Will Trump declare a national emergency?

Kalshi Politics › Trump administration Closes Mar 31, 2027 · $18 today · $1.5K traded · $1.1K at stake · prices read 3 h ago

The odds

Dec 20, 2026even chance by

Before Nov 1, 202633%
Before Dec 1, 202645%▼ 3
Before Jan 1, 202754%
Before Apr 1, 202754%▼ 2

How the odds have moved

Before Nov 1, 2026: 33% on Oct 20, 33% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Before Oct 1, 2026	7%				$14.29	1.2K
Before Nov 1, 2026	33%		28¢	38¢	$2.63	249
Before Dec 1, 2026	45%	▼ 3	41¢	49¢	$2.04	1.2K
Before Jan 1, 2027	54%		51¢	57¢	$1.75	1.5K
Before Apr 1, 2027	54%	▼ 2	48¢	58¢	$1.72

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Trump

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Tracking Trump: Trump attacks Zelensky; Putin proposes meeting with U.S., China; Trump calls judge a ‘lunatic’; and moreThe Washington Post · 11 h agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Trump escalated his…
Trump launches women's health division within NIH alongside Melania TrumpCBS News · 15 h agoCBS News is a trusted source for the latest in politics, U.S. and world news. The network is home to award-winning broadcasts CBS Mornings, CBS Evening News, 60 Minutes, CBS Sunday Morning, 48 Hours and Face the Nation. Trump launches…
Trump gushes over 'very skilled' Melania Trump at executive order signingFox News · 16 h agoPresident Donald Trump praises first lady Melania Trump's work on an executive order to establish a women's health division at the National Institutes of Health and a White House Women's Health Task Force. Trump gushes over 'very skilled'…
SEE IT: President Donald Trump and First Lady Melania Trump sign executive order on women's healthFox News · 11 h agoPresident Donald Trump and First Lady Melania Trump sign an executive order focused on advancing women's health, then hand out commemorative pens to Cabinet members involved in the initiative. SEE IT: President Donald Trump and First Lady…
Trump’s growing Ukraine backlashPOLITICO · 14 h agoThe unofficial guide to official Washington, every morning and weekday afternoons. You will now start receiving email updates 10/19/2026 02:08 PM EDT President Donald Trump’s recent pivot toward working more with Russian President Vladimir…
President Trump defends Russia sanctions waiverFox News · 13 h agoU.S. Army Maj. Gen. James 'Spider' Marks discusses President Donald Trump's role in the Russia-Ukraine conflict on 'America Reports.' ... President Trump defends Russia sanctions waiver U.S. Army Maj. Gen. James 'Spider' Marks discusses…
Trump faces backlash over Russian oilCBS News · 19 h agoCBS News Boston 9am CBS News Chicago 8am CBS News Colorado This Morning 7am CBS News Detroit 9am CBS News Los Angeles Mornings 6am CBS News Miami 9am
Sticker tycoon. Trump cheerleader. Rapper. Congressman?the Guardian · 22 h agoAnthony Constantino wants to fill Elise Stefanik’s seat in New York. But his lead in the formerly Trump-loving district is narrowing The boss of a New York-based sticker company, whose staunch support for Donald Trump prompted him to…
Starshield Gives Trump Massive Power Over UkraineNewsweek · 12 h agoOct 19, 2026 at 11:58 AM EDT As confusion reigned over who was responsible for abruptly imposing limits on Ukraine's use of the Starshield satellite system, one thing did become obvious: Kyiv remains painfully at the mercy of U.S. whims…
Trump waives new Russia sanctionssemafor.com · 34 h agoUS President Donald Trump waived new sanctions on Russia days before they were set to take effect, reversing a bipartisan congressional push and raising fresh questions about Washington’s commitment to Ukraine. Trump waives new Russia…
2026 Midterm Elections: Trump Campaigns in KansasFox News · 19 h agoPresident Donald Trump is taking his midterm campaign to Kansas as Democrats look to regain ground with Latino and rural voters in competitive House and Senate races. President Donald Trump is scheduled to rally for Republican Sen. Roger…
GOP lawmakers scramble to spare Ukraine from TrumpPOLITICO · 10 h agoLawmakers are struggling to find a way to convince the president to stop cozying up to Russia. President Donald Trump speaks with reporters before boarding Marine One on the South Lawn of the White House on Monday. (Francis Chung/POLITICO…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onthe White House, Federal Register, the President of the United States

Trading closesMar 31, 2027 11:59 PM ET

Traded$1.5K (4,119 contracts)

Today$18

This week$1.5K

At stake$1.1K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If Donald Trump has taken any executive action declaring a national emergency after Issuance and before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.