Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
28.68%median
14%34%
Median 28.68%Middle half 26.33% – 31.08%
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CA-13 House election: Kevin Lincoln vote percent
The odds
42.45%median
30%52%
Median 42.45%Middle half 39.71% – 45.19%
How the odds have moved
Median: 41.14% on Oct 19, 42.45% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 32% | 97% | 95¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | ||
| At least 34% | 97% | 94¢ | $1.03 | 20.00 | ||
| At least 36% | 94% | 91¢ | 97¢ | $1.03 | 10.00 | |
| At least 38% | 87% | 82¢ | 92¢ | $1.09 | 5.00 | |
| At least 40% | 73% | 69¢ | 77¢ | $1.30 | 14.00 | |
| At least 42% | 55% | ▲ 1 | 50¢ | 59¢ | $1.69 | 22.00 |
| At least 44% | 35% | ▲ 1 | 30¢ | 39¢ | $2.56 | 105 |
| At least 46% | 19% | ▲ 1 | 14¢ | 23¢ | $4.35 | |
| At least 48% | 8% | ▲ 1 | 3¢ | 12¢ | $8.33 | 1.2K |
| At least 50% | 4% | 7¢ | $14.29 | 1.6K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: CA- House, Kevin Lincoln
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House Speaker Mike Johnson campaigns for Kevin Lincoln in competitive Central Valley congressional raceOctober 21, 2026 / 10:36 PM PDT / CBS Sacramento House Speaker Mike Johnson traveled to Stockton on Wednesday to campaign for Republican Kevin Lincoln, stepping up GOP efforts to reclaim California's 13th Congressional District less than… -
Politics Focus | Big media can’t get enough of Adam Gray v. Kevin Lincoln House 13 raceNonprofit, nonpartisan news for the Valley Big shoutout to all of you who came to our VotingMatters event last week. If you missed the invigorating discussion (and free tacos), here are a couple of things I said about local ballot measures… -
WATCH | Rep. Adam Gray discusses local and foreign issues after GOP opponent Kevin Lincoln declines debateNonprofit, nonpartisan news for the Valley In 25 minutes, viewers can learn what Democratic Rep. Adam Gray thinks about ICE detentions in the Valley, high-speed rail in Merced, suffering in Palestine and Israel, and the war in Iran. They… -
Thursday evening Northern California weather forecast - October 22, 2026CBS News Thursday evening Northern California weather forecast - October 22, 2026 Proposed billionaire wealth tax nearly drove Mark Zuckerberg out of California, Meta says Cal Fire says it's "a long ways out" before fire season is over… -
UOP law students break down California ballot measures to help votersCBS News UOP law students break down California ballot measures to help voters Sacramento’s Lavender Heights businesses form alliance over parking rates, public safety concerns House Speaker Mike Johnson campaigns in Stockton for GOP… -
Republicans are spending millions to oust a Democrat who won by 187 votes. Should he worry?This story was originally published by CalMatters. Democratic Rep. Adam Gray knows all too well that every vote makes a difference. This year Gray will likely benefit from the blue wave that polls show is sweeping the nation, as well as… -
A California Town Swung Heavily for Trump. Is It Swinging Back?High prices and an immigration crackdown hit hard in the little Central Valley city of Livingston. On a sunny September afternoon, Juan Carlos stands behind the counter of his compact variety shop in California’s Central Valley, notes the… -
Adam Gray’s California Coalition Is Cracking As Former Backers Rally Behind His GOP ChallengerCalifornia’s 13th Congressional District is shaping up to be a battleground this November as Republican Kevin Lincoln, the former mayor of Stockton, businessman, and pastor, is challenging incumbent Democrat Rep. Adam Gray. While polling… - California gas prices have long plagued Democratic candidates. This year is differentIn California, gas prices remain the highest in the nation. And pain at the pump has been a hot topic in the state's most competitive races for Congress. The issue has long favored California's Republicans. But the war in Iran has given…
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Opponent of One Big Beautiful Bill seeks reelection in HouseThe Black Chronicle (The Center Square) – U.S. Rep. Adam Gray, D-Merced, Calif., who opposed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, is running for reelection on Nov. 3 against former Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln II, a Republican. Gray […]… -
These wildly different Central Valley candidates could hold a lesson for DemocratsRep. Adam Gray, left, and Randy Villegas, a candidate for Congress, are both Central Valley Democrats, but are running wildly different campaigns. In two critical Central Valley swing districts, the Democratic candidates are betting on…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions