Fed Decision in October?
94%No change
- No change94%
- 25 bps increase5%
- 50+ bps increase<1%
2 more
- 25 bps decrease<1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Install
Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Oct 25, 2026
The odds
58,083median
55,50065,000
Median 58,083Middle half 57,511 – 58,917
How the odds have moved
Not enough history yet.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 56,000 MW | 98% | 96¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | ||
| Above 56,500 MW | 97% | 96¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | ||
| Above 57,000 MW | 96% | 93¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | ||
| Above 57,500 MW | 76% | 72¢ | 79¢ | $1.27 | 1.00 | |
| Above 58,000 MW | 53% | 52¢ | 53¢ | $1.89 | ||
| Above 59,000 MW | 23% | 18¢ | 27¢ | $3.70 | ||
| Above 59,500 MW | 20% | 14¢ | 23¢ | $4.35 | ||
| Above 60,500 MW | 20% | 4¢ | 21¢ | $4.76 | 1.00 | |
| Above 62,500 MW | 6% | 2¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | ||
| Above 63,000 MW | 3% | 2¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | ||
| Above 63,500 MW | 3% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | ||
| Above 64,000 MW | 3% | 1¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | ||
| Above 64,500 MW | 3% | 8¢ | $12.50 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Texas ERCOT
Search ›-
Bloom Energy says solid oxide fuel cells can close the gap between surging U.S. data center power demand and slow grid expansion timelinesU.S. electricity demand is growing faster than the grid can keep up. According to McKinsey & Company, American IT load is expected to nearly double — from roughly 80 GW in 2025 to 150 GW by 2028 — driven largely by AI data center… - Windtech International - Wind generation in the USA forecast to grow through 2027Solar generation is forecast to grow more rapidly, increasing by 20.82% in 2026 and by 18.08% in 2027. Utility-scale solar generation increased by 33.79% in 2025 compared with 2024. Solar is forecast to account for 8.11% of US electricity…
-
Solar PPA Prices Rise 6% YoY in North America, Fall 4% in EuropeNorth American solar PPA prices increased 4.9% QoQ, while European prices rose 0.4% Solar power purchase agreement (PPA) prices in North America increased 6% year-over-year (YoY) in the third quarter (Q3) of 2026, while prices in Europe… -
‘Business as Usual’: Despite Governor’s Directive, TCEQ Continues Processing and Issuing Data Center PermitsEvery day, Big Banks, Big Tech, and their armies of corporate lobbyists threaten our economy, our financial security, and our democracy – sacrificing Main Street Americans and our families on the altar of corporate profits. Public Citizen… -
Texas Grid Meets Record Power Demand as Clean Energy Gains GroundTexas' electricity grid weathered a record-breaking summer as renewable energy supplied a growing share of power, according to a new analysis from the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) examining hourly electricity generation data. The… -
Report Questions Texas Compliance with Abbott's Data Center Permit PauseA new review by FracTracker Alliance and Public Citizens found that the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality continued processing permits and authorizations tied to data center development after Governor Greg Abbott (R) ordered a… -
Goldman Sachs warns power delays may hinder AI data center growthEstefano Gomez is an editor at Crypto Briefing specializing in blockchain analysis, DeFi, and the intersection of crypto and digital art. He previously served as Editor in Chief at Interesante for over three years, where he covered…
Related markets
All economy ›Fed Decision in December?
76%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase76%▲ 3
- No change20%▼ 1
- 50+ bps increase2%▼ 1
2 more
- 25 bps decrease1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Texas crude oil production in 2026
5.76median
5.506
Median 5.76Middle half 5.73 – 5.80
Number of rate cuts in 2026?
0.04median
-0.5020.5
Median 0.04Middle half -0.23 – 0.31
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
73%Hike–Pause–Hike
- Hike–Pause–Hike73%▼ 2
- Hike–Pause–Pause21%
- Hike–Hike–Hike3%▼ 1
2 more
- Hike–Hike–Pause2%▲ 1
- Other1%
How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
16%Below 4.00%
3.9%4.55%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions