Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
4%December 31
- October 31<1%
- December 314%
Install
Number of US data centers in 2026?
The odds
5,185median
5,0006,100
Median 5,185Middle half 5,109 – 5,550
How the odds have moved
Median: 5,064 on Oct 20, 5,185 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ At least 4,800 | 99% | ▲ 14 | $1.01 | 13.9K | ||
| ✓ At least 4,900 | 99% | ▲ 27 | $1.01 | 4.9K | ||
| ✓ At least 5,000 | 99% | ▲ 42 | $1.01 | 1.6K | ||
| At least 5,100 | 78% | 80¢ | 97¢ | $1.03 | 342 | |
| At least 5,200 | 45% | 41¢ | 49¢ | $2.04 | 3.4K | |
| At least 5,300 | 35% | 31¢ | 39¢ | $2.56 | 787 | |
| At least 5,400 | 30% | 26¢ | 33¢ | $3.03 | 89.00 | |
| At least 5,500 | 26% | 23¢ | 29¢ | $3.45 | 155 | |
| At least 5,600 | 24% | 20¢ | 28¢ | $3.57 | ||
| At least 5,700 | 19% | 15¢ | 23¢ | $4.35 | ||
| At least 5,800 | 16% | 12¢ | 20¢ | $5.00 | ||
| At least 5,900 | 12% | 8¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 | ||
| At least 6,000 | 9% | 5¢ | 13¢ | $7.69 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news
No recent headlines name this market's subject.
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20.01%median
15.2%22.8%
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OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?
Nov 13, 2027even chance by
- December 31, 202614%▼ 2
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Which company has the best AI model end of October?
90%Google
- Google90%
- Anthropic8%▲ 1
- OpenAI1%
18 more
- Meta<1%
- Moonshot<1%
- Alibaba<1%
- Baidu<1%
- Z.ai<1%
- Xiaomi<1%
- SpaceXAI<1%
- DeepSeek<1%
- Amazon<1%
- ByteDance<1%
- Nvidia<1%
- Thinky<1%
- MiniMax<1%
- Mistral<1%
- Meituan<1%
- Tencent<1%
- StepFun<1%
- Microsoft<1%
Next Claude Haiku Model (4.6+): Text Arena Debut?
1,410median
1,3801,480
Median 1,410Middle half 1,405 – 1,415
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?
64%No release by October 31
- No release by October 3164%▼ 9
- October 2721%▲ 8
- October 295%▼ 1
11 more
- October 264%▲ 1
- October 283%▼ 1
- October 311%▲ 1
- October 301%
- October 201%▼ 12
- October 251%
- October 19<1%▼ 2
- October 21<1%▼ 5
- October 22<1%▼ 14
- October 23<1%▼ 4
- October 24<1%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.