Fed Decision in October?
94%No change
- No change94%▼ 1
- 25 bps increase5%▲ 1
- 50+ bps increase<1%
2 more
- 25 bps decrease<1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Install
Texas crude oil production in 2026
The odds
5.76median
5.506
Median 5.76Middle half 5.73 – 5.80
How the odds have moved
Median: 5.77 on Oct 20, 5.76 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 5.6 million barrels/day | 99% | 98¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 54.4K | |
| Above 5.7 million barrels/day | 98% | 97¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | 182.0K | |
| Above 5.8 million barrels/day | 23% | 22¢ | 23¢ | $4.35 | 73.3K | |
| Above 5.9 million barrels/day | 4% | 3¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | 61.4K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: oil prices, crude oil, OPEC
Search ›-
FPIs withdraw ₹48,056 cr from equities in October so far amid elevated crude oil pricesPublished - October 25, 2026 01:56 pm IST - New Delhi Foreign investors have withdrawn ₹48,056 crore from Indian equities in October so far, amid elevated crude oil prices, escalating West Asia tensions, concerns over inflation and weak… -
Benchmark indices snap two-week winning streak amid rising crude oil pricesMumbai: Benchmark domestic indices snapped their two-week rising streak dragged by higher crude oil prices due to escalating West Asia conflict. During the holiday-shortened week, the 30-share Sensex at the Bombay Stock Exchange declined 1… -
Global crude oil prices hit six-month high on Middle East conflict, fears of US strikes on IranSaturday October 24, 2026 Global crude oil prices surged to a six-month high as investor anxieties mounted over potential US military strikes against Iran in the coming weeks alongside escalating regional conflict in the Middle East. Brent… -
Crude oil price forecast as Brent hits $117 amid US-Iran war fearsBuy Brent exposure (e.g., Brent crude futures or an ETF like BNO). The article points to a likely escalation targeting Iran’s oil export lifeline (Kharg Island) plus Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption—classic supply shock drivers… -
Trump's Iran showdown rattles Wall Street as oil prices spikeFox Business Trump's Iran showdown rattles Wall Street as oil prices spike President Donald Trump rules out Iran negotiations as stocks fall, oil prices surge and Wall Street weighs growing Middle East tensions. Rising crude oil prices and… -
Rupee Rises 3 Paise To 94.78 Against US Dollar In Early Trade, High Crude Oil Prices And FII Outflows Limit GainsMumbai: The Indian rupee appreciated marginally by 3 paise to 94.78 against the US dollar in early trade on Friday, October 23, as the domestic currency remained under pressure from elevated crude oil prices and continued foreign… - Goldman Sachs Says Refiners See 'High Probability' Of Sharp Oil Supply Drop As Houthi Attacks Escalate — Crude Oil Prices Hit 6-Month HighCrude oil prices have climbed to a six-month high as escalating attacks and rising tensions in the Middle East add to concerns about energy supply disruptions. The latest escalation comes as fighting involving the Iran-aligned Houthis and…
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Crude Oil Price Today: Brent Crosses $113 As Saudi Supply Risks, Libya Disruption Stoke ConcernsBrent crude futures rose on Friday, extending gains after surging 4% to a five-month high in the previous session, as concerns over potential supply disruptions intensified following Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and an outage at an oil… -
BPCL Profit Falls 22.5% Amid Crude Oil VolatilityUnique Times Magazine BPCL Profit Falls 22.5% Amid Crude Oil Volatility India’s Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL), the country’s third-largest refiner by capacity, reported a 22.5% decline in standalone net profit for the second… - Oil prices hit five-month high and Dow falls 700 points over fears of Iran strikes, AI spendingStocks fell Friday as oil prices hit a five-month high over fears of escalations in the Middle East and traders remained concerned that tech companies might be overspending on AI. The Nasdaq traded roughly flat after suffering its worst…
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Rubio turns to small Indian town as US faces high oil pricesThe western Indian port town of Jamnagar is not a usual stop for foreign leaders, yet it featured prominently in US Secretary of State Marco Rubio's recent visit. So, why did Rubio visit the town? And, more importantly, why did he skip the… -
Record Tanker Rates Cripple U.S. Crude Oil Flows to AsiaU.S. Dips Into Strategic Oil Reserve Again Amid Supply Disruptions UT Austin researchers say desalinated… Houthi strikes on Saudi oil… Aramco warns the global oil… The Iran war has made oil tanker voyages so inefficient that vessel…
Related markets
All economy ›Fed Decision in December?
76%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase76%▼ 1
- No change20%▲ 1
- 50+ bps increase3%
2 more
- 50+ bps decrease1%
- 25 bps decrease1%
Wisconsin corn yield in 2026
182.6median
160200
Median 182.6Middle half 178.1 – 187.9
30Y US Treasury yield on Dec 31, 2027?
5.74%median
1.74%8.24%
Median 5.74%Middle half 3.35% – 7.22%
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
96%0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps)96%▼ 1
- 1 (25 bps)1%
- 2 (50 bps)<1%
10 more
- 3 (75 bps)<1%
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
- 5 (125 bps)<1%
- 6 (150 bps)<1%
- 7 (175 bps)<1%
- 8 (200 bps)<1%
- 9 (225 bps)<1%
- 10 (250 bps)<1%
- 11 (275 bps)<1%
- 12+ (300+ bps)<1%
US recession by end of 2026?
9%chance▲ 1
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions