US recession by end of 2026?
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Who will be the three wealthiest people in the world? (Dec 31, 2026)
The odds
93%Jeff Bezos
- Jeff Bezos93%
- Larry Page86%▼ 1
- Elon Musk77%▼ 22
- Sergey Brin22%
- Mark Zuckerberg14%▼ 1
- Jensen Huang6%
- Larry Ellison5%▲ 1
- Warren Buffett3%
- Steve Ballmer3%
How the odds have moved
Jeff Bezos: 91% on Oct 20, 93% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 21, 5 PM ETJeff Bezos: 87% → 93%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Bezos | 93% | 92¢ | 93¢ | $1.08 | 5.1K | |
| Larry Page | 86% | ▼ 1 | 85¢ | 87¢ | $1.15 | 13.3K |
| Elon Musk | 77% | ▼ 22 | 77¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 10.7K |
| Sergey Brin | 22% | 21¢ | 22¢ | $4.55 | 1.6K | |
| Mark Zuckerberg | 14% | ▼ 1 | 11¢ | 17¢ | $5.88 | 6.1K |
| Jensen Huang | 6% | 3¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | 4.8K | |
| Larry Ellison | 5% | ▲ 1 | 1¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | 4.2K |
| Warren Buffett | 3% | 32¢ | $3.13 | 1.3K | ||
| Steve Ballmer | 3% | 1¢ | 27¢ | $3.70 | 158 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Jeff Bezos, Larry Page, Elon Musk
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Elon Musk’s SpaceX and Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin will face off in orbit next year, NASA confirms. ‘As a rocket nerd, it’s going to be pretty awesome’NASA is moving fast on its plans to build a moon base and return astronauts to the lunar surface in as little as two years. Administrator Jared Isaacman said Friday that the space agency is still on track to launch Artemis III next summer… -
Elon Musk Says Ukraine Violated Starlink TermsOct 24, 2026 at 05:30 PM EDT Amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, Elon Musk said Kyiv violated the terms of SpaceX’s commercial Starlink service by using it for offensive drone strikes, as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said… -
Democrat James Talarico targets Elon Musk at rally: ‘Texas is not for sale’The Senate candidate denounced opponent Ken Paxton, calling out corruption allegations and support from Musk James Talarico, the Democratic candidate for the US Senate in Texas, has taken aim at Elon Musk, warning that the tech mogul is… -
Trump praises Elon Musk as a 'genius' while defending him against potential Democratic probesPresident Donald Trump told FOX Business that Americans have an "obligation to protect our geniuses," defending Elon Musk as a "brilliant guy" when asked whether Democrats could target the billionaire if they win control of Congress… -
Elon Musk’s dangerous grip on outer spaceAs SpaceX throttles Ukraine’s Starshield, experts warn that Elon Musk’s de facto monopoly over launch and satellite tech poses a major threat to global security. The finger-pointing is of little interest to Ukrainians, who are focused on… -
Ukraine Starlink slowdown raises business risks for Elon Musk partnersNow The Wall Street Journal is reporting, "some U.S. officials say that Musk acted unilaterally and that Trump didn't specifically order any retribution against Ukraine," quoting anonymous sources. This is despite his assurance last year… -
How Elon Musk's Starlink and Starshield are shaping the war in UkraineElon Musk's Starlink and Starshield satellite networks play different roles in Ukraine's fight against Russia. Here's how the two systems work, how they're used on the battlefield and why Ukraine's reliance on them could be a… -
Elon Musk Just Dumped Another $76 Million Into the MidtermsElon Musk gave his personal political committee, America PAC, more than $76 million in the first two weeks of October to boost Republicans in the final stretch of the midterms, according to a pre-election report the PAC filed Thursday… -
SpaceX Filing Gives Elon Musk the Final Word on Tesla Merger He Says He’s Staying Out OfElon Musk recused himself from the SpaceX-Tesla merger talks. His company’s SEC filing suggests that doesn’t mean much. SpaceX’s October 22 10-Q disclosed that any potential combination with Tesla “would be subject to further approval by… -
Texas Senate race: Talarico campaign turns its fire on Elon MuskJames Talarico's campaign hit back at Elon Musk Thursday, calling the 2026 election cycle's top spender out for his cash infusion in the Texas Senate race amid an ongoing feud between the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Texas and the… -
Elon Musk spends $500K on New York GOP congressman's re-election bidRep. Mike Lawler, R-N.Y., discusses Elon Musk's $500,000 contribution to his re-election effort and the influence of socialist candidates on ‘Hannity.’ Elon Musk spends $500K on New York GOP congressman's re-election bid Rep. Mike Lawler… -
Elon Musk reportedly invests $1bn in David Ellison’s SkydanceMusk’s investment into the new media empire comes after Paramount’s $111bn merger with Warner Bros Discovery Elon Musk has reportedly invested approximately $1bn in Skydance, the new media empire led by David Ellison. The deal comes…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.