Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
28.68%median
14%34%
Median 28.68%Middle half 26.33% – 31.08%
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IA-03 House election: Sarah Trone Garriott vote percent
The odds
54.05%median
42%62%
Median 54.05%Middle half 51.58% – 56.52%
How the odds have moved
Median: 52.16% on Oct 20, 54.05% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 44% | 98% | 95¢ | $1.03 | |||
| At least 46% | 97% | ▲ 1 | 94¢ | $1.03 | ||
| At least 48% | 97% | ▲ 4 | 94¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 4.6K |
| At least 50% | 85% | ▲ 3 | 83¢ | 86¢ | $1.16 | 194 |
| At least 52% | 73% | ▲ 6 | 68¢ | 77¢ | $1.30 | 193 |
| At least 54% | 51% | ▲ 4 | 46¢ | 55¢ | $1.82 | 40.00 |
| At least 56% | 29% | ▲ 1 | 24¢ | 34¢ | $2.94 | 32.00 |
| At least 58% | 14% | ▼ 1 | 9¢ | 18¢ | $5.56 | |
| At least 60% | 6% | ▼ 1 | 2¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Sarah Trone Garriott, IA- House
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Why some Iowa Republicans are backing Sarah Trone Garriott over Zach NunnIowa state Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott talks Republican crossover voters, rising costs, healthcare, and her race against Rep. Zach Nunn in Iowa’s 3rd Congressional District in a new Gloves Off interview with COURIER founder Tara McGowan… -
Sarah Trone Garriott meets with Iowa seniors to discuss Social SecuritySarah Trone Garriott, Democratic candidate for Iowa's 3rd Congressional District, met with Iowa seniors in Des Moines this morning to discuss the future of Social Security as part of her campaign. She hosted a roundtable discussion at… -
Beyond the Podium: Sarah Trone Garriott talks immigration, farm bill and term limitsDES MOINES, Iowa — Iowa's 3rd Congressional District is once again among the most competitive House races in the country, with the outcome potentially playing a role in determining which party controls the U.S. House. Political forecasters… -
Woman in ad who said a Democrat endangers kids pleaded guilty to endangering kidsBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. A Republican woman in… -
Iowa Republican councilwoman calls House candidate ‘dangerous’ to children. Then alleges ‘spiritual abuse’ when her own past is exposedRepublican councilwoman Shellie Flockhart of Dallas Center, Iowa, appeared in a political ad where she accused Democratic congressional hopeful Sarah Trone Garriott of being a danger to children. But amid her remarks, Flockhart herself had… -
Mom who starred in $1M campaign ad accusing Democrat of endangering children is exposed as convicted child endangererBy VICTOR HELLER, US REPORTER A Republican city councilwoman who appeared in a campaign video warning that an Iowa Democratic congressional candidate posed a danger to children was previously convicted of child endangerment herself. Sarah… -
Iowa Ad Calling Democrat ‘Dangerous’ BoomerangsJust dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 192 “A Republican woman in a campaign commercial gave a grave warning about Sarah Trone Garriott, the Democratic candidate in one of Iowa’s most competitive House districts,” the Washington Post reports… -
Ad Against House Candidate Has an Ironic TwistThe Washington Post is highlighting an irony about a political ad airing in Iowa: In it, a public official calls out a Democratic candidate for the House as "just plain... Ad Against House Candidate Has an Ironic Twist The Washington Post… -
AOC Goes Full Woke On 'Trans Rights' Because She's A 'Girl's Girl'Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) said at a Maine town hall Thursday that she defends transgender rights because she is a "girl's girl," telling the crowd she does not support trans rights just to protect her own, but supports "the… -
GOP attack ad backfires as woman warning about kids exposed for DUI with her kids in carA GOP super PAC ad branding an Iowa Democrat a danger to kids has run into trouble with its own messenger. Shellie Flockhart, a Dallas Center city council member featured in the Congressional Leadership Fund spot, pleaded guilty to child… -
Midterms: Is the “Religious Left” Trying to Con Conservative Voters?One candidate has chosen a pastor who isn’t sure Jesus Christ existed and believes He didn’t die for our sins. Another supposes that Scripture got it wrong on sexuality. A third expressed discomfort at public Christian displays and…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions