Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by...?
46%December 31, 2027
- December 31, 20266%▼ 2
- June 30, 202715%▼ 2
- December 31, 202746%▲ 4
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Moonshot AI share of spend on Nov 4, 2026 (Vercel)
The odds
7.1%median
3.2%10.3%
Median 7.1%
How the odds have moved
Not enough history yet.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 4.4% | 77% | 73¢ | 80¢ | $1.25 | 12.00 | |
| Above 5.6% | 65% | 61¢ | 69¢ | $1.45 | 38.00 | |
| Above 6.4% | 57% | 54¢ | 61¢ | $1.64 | 12.00 | |
| Above 6.9% | 52% | 49¢ | 54¢ | $1.85 | 17.00 | |
| Above 7.3% | 49% | 46¢ | 51¢ | $1.96 | 19.00 | |
| Above 8.8% | 38% | 36¢ | 40¢ | $2.50 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Moonshot AI, Vercel
Search ›- v0 or a whole project? Where Vercel's agent fits, and where it stopsHalfcycle is a team of AI agents that plans, builds, checks and tests software inside Claude Code. We make it, so read this with that in mind; the full comparison, with every source, is on our site. v0 is Vercel's AI agent for building web…
- Vercel's agent-desktop Gives Your Coding Agent Hands on the Whole Desktop — Without Screenshots, Explained HonestlyNothing here is sponsored — no affiliate links on this page. This breaking article is not the daily buyer-intent post. Facts below come from the four sources listed at the end, checked 31 October 2026. Where a figure comes from the builder…
- Why Your v0 or Bolt App Fails to Deploy on Vercel (and How to Fix It)The real cause is earlier in the build log. Scroll up to the first red line. Run npm run build locally and fix each error. As a temporary measure only, you can skip the type check: Since Next.js 16, next build no longer runs ESLint, and…
- Vercel's agent-desktop Gives Agents Computer UseI built this page. For what it covers, hire an engineer: it works in your repo behind an approval gate, so nothing reaches your world unclassified. Vercel Labs has released agent-desktop, an open-source tool that lets any AI agent see and…
- Kimi K3.1 Pro: Moonshot's AI That Rivals Claude, for LessKimi K3.1 Pro is the first model in Moonshot AI's K3.1 series and, in the company's words, its "most capable 3T-class open-weight model to date." It is not a brand-new base model — Moonshot describes it as "a post-trained version of Kimi…
- Vercel Labs Open-Sources agent-desktop for Agent Computer Useagent-desktop is a Rust CLI and C library from Vercel Labs for reading and operating desktop apps. It is a tool that agents call, not an agent. It embeds no LLM and has no GUI. Every command prints one JSON envelope and exits. The observe…
- Amazon CEO predicts 6 to 8 AI models will be ‘good enough’ for almost everythingAmazon CEO Andy Jassy expects the frontier AI model race to produce several competitive models rather than a single winner, telling analysts on Amazon’s Q3 2026 earnings call Thursday that the challenge ahead will be choosing among models…
- The Frontier Keeps Climbing, But the Open-Weight Gap Is Closing FastThis edition of the Model Releases Digest covers what's new from 2026-10-17 through 2026-10-31: a new frontier leader from Google DeepMind, a brand-new category of interactive world model, a cheaper fast-tier model from OpenAI, a…
- Veracode Finds First Meaningful Gain in AI Code Security Since 2025 as Average Pass Rate Hits 62%29 Oct 2026 - 13:27 Claude Opus 5.5 and GPT-6-Sol Lead the Way Claude Opus 5.5 (Anthropic) Claude Sonnet 5.5 (Anthropic) Claude Sonnet 5 (Anthropic) Gemini 3.8 Flash (Google) Gemini 3.7 Flash (Google) DeepSeek V4 Pro (DeepSeek) Kimi K3…
- Self-Hosted Vercel and Heroku Alternatives, ComparedSearching for a self-hosted Vercel alternative turns up a long list, and the names do different things. Some copy the Heroku git push workflow. Some are dashboards over Docker. Some also want you to run a cluster. This post sorts them out…
- Darwin-180B-RSI: How VIDRAFT's Recursive Self-Improvement Model Topped 7 Hugging Face Leaderboards — Without Legal Training DataThe core design principle is Recursive Self-Improvement at the weight level — a conceptually distinct approach from system-level self-improvement (like prompt tuning or tool-orchestration loops that leave base weights unchanged). Here's…
- Darwin-180B-RSI Tops Global Legal Reasoning Benchmarks — Without Ever Training on Legal DataDarwin-180B-RSI is a 180-billion-parameter reasoning model developed by VIDRAFT (비드래프트), a Korean AI startup. Its headline result: #1 on both LEXam and LEXam-hard, two Hugging Face-certified legal reasoning benchmarks developed by ETH…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions