Texas Senate winner? (2026)
65%James Talarico
- James Talarico65%▲ 1
- Ken Paxton36%
Install
Texas: Abbott's margin vs. Paxton's margin? (Nov 3, 2026)
The odds
5.32median
-20015.0
Median 5.32Middle half 3.44 – 7.47
How the odds have moved
Median: 6.25 on Oct 20, 5.32 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paxton by 3+ | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 1.0K | ||
| Paxton by 0-3 | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 1.3K | |
| Abbott by 0-3 | 16% | ▲ 1 | 12¢ | 19¢ | $5.26 | 1.7K |
| Abbott by 3-6 | 40% | ▲ 1 | 34¢ | 41¢ | $2.44 | 1.4K |
| Abbott by 6-9 | 32% | 28¢ | 33¢ | $3.03 | 4.4K | |
| Abbott by 9-12 | 4% | ▲ 1 | 1¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | 1.5K |
| Abbott by 12+ | 4% | ▲ 1 | 1¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | 1.0K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Texas, Abbott, Paxton
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WATCH LIVE: Texas AG Ken Paxton holds campaign event in Selma, TexasTexas Attorney General Ken Paxton rallies supporters during a "Come and Take It" campaign tour stop in Selma, Texas. WATCH LIVE: Texas AG Ken Paxton holds campaign event in Selma, Texas Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton rallies supporters… -
Talarico is trying to deceive the voters of Texas: Ken PaxtonTexas GOP U.S. Senate nominee Ken Paxton discusses his upcoming race against Democrat James Talarico on 'Hannity.' ... Talarico is trying to deceive the voters of Texas: Ken Paxton Texas GOP U.S. Senate nominee Ken Paxton discusses his… -
Ken Paxton blasts James Talarico as 'radical Democrat' during Texas campaign stopTexas Attorney General Ken Paxton criticized Democratic U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico during a campaign stop, accusing him of supporting socialist policies. Ken Paxton blasts James Talarico as 'radical Democrat' during Texas… -
Poll shows Talarico leading Paxton in Texas Senate race, CBS News political analysts weigh inCBS News Executive Director of Elections and Surveys, Anthony Salvanto, and CBS News Senior White House and Political Correspondent Ed O'Keefe discuss their main takeaways from polls showing Democratic candidate James Talarico in the lead… -
Fear and hope in Texas: Paxton vs. Talarico in an expensive US Senate showdownBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. AUSTIN, Texas —… -
A Democratic win in Texas is a long shot – but Ken Paxton’s weakness is obviousRepublicans are resorting to childish taunts to defend an uncommonly dishonorable state attorney general It’s a bit like Lucy with the football. Every few years, Democrats convince themselves that a Texas Senate seat might finally switch… -
Major Ken Paxton Donor Endorses James Talarico in TexasOct 22, 2026 at 04:04 AM EDT A major donor to Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton has announced his support for Democratic opponent James Talarico in the closely watched U.S. Senate race in Texas. “I'm Thomas J. Henry. I'm here to… -
October Poll: In Texas General Election, Talarico Leads Paxton by Four Points; Abbott Leads Hinojosa by Three PointsThis is the third and final release in a series of monthly tracking polls that TPOR has released ahead of the November 3 election. Note: For this tracking poll, topline results reflect final push tallies, which we introduced for the final… -
Greg Abbott warns Democrat victory in Texas could spell disaster for Republicans’ White House hopes… as James Talarico pulls ahead of Ken Paxton in pollsBy VICTOR HELLER, US REPORTER Texas governor Greg Abbott has issued a warning for Republicans that the outcome of the Lone Star state's heated Senate race could lead to a disaster in 2028. Speaking to conservative radio host Sean Hannity… -
Abbott, Paxton to rally voters in Abilene as election nearsThe 2026 Election is getting down to the nitty-gritty with candidates and their surrogates still kicking the dust up on the campaign trail. Early voting ends Friday, Oct. 30, with Election Day the following Tuesday, Nov. 3. On Saturday… -
The Bush dynasty breaks with Ken Paxton in Texas. What could it mean for the Senate?CNN The Bush dynasty breaks with Ken Paxton in Texas. What could it mean for the Senate? CNN's Audie Cornish is joined by former George W. Bush adviser Mark McKinnon to talk about members of the Bush dynasty breaking away from Texas GOP… -
Talarico, Paxton in dead heat for Texas Senate, Abbott leads governor’s race: Poll(The Hill) — Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton are in a dead heat for the Senate in Texas, according to new polling of one of the cycle’s most closely watched contests. Talarico notched 48 percent to Paxton’s 46 percent in…
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