Will the S&P finish positive this year? (2026)
91%chance
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Which companies will be added to the S&P 500 in Q4? (Q4 2026)
The odds
98%Twilio
- Twilio98%
- Cheniere Energy30%
- Astera Labs27%
- Okta19%
- Credo Technology13%
- Affirm Holdings12%
- Southern Copper9%
- LPL Financial9%
- ATI9%
- Tradeweb Markets9%
- Rocket Companies9%
- Venture Global9%
23 more
- TPG9%
- Snowflake9%
- Atlassian9%
- Natera9%
- BWX Technologies8%
- Guidewire Software8%
- Talen Energy8%
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals8%
- HEICO7%
- MongoDB7%
- Curtiss-Wright7%
- Toast7%
- Duolingo7%
- Cloudflare7%
- Zoom7%
- SoFi6%
- Circle Internet Group6%
- Roblox6%
- SpaceX6%
- CoreWeave4%
- Medline2%
- Strategy (MicroStrategy)2%
- Cerebras2%
How the odds have moved
Twilio: 98% on Oct 19, 98% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Twilio | 98% | 96¢ | $1.02 | 400 | ||
| Cheniere Energy | 30% | 25¢ | 34¢ | $2.94 | 304 | |
| Astera Labs | 27% | 26¢ | 27¢ | $3.70 | 387 | |
| Okta | 19% | 12¢ | $5.26 | 280 | ||
| Credo Technology | 13% | 11¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | 220 | |
| Affirm Holdings | 12% | 8¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | 157 | |
| Southern Copper | 9% | 5¢ | 13¢ | $7.69 | ||
| LPL Financial | 9% | 4¢ | 13¢ | $7.69 | ||
| ATI | 9% | 4¢ | 13¢ | $7.69 | 182 | |
| Tradeweb Markets | 9% | 4¢ | 13¢ | $7.69 | ||
| Rocket Companies | 9% | 4¢ | 13¢ | $7.69 | ||
| Venture Global | 9% | 4¢ | 13¢ | $7.69 | ||
| TPG | 9% | 4¢ | 13¢ | $7.69 | ||
| Snowflake | 9% | 4¢ | 13¢ | $7.69 | ||
| Atlassian | 9% | 4¢ | 13¢ | $7.69 | ||
| Natera | 9% | 4¢ | 13¢ | $7.69 | ||
| BWX Technologies | 8% | 4¢ | 12¢ | $8.33 | ||
| Guidewire Software | 8% | 4¢ | 12¢ | $8.33 | ||
| Talen Energy | 8% | 4¢ | 12¢ | $8.33 | ||
| Alnylam Pharmaceuticals | 8% | 5¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | 104 | |
| HEICO | 7% | 4¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | 150 | |
| MongoDB | 7% | 4¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | 119 | |
| Curtiss-Wright | 7% | 4¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | 3.00 | |
| Toast | 7% | 4¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | 1.00 | |
| Duolingo | 7% | 4¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | ||
| Cloudflare | 7% | 4¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | 531 | |
| Zoom | 7% | 3¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | 33.00 | |
| SoFi | 6% | 2¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | 107 | |
| Circle Internet Group | 6% | 4¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | ||
| Roblox | 6% | 2¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | 201 | |
| SpaceX | 6% | 2¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | 300 | |
| CoreWeave | 4% | 8¢ | $12.50 | |||
| Medline | 2% | 4¢ | $25.00 | |||
| Strategy (MicroStrategy) | 2% | 4¢ | $25.00 | 17.00 | ||
| Cerebras | 2% | 4¢ | $25.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: S&P 500, stocks, Cheniere Energy
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Cheniere Energy Reaches $298.67, Closest to $300 in a YearAs seen on the 24/7 Wall St. homepage on October 23, 2026. Cheniere Energy closed at $298.67, a fresh 52-week high and 0.95% above its early September peak. The $300 handle is now one ordinary session away for the $61.7 billion LNG… -
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Cheniere Energy (LNG) Signs QatarEnergy Deals, Does The Stock Look Fully Valued?Cheniere Energy (LNG) has signed long-term LNG sale and purchase agreements with QatarEnergy, covering 4 million tonnes per year through 2054. This gives investors a fresh anchor for thinking about the stock. Recent trading has been… - Cheniere Energy Boosts LNG Contract Backlog With QatarEnergy DealUnder the agreements, Cheniere's subsidiaries Sabine Pass Liquefaction, LLC and Corpus Christi Liquefaction, LLC will each supply QatarEnergy with 2 mtpa of LNG. The purchases will be made on a free-on-board basis, with pricing tied to the…
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Astera Labs, Inc. $ALAB Stock Purchased by Robeco Institutional Asset Management B.V.Posted by Tristan Rich on Oct 23rd, 2026 Astera Labs stock opened at $257.82 on Friday. The stock has a market cap of $44.73 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 187.13 and a beta of 3.68. The firm has a 50-day moving average of $311.83… -
How much do stocks move after earnings? I measured 12,353 S&P 500 reportsI measured the stock move on the first trading session after every quarterly earnings release by current S&P 500 companies since April 2020: 12,353 reports from 493 companies. The average move was 4.6% and the median 3.3%, about three… -
Two-Thirds of S&P 500 Stocks Rose on Thursday, but the Index Still Fell — Exposing the Risk Hiding in Your PortfolioOn Thursday, October 22, 2026, 337 S&P 500 stocks finished higher. Only 159 declined and 1 was unchanged across 497 tracked constituents. The index still closed lower. Most stocks rose and the benchmark fell, and that mismatch is a risk… -
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Related markets
All indexes ›How high will the Nasdaq-100 price get in 2026?
31,385high with an even chance
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as 31,385.
- Reaches 30,800100%
- Reaches 31,000100%
10Y US Treasury yield on Dec 31, 2027?
5.27%median
1.74%8.24%
Median 5.27%Middle half 4.06% – 6.09%
Nikkei 225: Close Price End of 2026
66,480median
50,00090,000
Median 66,480Middle half 58,153 – 72,755
What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in October 2026?
$776.10high with an even chance
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $776.10 and as low as $749.56.
- Reaches $770>99%
- Reaches $78018%
- Falls to $760>99%
- Falls to $75052%
Already reached: ↑ $780, ↑ $770, ↓ $760, ↑ $770, ↑ $770, ↓ $770
What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December?
48%↑ $8,000
Traders see as low as 7,307.
- Reaches 8,00048%
- Reaches 8,20021%
- Falls to 7,40066%
- Falls to 7,20032%
Already reached: ↑ $7,800, ↑ $7,600, ↑ $7,400, ↓ $6,600, ↓ $6,400
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions