Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
28.68%median
14%34%
Median 28.68%Middle half 26.33% – 31.08%
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CA-22 House election: David Valadao vote percent
The odds
44.95%median
36%56%
Median 44.95%Middle half 42.39% – 47.5%
How the odds have moved
Median: 45.12% on Oct 19, 44.95% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 38% | 97% | 93¢ | $1.04 | |||
| At least 40% | 92% | 87¢ | 96¢ | $1.04 | 189 | |
| At least 42% | 79% | 74¢ | 83¢ | $1.20 | 109 | |
| At least 44% | 61% | 56¢ | 65¢ | $1.54 | 61.00 | |
| At least 46% | 39% | 34¢ | 43¢ | $2.33 | 87.00 | |
| At least 48% | 21% | 16¢ | 25¢ | $4.00 | 281 | |
| At least 50% | 10% | ▲ 1 | 8¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | 4.2K |
| At least 52% | 4% | 7¢ | $14.29 | 300 | ||
| At least 54% | 3% | 5¢ | $20.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: CA- House, David Valadao
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Recommended StoriesWashington Examiner is a news organization based in Washington, D.C., covering Congress, the White House, national security, the courts and elections, with breaking news, investigative reporting and conservative analysis. It publishes a… -
AOC stops by In-N-Out burger during California campaign tripCampaigning for lefty candidates all over the country sure does work up an appetite. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez jumped off the trail to visit an In-N-Out burger after holding an event in Bakersfield, Calif., as part of a nationwide tour… -
AOC grabs In-N-Out after stumping for Central Valley progressiveThe Delano In-N-Out is seen on Dec. 18, 2025. With just over a week to go until the midterm elections, the national political spotlight has descended on Central Valley as it plays host to a key battleground congressional race that may… -
A GOP congressman voted to cut Medicaid. It covers 62% of his district. Can he win?Rep. David Valadao, R-Calif., leaves the stage after speaking at a campaign event in Bakersfield, Calif. on Sept. 30, 2026. Jae C. Hong/AP hide caption Ulises Hernandez, of Bakersfield, Calif., has had health coverage through Medicaid for… -
AOC rallies nearly 800 in Bakersfield for Villegas as Central Valley congressional race heats upBAKERSFIELD, Calif. (KERO) — Nearly 800 people filled the Nile Theater Friday night as New York Democratic Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez made her way to Bakersfield to rally support for Democratic candidate Randy Villegas… -
AOC, Newsom, Jeffries swing through California to help Democrats in tight racesBAKERSFIELD — Top Democratic and Republican leaders are sweeping through California as the Nov. 3 election approaches, evidence of the state’s pivotal role in deciding which party will control the U.S. House of Representatives and the fate… -
School board attacks on Villegas proven to be misleadingVillegas did not make the decision and there was no public record of the individual’s conduct. A new attack ad uses misleading claims to suggest Randy Villegas voted to let a sexual predator work in a Visalia, California school. The… -
2026 midterm elections: 21 key House races to followKamau Marshall, consultant and chief strategist speaks with LiveNOW's Ryan Schmelz on how the Democrats are looking to take back control of Congress. Control of the U.S. House will be on the line in November, with Republicans defending… -
GOP Congressman in California Swing-District Race Defends Vote for Medicaid CutsThis article by Jackie Fortiér first appeared in KFF Health News, republished with permission. BAKERSFIELD, Calif. — Ulises Hernandez has had health coverage through Medicaid for as long as he can remember. But he had never waited as long… -
Becerra, Villegas campaign in Bakersfield as Election Day nearsby Michelle Roldan, Eyewitness News BAKERSFIELD, Calif.(KBAK/KBFX) — With Election Day approaching, candidates up and down the ballot are making their final pitch to voters in Bakersfield, where immigration enforcement and health care… -
'I'm livid': Medicaid patient who went through ER nightmare has message for GOP lawmakerA Medicaid patient from Bakersfield, California, is blasting Republican Rep. David Valadao over the Medicaid cuts in the GOP’s tax law, KFF Health News reported in a story carried by NPR. Ulises Hernandez, 41, who has been on Medicaid his…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions