Predictions › Elections › Around the world Will a date be announced for another Quebec Referendum before 2029? Kalshi Elections › Around the world Closes Jan 1, 2029 · $828 traded · $54 at stake · prices read 10 h ago
Yes: 23% on Oct 19, 22% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
No recent headlines name this market's subject.
Flávio Bolsonaro 84% ▲ 7 Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 16% ▼ 7 Flávio Bolsonaro <4% 39% ▼ 1 Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8% 38% ▲ 7 Lula da Silva <4% 13% ▼ 6 5 more Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12% 6% ▲ 1 Flávio Bolsonaro 12%+ 2% ▲ 1 Lula da Silva 4-8% <1% Lula da Silva 8-12% <1% Lula da Silva 12%+ <1% Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia 69% ▼ 3 Student List – Students Win 31% ▲ 3 Ivica Dačić – Factor of Stability! <1% 7 more Rasim Ljajić – Humane (SDP – CDP) <1% Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians – Dr Bálint Pásztor <1% Usame Zukorlić Movement for Unification <1% Russian Party – Serbia in BRICS – Slobodan Nikolić <1% Authentic Right – Dr Miloš Jovanović <1% European Serbia – Marinika Tepić, Zdravko Ponoš <1% SDA of Sandžak – Guardians of Sandžak <1% Marine Le Pen 46% Édouard Philippe 16% David Lisnard 14% 42 more Jean-Luc Mélenchon 10% Raphaël Glucksmann 4% François Hollande 2% Bruno Retailleau 1% ▲ 1 Gabriel Attal 1% Jordan Bardella 1% Éric Zemmour 1% Dominique de Villepin 1% Sarah Knafo 1% Christine Lagarde <1% Sébastien Lecornu <1% Xavier Bertrand <1% Marion Maréchal <1% Natacha Polony <1% François Ruffin <1% Marine Tondelier <1% Ségolène Royal <1% François Asselineau <1% Jean Castex <1% Laurent Wauquiez <1% Fabien Roussel <1% Olivier Faure <1% Clémentine Autain <1% Nicolas Dupont-Aignan <1% Michel Barnier <1% Valérie Pécresse <1% François Bayrou <1% Élisabeth Borne <1% Yaël Braun-Pivet <1% Gérald Darmanin <1% Carole Delga <1% Bernard Cazeneuve <1% Manuel Bompard <1% Mathilde Panot <1% Juan Branco <1% Clémence Guetté <1% Karim Bouamrane <1% Lucie Castets <1% Yannick Jadot <1% François Baroin <1% Anasse Kazib <1% Sylvain Durif <1% Flávio Bolsonaro 84% ▲ 8 Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 17% ▼ 8 Yashar 69% ▼ 1 Likud 31% ▲ 1 Together <1% ▼ 1 3 more Shas <1% The Democrats <1% Otzma Yehudit <1% Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Settles on The New York Times
Trading closes Jan 1, 2029 10:00 AM ET
Traded $828 (3,852 contracts)
This week $828
At stake $54
Followed here since Oct 19, 2026
The rules If another Quebec independence referendum has a date announced (either by the Quebec provincial government or the Canadian federal government) before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi .
A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.
For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use .