Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
28.68%median
14%34%
Median 28.68%Middle half 26.33% – 31.08%
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CA-06 House election: Kevin Kiley vote percent
The odds
43.53%median
34%54%
Median 43.53%Middle half 40.69% – 46.23%
How the odds have moved
Median: 44.08% on Oct 19, 43.53% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 36% | 97% | 93¢ | $1.04 | |||
| At least 38% | 93% | 88¢ | 97¢ | $1.03 | ||
| At least 40% | 81% | 76¢ | 85¢ | $1.18 | ||
| At least 42% | 65% | 60¢ | 69¢ | $1.45 | 286 | |
| At least 44% | 46% | 41¢ | 50¢ | $2.00 | 23.00 | |
| At least 46% | 27% | 22¢ | 31¢ | $3.23 | ||
| At least 48% | 14% | 9¢ | 18¢ | $5.56 | ||
| At least 50% | 6% | 2¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | 39.00 | |
| At least 52% | 3% | 6¢ | $16.67 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: CA- House, Kevin Kiley
Search ›- Kevin Kiley and the issues that matter to California seniorsFor California seniors, Washington policy is anything but abstract. Taxes determine how far retirement savings stretch. Medicare policy can determine whether seniors can continue seeing their doctors. Social Security provides a financial…
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Kiley: I Voted Against Tariffs That Raise Costs, My Opponent Voted for California Gas Tax That Raised PricesOn Wednesday’s broadcast of CNN’s “The Story Is,” Rep. Kevin Kiley (I-CA) said that he voted against tariffs that have raised costs, while his Democratic opponent “voted for a gas tax increase that has more than doubled the gas tax The… -
Matthew McConaughey is singing the praises of independents. Could his advice give the midterms to Democrats?Speaking to the nation’s governors in Utah in 2024, Matthew McConaughey said he was on a “learning tour” when it comes to deciding to seek public office and had been for “probably the last six years.” Two years later, some would say it’s… -
Independent streakThe unofficial guide to official Washington, every morning and weekday afternoons. 10/20/2026 01:59 PM EDT ANCHORAGE, Alaska — National Democrats are lining up behind Bill Hill, a fisherman and educator they hope can oust GOP Rep. Nick… -
Additional California federal lawmakers receive suspicious white powder envelopesCalifornia federal lawmakers continue to report this week that they are among the dozens of elected officials who have received envelopes containing suspicious white powder. On Tuesday, Reps. Jared Huffman, D-San Rafael, and Jim Costa… -
Americans for Prosperity Honors California Lawmakers with “Pioneers for Prosperity” AwardsArlington, VA — Americans for Prosperity (AFP) awarded three members of Congress “Pioneers for Prosperity” awards. U.S. Representatives Young Kim (CA-40), Kevin Kiley (CA-03), and David Valadao (CA-22) earned this distinction for their… - Fundraising Update: Representative Kevin Kiley just disclosed $409.6K of new fundraisingRepresentative Kevin Kiley just disclosed $409.6K of fundraising in a Q3 FEC disclosure filed on October 15th, 2026. This is the 306th most from all Q3 reports we have seen from politicians so far this year. 85.8% came from individual…
- Rep. Thompson receives threatening letter containing white powderU.S. Rep. Mike Thompson said on Monday that he was one of nearly a dozen politicians in California to recently receive a threatening letter containing white powder. “Recently, suspicious envelopes containing white powder have been mailed…
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Why Former Sen. Joe Manchin is endorsing Rep. Kevin KileyLatest News from CNN Politics CNN Why Former Sen. Joe Manchin is endorsing Rep. Kevin Kiley Former Independent Senator Joe Manchin, and Independent Congressman Kevin Kiley join Kasie Hunt to break some news. -
The Essential Independent Candidate Effect in California’s Latino VoteMore than 5.3 million California voters enter the final weeks of the 2026 election without belonging to either of the state’s two major political parties. As of September, nearly 23 percent of registered voters in California were… -
California's proposition 40 aims to fund health care via wealth taxProposition 40 will appear on the November ballot and if passed, would impose a one-time tax on taxpayers with a net worth over $1 billion. The tax would apply to 200 Californians who exceed the required net worth. It would be due in 2027… -
314 Action Fund vs. MAHA Action: Kevin Kiley Receives Check from Anti-Vax PAC in Race for CA-06$17 is our average donation! Yesterday, MAHA PAC named Rep. Kevin Kiley among six House candidates receiving $250,000 in support, deepening his ties to RFK Jr.’s Make America Healthy Again movement. In response, 314 Action President…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions