the midterms, warning that the rush could sweep up eligible voters and chill… -
California leader calls attack on alleged noncitizen voting ‘weaponizing the law’California's attorney general on Saturday rebuked the Trump administration's efforts to quash alleged noncitizen voting, calling it "politicizing and weaponizing the law". Rob Bonta, the state's attorney general, said the justice… -
Obama Slams Trump Probe into Ilhan Omar as 'Appalling' — and Says It's Everyone's Problem"It is a basic principle of American democracy that the government can't selectively target individuals simply because of their political beliefs or what they say," Obama wrote. He added that the willingness of any administration to pursue… - Donald Trump threatens action against Clinton, Obama, Biden over possible impeachmentUS President Donald Trump indicated that he could pursue criminal investigations or release damaging information about former US secretary of state Hillary Clinton and former presidents Barack Obama and Joe Biden if Democrats attempt to…
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Trump Threatens Criminal Action Against Clinton, Obama, And Biden If Impeached AgainPresident tells Newsmax he possesses damaging information on three prominent Democrats and previously chose not to act on it out of respect for the presidency, but warns another impeachment attempt could change the calculation as midterm… -
Dems call Trump 'a total failure' over inflation as White House cites economic growthWhite House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett analyzes the September CPI report, consumer spending and addresses negative views on the economy from voters on 'Varney & Co.' Democrats lambasted President Donald Trump while… -
Democrats cheered Mar-a-Lago raid in 2022, but now call search of Omar's home 'weaponization'From “no one is above the law” to “corrupt weaponization”: How Democratic rhetoric shifted when law enforcement targeted one of their own. Ironically, the investigation into Omar's activities, associations and finances first began in the… -
Trump targets anti-war Muslim congresswoman three weeks before midtermsTEHRAN — U.S. federal agents with Homeland Security Investigations executed a search warrant early Monday morning at the Washington residence of Representative Ilhan Omar. Law enforcement personnel blocked off the surrounding street and… -
US House Dem leaders condemn Homeland Security raid on home of Rep. Ilhan OmarPresident Donald Trump on Monday tried to boost Sen. Jon Husted’s reelection campaign by attacking two groups of Black immigrants during a rally in Ohio, where an organization with Republican ties began promoting a socialist candidate over… -
Trump calls Ilhan Omar 'totally crooked,' says he had 'nothing to do' with raid on home(TNND) — Hours after federal agents searched the Washington, D.C., home of Rep. Ilhan Omar, D-Minn., on Monday, President Donald Trump called her “totally crooked” while insisting he had “nothing to do” with the criminal investigation amid… -
Federal agents raid Ilhan Omar’s home as she denounces political intimidationThe Minnesota Democrat says the raid is an escalation in a campaign against her. Authorities have not publicly explained the operation’s purpose or scope. Federal agents raided the home of Rep. Ilhan Omar, the Minnesota Democrat and…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions