Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
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Who will Elon Musk back a primary against in 2026?
The odds
3%Mike Johnson
- Mike Johnson3%
- Tom Cole2%
- Steve Daines2%
- Kevin Cramer2%
- John Thune2%
How the odds have moved
Mike Johnson: 3% on Oct 20, 3% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Johnson | 3% | 0¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 8.5K | |
| Tom Cole | 2% | 2¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | 1.4K | |
| Steve Daines | 2% | 2¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | 1.5K | |
| Kevin Cramer | 2% | 1¢ | 3¢ | $34.48 | 1.3K | |
| John Thune | 2% | 0¢ | 3¢ | $34.48 | 3.5K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Elon Musk, Musk, Mike Johnson
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Elon Musk Says Ukraine Violated Starlink TermsOct 24, 2026 at 05:30 PM EDT Amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, Elon Musk said Kyiv violated the terms of SpaceX’s commercial Starlink service by using it for offensive drone strikes, as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said… -
Elon Musk says SpaceX closed Ukraine Starlink ‘loophole’ after limits hit drone operationsElon Musk has said his company imposed limits on the use of its Starlink satellite system in Ukraine last week, after curbs led to disruption to Ukrainian military operations. Ukraine said Saturday that both Starlink, run by Musk’s SpaceX… -
Democrat James Talarico targets Elon Musk at rally: ‘Texas is not for sale’The Senate candidate denounced opponent Ken Paxton, calling out corruption allegations and support from Musk James Talarico, the Democratic candidate for the US Senate in Texas, has taken aim at Elon Musk, warning that the tech mogul is… -
Trump praises Elon Musk as a 'genius' while defending him against potential Democratic probesPresident Donald Trump told FOX Business that Americans have an "obligation to protect our geniuses," defending Elon Musk as a "brilliant guy" when asked whether Democrats could target the billionaire if they win control of Congress… -
Ukraine's Starlink restored as Elon Musk claims Kyiv violated terms of service 'to kill people'Fox News chief national security correspondent Jennifer Griffin reports on the fallout over Starlink satellite system restrictions in Ukraine on ‘Special Report.’ He explained that Starshield is a different system controlled by the U.S… -
How Elon Musk's Starlink and Starshield are shaping the war in UkraineElon Musk's Starlink and Starshield satellite networks play different roles in Ukraine's fight against Russia. Here's how the two systems work, how they're used on the battlefield and why Ukraine's reliance on them could be a… -
Elon Musk’s dangerous grip on outer spaceAs SpaceX throttles Ukraine’s Starshield, experts warn that Elon Musk’s de facto monopoly over launch and satellite tech poses a major threat to global security. The finger-pointing is of little interest to Ukrainians, who are focused on… -
Elon Musk Just Dumped Another $76 Million Into the MidtermsElon Musk gave his personal political committee, America PAC, more than $76 million in the first two weeks of October to boost Republicans in the final stretch of the midterms, according to a pre-election report the PAC filed Thursday… -
Texas Senate race: Talarico campaign turns its fire on Elon MuskJames Talarico's campaign hit back at Elon Musk Thursday, calling the 2026 election cycle's top spender out for his cash infusion in the Texas Senate race amid an ongoing feud between the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Texas and the… -
SpaceX Filing Gives Elon Musk the Final Word on Tesla Merger He Says He’s Staying Out OfElon Musk recused himself from the SpaceX-Tesla merger talks. His company’s SEC filing suggests that doesn’t mean much. SpaceX’s October 22 10-Q disclosed that any potential combination with Tesla “would be subject to further approval by… -
Mike Johnson's future hangs in balance as the 'accidental speaker' marks 3 yearsSpeaker of the House Mike Johnson discusses the GOP effort to keep control of Congress as the midterm elections near. Johnson also weighs in on Russian sanctions and more during 'Sunday Morning Futures.' Three years ago today marked the… -
Elon Musk spends $500K on New York GOP congressman's re-election bidRep. Mike Lawler, R-N.Y., discusses Elon Musk's $500,000 contribution to his re-election effort and the influence of socialist candidates on ‘Hannity.’ Elon Musk spends $500K on New York GOP congressman's re-election bid Rep. Mike Lawler…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions