Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
5%chance▼ 1
Install
Will Trump try to leave the USMCA? (Before 2029)
The odds
13%Before 2027
- Before 202713%▼ 1
How the odds have moved
Before 2027: 16% on Oct 20, 13% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
The news: USMCA
Search ›-
USMCA is good deal for agricultureMinnesota’s ag commissioner says he’s optimistic the U.S., Canada and Mexico can find a way to strengthen its trading relationship and renew a long-term trade agreement.Thom Petersen says the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement is a good deal… -
Daily Memo: Don’t Tune Out For Summer Yet, USMCA Talks Are ComingJust when commercial aerospace executives thought it was safe to start planning their summer vacations, here comes Nafta negotiations again. Daily Memo: Don’t Tune Out For Summer Yet, USMCA Talks Are Coming Based in Washington, Michael… -
U.S.-Mexico trade talks reportedly stall over auto tariffs, raising concerns for USMCAU.S. trade negotiations with Mexico have reportedly stalled amid disagreements over tariffs on auto imports and steel and aluminum, raising further uncertainty about the future of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). The… -
USMCA Update - U.S. Trade Representative Discusses Canada with Glenn BeckGlenn Beck interviewed U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer last week. Within the interview USTR Greer walks through some of the current geopolitical issues surrounding trade and MAGAnomics beginning with Iran, oil and gas prices, the… -
Mexico Negotiations Stall Following Canada Breakdown, Calling Into Question the Future of USMCATrade negotiations between the United States and Mexico have reached an impasse after months of talks between officials about a deal to reduce duties on critical imports from beyond the southern border. Objections from U.S. Commerce… -
Déjà Vu? U.S.-Mexico Trade Talks Stall on Tariffs, Echoing Canada Dispute as USMCA Review NearsCALGARY, ALBERTA (RFD-TV) — U.S.-Mexico trade negotiations have stalled over tariffs on automobiles, steel and aluminum, adding uncertainty to North American trade relations and raising questions about potential effects on American… -
DOL Seeks To Extend USMCA Wage Records CollectionLaw360 DOL Seeks To Extend USMCA Wage Records Collection By Benjamin Morse · October 15, 2026, 2:03 PM EDT Get instant access to the one-stop news source for business lawyers Email (NOTE: Free email domains not supported) Password (at… -
Automakers, suppliers stuck in USMCA limbo as Trump weighs more tariffsAutomotive News Automakers, suppliers stuck in USMCA limbo as Trump weighs more tariffs Automakers expressed increased confidence in the industry in the third quarter, but dealers and suppliers were less upbeat. -
AXN Automotive Systems earns USMCA Certification for Louisville-built axlesAXN Automotive Systems, a member of global mobility leader Randoncorp, has received United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) certification for axle products made at its Louisville, Ky., facility, marking a significant milestone in the… -
Mexico acknowledges lack of agreement with US on tariffs, though confirms USMCA remains in effect-Yieh Corp Steel News16 Oct 2026 10:20 reported by Raul Lee US probes EU's CBAM over potential trade barriers Pakistan maintains AD duties on Chinese cold-rolled steel coils and sheets China reduces VAT export rebate rate for new energy vehicles US announces… -
USTR Seeks Comments on the Operation of the USMCA Ahead of the 2027 Joint ReviewSBA Office of Advocacy - A voice for small businesses and entities. What: On October 5, 2026, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) published a request for comments and notice of a public hearing on the operation of the United… -
US trade commission hears testimony on USMCA rules of origin | MLex | Specialist news and analysis on legal risk and regulationUS trade commission hears testimony on USMCA rules of origin MLex US trade commission hears testimony on USMCA rules of origin Prepare for tomorrow’s regulatory change, today MLex identifies risk to business wherever it emerges, with…
Related markets
All trump administration ›Trump out as President before 2027?
4%chance▼ 1
Next Press Secretary announced by...?
Dec 20, 2027even chance by
- October 317%▼ 1
- November 3033%▼ 8
- December 3160%▼ 3
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 16 - October 23, 2026?
209.0median
40219
Median 209.0Middle half 203.9 – 214.0
Next Press Secretary?
16%Anna Kelly
- Anna Kelly16%
- Scott Jennings11%▼ 1
- Kari Lake8%▲ 3
28 more
- Katie Miller6%
- Elizabeth Pipko5%
- Maria Bartiromo5%
- Alina Habba4%▲ 1
- Kayleigh McEnany4%
- Monica Crowley4%▲ 2
- Margo Martin3%
- Beni Rae Harmony3%▼ 1
- Lauren Bis3%
- Harrison Fields3%▼ 1
- Natalie Harp3%
- Taylor Rogers2%
- Katie Pavlich2%
- Tricia McLaughlin2%
- Steven Cheung2%
- Laura Loomer2%
- Lara Trump2%
- Karoline Leavitt2%
- Liz Huston1%
- Rachel Campos-Duffy1%
- Hogan Gidley1%
- Kush Desai1%
- Pat Adams1%
- Kaelan Dorr1%
- Ari Fleischer1%
- Spencer Pratt1%
- Matthew Boyle<1%
- Jake Paul<1%
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?
84%Vladimir Putin
- Vladimir Putin84%▼ 1
- Mohammed bin Salman67%▼ 4
- Kim Jong Un20%▲ 7
11 more
- Aleksandr Lukashenko13%▲ 4
- Changpeng Zhao7%▼ 4
- King Mohammed VI6%
- MrBeast4%
- Pope Leo XIV4%
- Lai Ching-te4%
- Nick Fuentes4%
- iShowSpeed3%
- Yoon Suk Yeol3%
- Nicolás Maduro2%
- Jair Bolsonaro2%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.