How many PJM capacity emergency days will there be in 2026?

Kalshi Economy Closes Dec 31 · $76.6K traded · $22.6K at stake · prices read 28 min ago

The odds

16.9median

1035

Median 16.9

How the odds have moved

Median: 17.0 on Oct 20, 16.9 now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
✓ Above 10 days	84%			$1.19	12.8K
✓ Above 12 days	99%			$1.01	28.6K
Above 15 days	70%	69¢	70¢	$1.43	39.6K
Above 20 days	19%	18¢	19¢	$5.26	35.5K
Above 25 days	8%	7¢	8¢	$12.50	30.9K
Above 30 days	7%	6¢	7¢	$14.29	17.2K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news

No recent headlines name this market's subject.

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Fed Decision in October?

95%No change

No change95%▲ 1
25 bps increase5%▼ 2
50+ bps increase<1%

2 more

25 bps decrease<1%
50+ bps decrease<1%

Economy › The Fed

Fed Decision in December?

77%25 bps increase

25 bps increase77%▲ 3
No change20%▼ 2
50+ bps increase3%

2 more

25 bps decrease1%
50+ bps decrease<1%

Economy › The Fed

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

97%0 (0 bps)

0 (0 bps)97%▲ 1
1 (25 bps)1%
2 (50 bps)<1%

10 more

3 (75 bps)<1%
4 (100 bps)<1%
7 (175 bps)<1%
5 (125 bps)<1%
6 (150 bps)<1%
8 (200 bps)<1%
9 (225 bps)<1%
10 (250 bps)<1%
11 (275 bps)<1%
12+ (300+ bps)<1%

Economy

Texas crude oil production in 2026

5.76median

5.506

Median 5.76Middle half 5.73 – 5.80

Economy › The Fed

Number of rate cuts in 2026?

0.04median

-0.5020.5

Median 0.04Middle half -0.23 – 0.31

Economy › The Fed

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

74%Hike–Pause–Hike

Hike–Pause–Hike74%▲ 3
Hike–Pause–Pause21%▼ 1
Hike–Hike–Hike2%▼ 4

2 more

Hike–Hike–Pause2%▲ 2
Other1%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onPJM Interconnection - Emergency Procedures

Trading closesDec 31, 2026 11:58 PM ET

Traded$76.6K (164,544 contracts)

This week$76.6K

At stake$22.6K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the number of calendar days on which an RTO-wide PJM Maximum Generation Emergency/Load Management Alert – Capacity Emergency – NERC EEA 1 was applicable in 2026 is above 10 days, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.