Texas Senate winner? (2026)
65%James Talarico
- James Talarico65%▲ 1
- Ken Paxton36%
Install
Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026?
The odds
27%Texas
- Texas27%▲ 1
- Kansas23%▼ 2
- South Carolina13%
- North Carolina13%▼ 5
- Alaska10%▼ 1
- Mississippi6%
- Iowa3%
- Ohio2%
- Louisiana1%
- Montana<1%
- Florida<1%
- Georgia<1%
4 more
- Michigan<1%
- New Hampshire<1%
- Minnesota<1%
- Virginia<1%
How the odds have moved
Texas: 28% on Oct 20, 27% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | 27% | ▲ 1 | 27¢ | 28¢ | $3.57 | 4.5K |
| Kansas | 23% | ▼ 2 | 23¢ | 24¢ | $4.17 | 4.4K |
| South Carolina | 13% | 13¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | 9.2K | |
| North Carolina | 13% | ▼ 5 | 13¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | 20.5K |
| Alaska | 10% | ▼ 1 | 10¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | 18.5K |
| Mississippi | 6% | 6¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | 14.0K | |
| Iowa | 3% | 3¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | 3.5K | |
| Ohio | 2% | 2¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | 8.5K | |
| Louisiana | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 11.1K | ||
| Montana | <1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 12.3K | ||
| Florida | <1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 6.3K | ||
| Georgia | <1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 20.0K | ||
| Michigan | <1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 14.5K | ||
| New Hampshire | <1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 5.0K | ||
| Minnesota | <1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 6.1K | ||
| Virginia | <1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 4.8K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Reddest, South Carolina
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Protesters removed as Trump rallies behind Darline Graham in South CarolinaPresident Trump threw his support behind Sen. Darline Graham at a South Carolina rally on Wednesday. Plus, candidates in Ohio and Michigan continue to throw jabs as midterm campaigns reach their peak. Weijia Jiang reports. Trump rallies in… -
Protesters disrupt Donald Trump's South Carolina rally – videoThe US president rallied in Clemson, South Carolina, for Republican senator Darline Graham on 21 October. Tension marked the event as several demonstrators were removed and in at least two instances Trump supporters allegedly physically… -
President Trump campaigns in South Carolina as Sen Darline Graham's race narrowsFox News President Trump campaigns in South Carolina as Sen Darline Graham's race narrows Fox News senior White House correspondent Jacqui Heinrich has the latest on President Donald Trump's campaign push and narrowing midterm races across… -
‘Man, I loved that’: Trump cheers South Carolina rally attender who hit protesterPresident was reportedly heckled at least nine times during campaign event for Darline Graham Multiple protesters were removed from Donald Trump’s rally at South Carolina’s Clemson University on Wednesday, including one who was apparently… -
WATCH LIVE: President Trump delivers remarks at a midterm rally in South CarolinaPresident Trump speaks at a midterm election rally in Pendleton, South Carolina, campaigning for Republican Senate candidate Darline Graham as the GOP works to maintain its Senate majority. WATCH LIVE: President Trump delivers remarks at a… -
Sen Darline Graham makes final push in tightening South Carolina raceFox News Sen Darline Graham makes final push in tightening South Carolina race Sen. Darline Graham, R-S.C., joins ‘America Reports’ ahead of President Donald Trump’s South Carolina rally to discuss her tightening race against Annie Andrews… -
MOMENTS AGO: Trump speaks to reporters ahead of South Carolina campaign swingPresident Trump speaks to reporters ahead of a midterm rally in Pendleton, South Carolina, campaigning for Sen. Darline Graham as the GOP works to maintain its Senate majority. MOMENTS AGO: Trump speaks to reporters ahead of South Carolina… -
Trump praises supporter for allegedly punching protester during rally for Darline Graham in South Carolina – as it happenedSend us your questions about immigration and the midterms We’re wrapping up our live coverage of US politics. Here are some of today’s key developments: Minnesota congresswoman Ilhan Omar denied allegations of immigration fraud in a… -
Trump South Carolina rally turns into royal rumble with hecklers getting ‘whacked’ by MAGA supportersPresident Trump was interrupted by at least 12 hecklers — two of whom were assaulted on-camera by outraged rally-goers Wednesday night in South Carolina, with the commander in chief praising an older supporter for beating a protester near… - Fact Check: Did Trump make a strange noise during South Carolina rally?PENDLETON, SOUTH CAROLINA: With the midterm elections just days away, a video circulating on social media platforms claims that President Donald Trump made a strange noise during the rally in South Carolina. The claim has sparked mockery…
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Over 350K early votes cast so far in South CarolinaCOLUMBIA, S.C. (WIS) - Over 350,000 ballots have been cast over the first four days of South Carolina’s early voting period. Data from the South Carolina Election Commission shows 82,886 ballots were cast statewide on Thursday, bringing… -
South Carolina to be awarded $10M by FEMA for Helene recoveryThe federal package was announced Thursday. - On Air Now Playing South Carolina Public Radio – News & Talk - On Air Now Playing South Carolina Public Radio - News & Music South Carolina to be awarded $10M by FEMA for Helene recovery The…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions