Predictions › Politics › Trump administration
Not enough history yet.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
No recent headlines name this market's subject.
October 31 14% ▼ 5 November 30 55% ▼ 6 December 31 77% ▼ 4
Transgender 5+ times >99% ▲ 22 SI / Super Intelligence >99% ▲ 34 Star >99% ▲ 59 19 more Gay / Palestine >99% ▲ 79 Biden / Kamala / Obama 10+ times >99% ▲ 13 Regulation / Regulatory 100% ▲ 72 Ass 1% ▼ 65 Bull / Bullshit 1% ▼ 41 Fertilizer / Rural 1% ▼ 65 Animal 1% ▼ 63 Drag Show 1% ▼ 63 Maduro 1% ▼ 26 Data Center / Electric / Electricity 1% ▼ 38 Russia / Ukraine 1% ▼ 71 Hormuz / Blockade 1% ▼ 58 Fentanyl / Deport / Deported 1% ▼ 30 America First / Gulf of America 1% ▼ 62 Hell 15+ times <1% ▼ 54 Tax 33+ times <1% ▼ 45 AI / Artificial Intelligence <1% ▼ 44 Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency <1% ▼ 2 -No Qualifying Event- <1% ▼ 3 Vladimir Putin 86% ▼ 1 Mohammed bin Salman 78% ▼ 2 Kim Jong Un 16% ▼ 14 11 more Aleksandr Lukashenko 11% ▼ 3 Changpeng Zhao 11% King Mohammed VI 9% ▼ 3 iShowSpeed 7% ▲ 4 Lai Ching-te 7% ▲ 3 Pope Leo XIV 5% MrBeast 5% Nick Fuentes 3% Yoon Suk Yeol 3% Nicolás Maduro 2% Jair Bolsonaro 2% ▼ 1
38.55% 39.25%
Median 38.85% Middle half 38.76% – 39.04%
Anna Kelly 14% ▼ 1 Scott Jennings 14% ▼ 1 Elizabeth Pipko 6% ▲ 1 57 more Alina Habba 3% Danielle Alvarez 3% Margo Martin 3% Steven Cheung 2% Kari Lake 2% ▼ 1 No new person 2% ▲ 1 Roma Daravi 2% Laura Loomer 2% ▲ 1 Monica Crowley 2% ▲ 1 Tricia McLaughlin 2% Maria Bartiromo 2% Karoline Leavitt 2% Jason Miller 1% Sage Steele 1% Tucker Carlson 1% Liz Huston 1% Natalie Harp 1% Rachel Campos-Duffy 1% ▼ 1 Spencer Pratt 1% Lara Trump 1% Jayme Franklin 1% Erika Kirk 1% Matthew Boyle 1% Taylor Budowich 1% Katie Miller 1% ▼ 1 Kush Desai 1% Ari Fleischer 1% Benny Johnson 1% Matt Walsh 1% Ben Shapiro 1% Jack Posobiec 1% Mike Cernovich 1% Dan Bongino 1% Kayleigh McEnany 1% Harrison Fields 1% Taylor Rogers 1% ▼ 1 Hogan Gidley 1% Katie Pavlich 1% ▼ 1 Lauren Bis 1% Pat Adams 1% Kaelan Dorr 1% Vanessa Broussard 1% Cara Castronuova 1% Mark Levin 1% Logan Paul 1% Jake Paul 1% Eric Daugherty 1% Ben Ferguson 1% Erin Elmore Scavino 1% ▼ 1 Tulsi Gabbard 1% Beni Rae Harmony 1% Peter Doocy 1% Sean Spicer 1% Marco Rubio 1% Kat Timpf 1% Kaylee McGhee White 1% George Santos 1% Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Settles on the United States Congress, the Executive Branch, The New York Times
Trading closes Jan 1, 2027 10:00 AM ET
Traded $2.1K (61,207 contracts)
This week $2.1K
At stake $743
Followed here since Oct 19, 2026
The rules If the federal government (or an entity of it) announces that it will begin to, or has begun, bitcoin mining operations before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi .
A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.
For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.
Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use .