Texas Senate winner? (2026)
65%James Talarico
- James Talarico65%
- Ken Paxton36%
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Will James Talarico outperform the polls?
The odds
42%chance
How the odds have moved
Yes: 38% on Oct 20, 42% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 42% | 41¢ | 43¢ | $2.33 | 5.8K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: James Talarico, Texas
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WATCH LIVE: Texas Senate nominee James Talarico holds campaign concert in AustinDemocrat James Talarico speaks to supporters and hosts a "Clear Eyes, Full Hearts" campaign tour concert in Austin, Texas. WATCH LIVE: Texas Senate nominee James Talarico holds campaign concert in Austin Democrat James Talarico speaks to… -
Ken Paxton blasts James Talarico as 'radical Democrat' during Texas campaign stopTexas Attorney General Ken Paxton criticized Democratic U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico during a campaign stop, accusing him of supporting socialist policies. Ken Paxton blasts James Talarico as 'radical Democrat' during Texas… -
WATCH LIVE: Dem Senate nominee James Talarico holds campaign rally in San AntonioTexas Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico speaks at a "Clear Eyes, Full Hearts" campaign rally in San Antonio. WATCH LIVE: Dem Senate nominee James Talarico holds campaign rally in San Antonio Texas Democratic Senate nominee James… -
Democrat James Talarico targets Elon Musk at rally: ‘Texas is not for sale’The Senate candidate denounced opponent Ken Paxton, calling out corruption allegations and support from Musk James Talarico, the Democratic candidate for the US Senate in Texas, has taken aim at Elon Musk, warning that the tech mogul is… -
James Talarico rallies young voters in Austin who are critical to his Senate hopesThe Democrat held a Friday-night rally at the University of Texas at Austin, where multiple students told NBC News they had already voted and worry about the cost of living. AUSTIN, Texas — James Talarico is trying to become the first… -
WATCH LIVE: James Talarico speaks at campaign meet-and-greet in Temple, TXDemocratic U.S. Senate nominee James Talarico speaks with voters during a "Clear Eyes, Full Hearts" campaign tour meet-and-greet in Temple, Texas. WATCH LIVE: James Talarico speaks at campaign meet-and-greet in Temple, TX Democratic U.S… -
WATCH LIVE: Dem Senate nominee James Talarico holds rally in Galveston, TexasDemocratic U.S. Senate nominee James Talarico holds a "Clear Eyes, Full Hearts" campaign rally in Galveston, Texas, to mobilize voters ahead of the midterm election. WATCH LIVE: Dem Senate nominee James Talarico holds rally in Galveston… -
James Talarico digs in with Black voters in pursuit of an elusive Democratic win in TexasWhile Democrats don’t know exactly what a winning Texas coalition looks like, since it’s been 30-plus years since they assembled one, it’s clear that Black voters are critical for Senate candidate James Talarico, whose contest with state… -
Major Ken Paxton Donor Endorses James Talarico in TexasOct 22, 2026 at 04:04 AM EDT A major donor to Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton has announced his support for Democratic opponent James Talarico in the closely watched U.S. Senate race in Texas. “I'm Thomas J. Henry. I'm here to… -
Texas Senate race heats up as James Talarico faces voter scrutinyFox News Texas Senate race heats up as James Talarico faces voter scrutiny Tess Smith and Sarah Gardner join 'Fox & Friends First' to discuss the Texas Senate race between James Talarico and Ken Paxton. Texas voters split in the Senate… -
Texas Southern Students March To Vote With James TalaricoTexas Southern University students brought HBCU homecoming energy straight to the ballot box on Friday, Oct. 23. Texas Southern University students brought HBCU homecoming energy straight to the ballot box on Friday, Oct. 23, as Houston… -
Texas Has Been Democrats’ White Whale. Can James Talarico Finally Catch It This Midterm?For years, Texas has been the Democratic Party’s white whale, an elusive prize that has repeatedly slipped out of reach. With the US midterm elections days away, Democrat James Talarico is giving his party fresh hope of finally turning the…
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- R-House, D-Senate1%
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